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Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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New Jersey
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September 4, 2005
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Posted: February 12, 2006, 1:52 am - IP Logged

The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $145.7M; the annuity value is $300M.    The $300M annuity jackpot last time out sold about 93.7M in tickets.  If the value were the same now, this would represent the probability of various numbers of winners:

052.66%
133.77%
210.83%
32.31%
40.37%
50.05%
60.01%

There is about a 17% of two rolls before a winner.

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    New Jersey
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    Posted: February 16, 2006, 7:15 am - IP Logged

    The powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is now $177.3M; the annuity value is $365M.    The last annuity jackpot to reach the cap sold about 165.7M in tickets.  If the value were the same now, this would represent the probability of various numbers of winners:

    032.17%
    136.49%
    220.69%
    37.82%
    42.22%
    50.50%
    60.10%
    70.02%

    Any guess about what would happen in another rollover would be pure speculation.  That would be new territory with no history. 

     

     


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      Posted: February 17, 2006, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

      Prob988, I think someone has to win the PB Jackpot on this draw or later. However, there is a new PB poll thread just running right now about how many more times will it roll?

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        New Jersey
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        Posted: February 17, 2006, 11:00 pm - IP Logged

        Prob988, I think someone has to win the PB Jackpot on this draw or later. However, there is a new PB poll thread just running right now about how many more times will it roll?

        The best bet is that the prize will be won this time out. 

        However, there is a reasonable chance, about 30%, it will rollover.  It is certainly plausible that there will be another rollover, but it is not likely.

        If sales stay flat, and they could, with the cap, the likelihood of two rollovers is about 9%, which is more than possible, but not probable. 

         

         

         

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          Morrison, IL
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          Posted: February 18, 2006, 1:23 am - IP Logged

          Two more rollovers and we'll have our first $400+ millon jackpot!!!

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            New Jersey
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            Posted: February 19, 2006, 8:38 am - IP Logged

            The powerball has been won.  The jackpot is reset.

            After a very large jackpot, the reset drawing usually sells a slightly larger number of tickets than it previously did.  After the last capped jackpot, PB sold about 15.6M tickets.  If this repeats, than the probability of particular numbers is given by the following table:

            089.87%
            19.60%
            20.51%
            30.02%
             

             

             

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              Sparta, NJ
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              Posted: February 19, 2006, 9:41 am - IP Logged

              You think it is higher because people bought for more than more draw.  I did, incase it rolled, I would not have to go back again.  One time chance.  Now I won't buy until PB is back to the $100M plus range.  How often does the next draw hit?

              Cheers

              |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

              I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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                New Jersey
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                Posted: February 23, 2006, 10:42 am - IP Logged

                The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is $9.2M.  The annuity value is $20 M.  The running average for second draws since the recent matrix change is $12.7M in sales.  If the number of tickets sold remains close to this average, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

                 

                091.67%
                17.97%
                20.35%
                30.01%

                 

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                  New Jersey
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                  Posted: February 26, 2006, 8:35 am - IP Logged

                  The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash value is $13.2M.  The annuity value is $27 M.  The running average for third draws since the recent matrix change is $14.8M in sales.  If the number of tickets sold remains close to this average, the probability of various numbers of winners is:

                  090.37%
                  19.15%
                  20.46%
                  30.02%

                  Modeling functions do not work well in Powerball yet, but based on average sales, I estimate that there is roughly a 50% probability at this point of a jackpot in the area of $90M.  There is a 4% chance of approximately matching the $365M jackpot and a slightly 1% chance of exceeding it.

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                    Morrison, IL
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                    Posted: February 26, 2006, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

                    The jackpot cap before the match 5 bonus pool kicks in is now $390 million.


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                      Posted: February 27, 2006, 6:10 pm - IP Logged

                      Thanks to these brisk sales Prob988 when it reached 365 million, I expect new records if PB continues to roll. I like the jackpot cap just for more interest in PB.

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                        Morrison, IL
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                        Posted: February 27, 2006, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

                        There is a chance that if Powerball sets a new record jackpot, it will land between $365 million and $390 million, in which case there's no match 5 bonus pool, but the cap increases.

                        What I do not understand is why sales increase on runs following very large jackpots. All those rollovers just show how hard the game is to win. You'd think sales would increase on runs following smaller jackpot wins, but as evidenced by last year, that is not the case - after Powerball's lucky string of eight jackpot wins under $50 million, it took Powerball twelve rolls to get over $100 million when it finally broke the string.

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                          New Jersey
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                          Posted: March 2, 2006, 10:17 am - IP Logged

                          The Powerball jackpot has rolled.  The cash jackpot is now 18.6 and the annuity is $38M.

                          The average sales for 4th draws since the matrix change is $13.0M, which is interestingly, lower than the average for 1st draws, for second draws and third draws.  (This is probably because there aren't that many data points.)    If this situation prevails, and the sales for this draw are in fact around $13.0M, the probable number of winners is given in the table below:

                           

                           

                          091.49%
                          18.14%
                          20.36%
                          30.01%

                          Based on historical sales, there is a 55% chance of getting to 10 draws in this series, which would result in an annuity jackpot that would approach $100M.  The probability of getting to 19 draws, where the cap would probably kick in, seems to be around 4%.  The probability of getting to a 20th draw is less than 2%.

                           

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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: March 2, 2006, 10:19 am - IP Logged

                            There is a chance that if Powerball sets a new record jackpot, it will land between $365 million and $390 million, in which case there's no match 5 bonus pool, but the cap increases.

                            What I do not understand is why sales increase on runs following very large jackpots. All those rollovers just show how hard the game is to win. You'd think sales would increase on runs following smaller jackpot wins, but as evidenced by last year, that is not the case - after Powerball's lucky string of eight jackpot wins under $50 million, it took Powerball twelve rolls to get over $100 million when it finally broke the string.

                            I suspect that the reason is that when many people cash in small winners, they just ask to buy another ticket.

                            Another possibility is represented by out-of-staters who buy Advance Play tickets in case the jackpot rolls again, to avoid the necessity of travel back to a Powerball state.

                            I really don't know why the situation is what it is, but it does seem to prevail.

                             

                             

                             

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                              Sparta, NJ
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                              Posted: March 2, 2006, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

                              There is a chance that if Powerball sets a new record jackpot, it will land between $365 million and $390 million, in which case there's no match 5 bonus pool, but the cap increases.

                              What I do not understand is why sales increase on runs following very large jackpots. All those rollovers just show how hard the game is to win. You'd think sales would increase on runs following smaller jackpot wins, but as evidenced by last year, that is not the case - after Powerball's lucky string of eight jackpot wins under $50 million, it took Powerball twelve rolls to get over $100 million when it finally broke the string.

                              I suspect that the reason is that when many people cash in small winners, they just ask to buy another ticket.

                              Another possibility is represented by out-of-staters who buy Advance Play tickets in case the jackpot rolls again, to avoid the necessity of travel back to a Powerball state.

                              I really don't know why the situation is what it is, but it does seem to prevail.

                               

                               

                               

                              That is exactly what I do for powerball,  buy atleast two draws at a time. If it hit, like it did, I am stuck with a ticket that has almost no chance of winning - but still a chance.  If it rolls, I will already have the ticket for the draw.

                              Cheers

                              |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

                              I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

                                 
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