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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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Member #21206
September 4, 2005
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Posted: September 8, 2005, 10:40 am - IP Logged

A reasonable estimate for the total sales at Powerball for the upcoming $70 million jackpot for Sept 10, based on recent performance, is about 14 million tickets.  If so, the following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

 

090.86%
18.71%
20.42%
30.01%



    United States
    Member #16612
    June 2, 2005
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    Posted: September 9, 2005, 5:40 pm - IP Logged

    I think that's a good probability that no one will hit the PB jackpot. I hope the PB reaches $365 million and one ticket winning it all.

      dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

      United States
      Member #2338
      September 17, 2003
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      Posted: September 10, 2005, 1:36 am - IP Logged

      Yes but Powerballs cash prize is like a deflated balloon now. I would far rather win a large Megamillions prize.

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: September 11, 2005, 2:16 am - IP Logged

        Powerball has rolled over again.  The cash prize has risen from 35.5 million to 40.5 million.  (The advertised jackpot is $80M.)  This means that the lottery expects to sell about 15 million tickets.  The following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

        090.24%
        19.26%
        20.48%
        30.02%
        40.00%


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          New Jersey
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          Posted: September 15, 2005, 10:27 am - IP Logged

          The powerball jackpot has rolled over with the cash value rising from 40.5M to 46.5 million.  This means Powerball expects to sell about 18.5 million tickets.

          The following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

           

          088.17%
          111.10%
          20.70%
          30.03%


           

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            New Jersey
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            Posted: September 18, 2005, 2:12 pm - IP Logged

            The powerball jackpot has rolled over with the cash value rising from 46.5M to 53.1 million.  This means Powerball expects to sell about 20.2 million tickets.

            The following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

             

            087.09%
            112.04%
            20.83%
            30.04%


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              New Jersey
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              Posted: September 22, 2005, 1:38 am - IP Logged

              The powerball jackpot has rolled over with the cash value rising from 53.1M to 62.2 million.  This means Powerball expects to sell about 27.9 million tickets.

              The following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

               

              082.64%
              115.76%
              21.50%
              30.10%


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                New Member
                Riverside, Ca
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                Member #21721
                September 14, 2005
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                Posted: September 22, 2005, 2:00 am - IP Logged

                why do you want only one ticket to win?

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: September 22, 2005, 2:59 am - IP Logged

                  why do you want only one ticket to win?

                  I have nothing to do with it.  The probability of a particular number of winners is determined by the number of tickets purchased and the odds of winning the lottery.  It is also possible for an improbable event to occur, for instance, and outcome with a less than 1% probability is still a possibility.

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                    New Jersey
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                    Posted: September 25, 2005, 2:02 am - IP Logged

                    The powerball jackpot has rolled over.  Based on sales, the cash value of the jackpot proved to be around 64 million.  Powerball predicts that the new cash value will be around 73.4 million.  This means Powerball expects to sell about 28.2 million tickets.

                    The following table gives the probability that the number of winners listed in the first column will be represented by the percentage given in the second column:

                     

                    082.47%
                    115.89%
                    21.53%
                    30.10%


                      dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                      Posted: September 25, 2005, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

                      What would you say the odds are of it breaking 300 million? Thanks for keeping up on the projections.

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                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: September 25, 2005, 8:31 pm - IP Logged

                         

                        You're welcome.

                        As was the case with the recent MM run-up, we are entering a new area, because the odds have changed.  But a crude estimate assuming sales from late May of this year when the jackpot hit $220 million, I'd estimate that the probability of a "$300M" prize would take three more rollovers, with an overall probability of around 30-35%.

                        Keep in mind though that a $300+ plus jackpot may not be equivalent to what Jack Whittaker won.  Besides lengthening the odds, Powerball has messed with the annuity structure in an attempt to make the prize seem bigger than they could under the previous structure.

                        The pretax cash value of Jack's prize was $170,505,876.33

                        This is the value to keep your eye on, since it will determine whether or not the drawing is really a record breaker.

                         

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: September 29, 2005, 8:50 am - IP Logged

                          The powerball has rolled over again, and now the cash value has risen to 83.1 million dollars.  The cash value calculated from the sales on this run suggest that the cas value was around 73.3 million for this jackpot.  This means that the powerball authorities predict that they will sell about 29.9 million tickets.  The probabilities for numbers of winners that will result from this drawing are given in the following table:

                           

                                 k, number of winners              p(m,k)
                          081.48%
                          116.69%
                          21.71%
                          30.12%
                          40.01%


                           

                           

                           

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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: September 29, 2005, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

                            It has been difficult to estimate the overall probability of a record breaking jackpot because the changed game does seem to have effected sales figures considerably.  The assumptions in my last post on this subject have probably not been validated by events.

                            In order to meet or exceed Whitaker's jackpot, powerball would need to sell about $280M worth of tickets more than have already been sold. 

                            The last three drawings of a jackpot advertised as being greater than $150 million (annuity), which ended with the winning of a $220 million (annuity) jackpot, sales averaged around $53 million.  If this sales figure were reached by reproducing the average from that jackpot, it would take 5-6 drawings and 4-5 rollovers to meet or exceed Jack.  The overall probability of that happening, given the high odds, is not all that improbable.   It's somewhere around 35-40%.  Although it's not likely, it is still very possible.

                            These impressions are all very tentative because of the untested conditions and could be wrong.

                            For the Christmas day drawing that Jack won back in 2003, the sales were $163.3M.  Somehow I don't believe that powerball will have a single drawing like that in the future.    However were a drawing with that many sales, there would still be around a 30% possibility of yet another rollover at today's odds.

                             


                             

                             

                             

                              Atomic Dog's avatar - sniffer
                              Minnesota
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                              March 28, 2005
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                              Posted: September 29, 2005, 1:14 pm - IP Logged

                              It has been difficult to estimate the overall probability of a record breaking jackpot because the changed game does seem to have effected sales figures considerably.  The assumptions in my last post on this subject have probably not been validated by events.

                              In order to meet or exceed Whitaker's jackpot, powerball would need to sell about $280M worth of tickets more than have already been sold. 

                              The last three drawings of a jackpot advertised as being greater than $150 million (annuity), which ended with the winning of a $220 million (annuity) jackpot, sales averaged around $53 million.  If this sales figure were reached by reproducing the average from that jackpot, it would take 5-6 drawings and 4-5 rollovers to meet or exceed Jack.  The overall probability of that happening, given the high odds, is not all that improbable.   It's somewhere around 35-40%.  Although it's not likely, it is still very possible.

                              These impressions are all very tentative because of the untested conditions and could be wrong.

                              For the Christmas day drawing that Jack won back in 2003, the sales were $163.3M.  Somehow I don't believe that powerball will have a single drawing like that in the future.    However were a drawing with that many sales, there would still be around a 30% possibility of yet another rollover at today's odds.

                               


                               

                               

                               

                              INCREDIBLE STATS and POST PROB!

                              I totally love this type of info!

                              Keep it coming!

                              Good Luck,

                              John

                              P.S. Do you do probability for other drawings/state drawings as well?  Let us know!  Thanks!

                              BOW WOW WOW ......

                              ...... YIPPY YOH YIPPY YAY!!!

                                 
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