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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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Posted: October 30, 2005, 10:43 am - IP Logged

The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $17.2.  The (inflated) annuity value is $36M.  The previous cash jackpot was, based on sales, almost $13.1M.  The lottery apparently anticipates selling about 13.7M tickets.  The probabilities of various numbers of winners is roughly given as follows.

 

091.05%
18.54%
20.40%
30.01%


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    New Jersey
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    Posted: November 3, 2005, 7:21 am - IP Logged

    Powerball beat the odds and someone won it.  The prize resets to $15M annuity, $7.2 cash.  I estimate about 14,000,000 in sales which gives the following rollover probabilities:

     

    090.86%
    18.71%
    20.42%
    30.01%


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      Greenwich, CT
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      May 24, 2004
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      Posted: November 3, 2005, 9:30 am - IP Logged

      Thanks for keeping up with the probabilities.  Can't keep dodging a 10% chance every time.

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: November 7, 2005, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

        The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $9.4M.  The annuity jackpot is $20M. The previous cash jackpot was, based on sales, almost $4.7M.  The lotteries sales in the last $20M drawing was 13.5M.  Assuming this repeats, the probabilities of various numbers of winners is roughly given as follows:

        091.17%
        18.42%
        20.39%
        30.01%


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          New Jersey
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          Posted: November 10, 2005, 9:14 am - IP Logged

          The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $11.8M.  The annuity jackpot is $25M. The previous cash jackpot was, based on sales, $7.9M.  This means the lottery expects to sell about $12.7M in tickets.  The probability of various number of winners is given in the following table:

          091.67%
          17.97%
          20.35%
          30.01%


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            New Jersey
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            Posted: November 13, 2005, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

            The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $15M.  The annuity jackpot is $31M. The sales figures have not been reported as of yet on www.lottoreport.com.  However it is reasonable to suppose that sales will be around $14M.  If so, the probabilities for various numbers is given in the following table:

            090.86%
            18.71%
            20.42%
            30.01%


             

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              New Jersey
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              Posted: November 17, 2005, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

              The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $19.2M.  The annuity jackpot is $40M.  The cash value of the previous jackpot reached almost $16M, based on sales.  For the last 4 draws the average sales figure has been 13.2M with a range between 12.6M and 13.7M.  I will use the average figure to approximate the sales for the next drawing at 13.2.  A rough idea of the probability of rollovers and numbers of winners for the next draw is given in the following table: 

              091.36%
              18.25%
              20.37%
              30.01%



                United States
                Member #9579
                December 12, 2004
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                Posted: November 18, 2005, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

                i think if we all double our purchase to 2.00,instead of 1.00,it will double the chances of the lottery to give their workers a christmas BONUS!

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: November 20, 2005, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                  The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $22.9M.  The annuity jackpot is $47M.  The cash value of the previous jackpot was advertised as having a cash value of 19.2M.  This implies that the lottery expects to sell 11.3 million tickets.  If they sell what they expect, the probability of a given number of winners is given in the following table:

                   

                  092.56%
                  17.16%
                  20.28%
                  30.01%


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                    Morrison, IL
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                    Posted: November 20, 2005, 11:49 pm - IP Logged

                      I think they should sell more than 11.3 million tickets.  They should sell at least 14 million.  I don't know how the heck the MUSL is coming up with their estimates --  the "estimated" CVO should be at least $24 million or so!!

                      While lottoreport.com has not come up with the actual sales figure for the Saturday 11/19 draw, Powerball's press release reports $16.6 million worth of tickets, including PowerPlay; it's a reasonable estimate that 10% of that figure is from PowerPlay sales, so that leaves 14.9 million tickets that were sold for that drawing.

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                      New Jersey
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                      Posted: November 21, 2005, 11:40 am - IP Logged

                      The lottopost figures for the last drawing are in, roughly 14.4 million were sold.

                      The lotteries may be hedging their bets on Thanksgiving sales.

                      In any case, the probability of a rollover does not fall below 90% until there are $18M in sales.  I don't expect that the actual sales will be as low as $12M, but I don't think they'll be much higher than $15M or $16M.

                       


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                        Posted: November 21, 2005, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

                        that's a lotta turkey gobble gobble!

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: November 25, 2005, 11:52 am - IP Logged

                          The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $27.7M  The annuity jackpot is $57M.  It is reasonable to expect that the lottery will sell around $14M in tickets.  If so, the probability of various numbers of winner is given as follows:

                           

                          090.68%
                          18.87%
                          20.43%
                          30.01%


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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: November 27, 2005, 10:34 am - IP Logged

                            The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $32M  The previous annuity jackpot is $67M.  The jackpot reached $28.9M, annuity or 1.3 M more than advertised, meaning they predicted $4.2M less sales than they actually received on the previous drawing.  For some reason Powerball seems to be underestimating their prospective sales recently.  For the last 3 drawings, sales have been almost constant, within a few tens of thousands of dollars of $14.3M.  It seems reasonable to use this figure 14.3M once again to estimate the probabilities of various numbers of winners.

                            This table gives those rollover probabilities:

                             

                            090.68%
                            18.87%
                            20.43%
                            30.01%


                            The curve fitting methods I use in MegaMillions don't work very well with Powerball, possibly because there is less data to work with, and also because Powerball has not had a new large run that is completely determined by the events under the new odds structure.  (It switched midway during the $340M annuity run.)  Also the powerball is comprised of smaller states in general, therefore the same type of regular exponential playing may not apply in these populations.  Whatever the case, I can only use the raw data from that last run to estimate the long term probability.  For what it's worth, here it is:

                             

                            JackpotSalesSingle Draw RolloverAll Draws Rollover
                            $340 $165,702,055 32.17%1.86%
                            $300 $93,711,624 52.66%5.78%
                            $240 $63,285,429 64.85%10.98%
                            $205 $50,064,288 70.99%16.93%
                            $180 $36,688,866 77.79%23.85%
                            $167 $33,384,475 79.57%30.66%
                            $148 $27,917,824 82.61%38.53%
                            $126 $25,826,780 83.80%46.64%
                            $108 $21,843,529 86.11%55.66%
                            $92 $19,369,471 87.58%64.64%
                            $80 $15,733,224 89.79%73.80%
                            $70 $15,751,153 89.78%82.19%
                            $60 $12,903,742 91.55%91.55%


                             

                            The sales figures are those taken from www.lottoreport.com  There are better than even odds right now, if the run is similar, of exceeding a $100M million annuity jackpot, and about a 17% of exceeding $200M annuity.

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                              New Jersey
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                              Posted: December 2, 2005, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                              The powerball has rolled over and the new estimated cash jackpot is $36.4M  The previous annuity jackpot is $75M.  The jackpot reached $33.4M, annuity.  For some reason Powerball seems to be underestimating their prospective sales recently.  For the last 4 drawings, sales have been almost constant in the $14-15 million range.  (The last drawing was around 14.8)  It seems reasonable to predict 15M in sales to estimate the probabilities of various numbers of winners.

                              This table gives the probability of various numbers of winners:

                              090.24%
                              19.26%
                              20.48%
                              30.02%


                                 
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