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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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Posted: December 4, 2005, 11:19 am - IP Logged

The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $41.6M  The new estimated annuity jackpot is $87M.  The jackpot reached $38.6M, annuity on this draw.    It seems reasonable to predict around 19M in sales to estimate the probabilities of various numbers of winners.

If the sales are close to this figure, this table gives the probability of various numbers of winners:

087.81%
111.42%
20.74%
30.03%


 

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    Morrison, IL
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    May 13, 2004
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    Posted: December 4, 2005, 12:24 pm - IP Logged

      You think maybe Powerball takes money from their jackpot to fund the set prize reserve sometimes?

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      New Jersey
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      Posted: December 4, 2005, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

        You think maybe Powerball takes money from their jackpot to fund the set prize reserve sometimes?

      It would certainly seem so.

      The predicted jackpots seem not to be tracking sales very well.  The cash jackpots are now normally higher than promised.  An estimate based on the predicted jackpots now advertised would seem to suggest that the lottery only expects 10 million in sales.  This is obviously ridiculous.

      Another explanation would be that there has been a decision to under promise on early jackpots in hopes of raising the probabilities of large jackpots.  The sales for the single drawing of the "$340M" jackpot alone were greater than the first 10 drawings of that run combined.   Thus there is arguably some sense in keeping the enthusiasm for smaller jackpots lower, and going for the big one at the end.

       


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        Posted: December 4, 2005, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

        lotterys are a big scrooge this time of year,taking,taking,taking!

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          Morrison, IL
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          May 13, 2004
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          Posted: December 4, 2005, 11:24 pm - IP Logged

            You think maybe Powerball takes money from their jackpot to fund the set prize reserve sometimes?

          It would certainly seem so.

          The predicted jackpots seem not to be tracking sales very well.  The cash jackpots are now normally higher than promised.  An estimate based on the predicted jackpots now advertised would seem to suggest that the lottery only expects 10 million in sales.  This is obviously ridiculous.

          Another explanation would be that there has been a decision to under promise on early jackpots in hopes of raising the probabilities of large jackpots.  The sales for the single drawing of the "$340M" jackpot alone were greater than the first 10 drawings of that run combined.   Thus there is arguably some sense in keeping the enthusiasm for smaller jackpots lower, and going for the big one at the end.

           

            That is a very risky plan if they are underpromising in order to raise the probability of a large jackpot.  On one hand, yes, less sales per draw increases the chance of it rolling over every time, but on the other hand, the jackpot now has to survive more drawings to get so high.

            The theory of funding the set prize reserve makes sense; their "estimated" cash value option jumped $5.2 million from the last drawing's estimated CVO, which would assume $17.1 million in sales, which is reasonable, so maybe they do a one time cut from the jackpot early in the run to fund the set prize reserve.

            bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

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            Posted: December 4, 2005, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

            lotterys are a big scrooge this time of year,taking,taking,taking!

            My theory as to why the jackpots are lower around this time of year is because of the holidays. After Thanksgiving, people tend to do their shopping and the lottery isn't on their list. So as peoples wallets take a hit from gifts, so does the jackpots increments.

            Dance like no one is watching.


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              Posted: December 5, 2005, 9:29 am - IP Logged

              yes,and they,re very stingy with their winnings they dish out,trying to save money to give out x mas bonuses to lottery employees,teachers,etc!

                bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

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                Posted: December 5, 2005, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

                yes,and they,re very stingy with their winnings they dish out,trying to save money to give out x mas bonuses to lottery employees,teachers,etc!

                Who the lottery officials or the shoppers?

                Dance like no one is watching.


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                  Posted: December 5, 2005, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

                  lottery officials,in my 20 years experience;at x mas time,they know everyone buys a few x tra tickets.

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: December 5, 2005, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

                      You think maybe Powerball takes money from their jackpot to fund the set prize reserve sometimes?

                    It would certainly seem so.

                    The predicted jackpots seem not to be tracking sales very well.  The cash jackpots are now normally higher than promised.  An estimate based on the predicted jackpots now advertised would seem to suggest that the lottery only expects 10 million in sales.  This is obviously ridiculous.

                    Another explanation would be that there has been a decision to under promise on early jackpots in hopes of raising the probabilities of large jackpots.  The sales for the single drawing of the "$340M" jackpot alone were greater than the first 10 drawings of that run combined.   Thus there is arguably some sense in keeping the enthusiasm for smaller jackpots lower, and going for the big one at the end.

                     

                      That is a very risky plan if they are underpromising in order to raise the probability of a large jackpot.  On one hand, yes, less sales per draw increases the chance of it rolling over every time, but on the other hand, the jackpot now has to survive more drawings to get so high.

                      The theory of funding the set prize reserve makes sense; their "estimated" cash value option jumped $5.2 million from the last drawing's estimated CVO, which would assume $17.1 million in sales, which is reasonable, so maybe they do a one time cut from the jackpot early in the run to fund the set prize reserve.

                    Actually, according to www.Lottoreport.com or http://www.lottoreport.com/salescomparison.htm#pb2005the sales have reached 127.5M for this run without a winner.  This means the jackpot was roughly 38.6M.  The proposed jackpot increase is thus only 9.87 M in tickets, if the jackpot for cash is 30.28855%.  (I recall you corrected me when this percentage changed earlier.  If I am mistaken in this, please let me know.)

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: December 8, 2005, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

                      The powerball jackpot has rolled over and is now predicted to be $47.8M cash or $100M annuity.  On the last run for a large jackpot (the one that reached $340M annuity) there were annuity jackpots of $92M and $108M.  The sales average for these two jackpots (the average value of the annuity jackpot is exactly the average of these two) was $20.6M.  If the lottery sells $20.6M in tickets this time, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:


                      086.85%
                      112.25%
                      20.86%
                      30.04%



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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: December 11, 2005, 11:19 am - IP Logged

                        The powerball jackpot has rolled over and is now predicted to be $54.2M cash or $112M annuity.  The jackpot reached a cash value of $49.9M, based on the www.lottoreport.com sales figures.  My last sales estimate was $20.6M based on looking at jackpots from the previous run, and this was only off by 0.1M.  (The jackpot figures are clearly understated in the advertising at this time and thus do not really predict sales.)  By linear extrapolation from data from the previous large run, I am going to estimate that the next drawing will have $22.7M in sales.   If is this is correct, if the lottery sells $22.7M in tickets this time, the probability of various numbers of winners is given in the following table:

                        085.59%
                        113.32%
                        21.04%
                        30.05%


                         

                        The powerball lottery now has about a 9% chance of matching the last jackpot, and a 3% roughly, of rolling once past it.  These are rough numbers  Note that the exact values of such jackpots are complicated by the prize cap, which will click in at $365M, and of course, by the fact that the last jackpot was so capped.

                        The probability is about 47% that the jackpot will roll 4 more times, giving a jackpot that will probably be in the $180M-200M annuity range.

                         

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: December 11, 2005, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

                          When I said " The powerball lottery now has about a 9% chance of matching the last jackpot, and a 3% roughly, of rolling once past it" in the my last post, I was referring to matching the last big jackpot, i.e. the $340M jackpot. 

                          I made a mistake inasmuch as this wasn't clear.

                           


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                            Posted: December 11, 2005, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

                            will the winner of next powerball be taxed this year or next,i wonder?

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: December 15, 2005, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                              The Powerball jackpot has been won.  The prize resets to $15M annuity, $7.3 cash.  I estimate about 14,000,000 in sales which gives the following rollover probabilities:

                               

                              090.86%
                              18.71%
                              20.42%
                              30.01%
                                 
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