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# Probability of a Rollover in Powerball.

Topic closed. 310 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Prob988.

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Thread Starter
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 Posted: December 11, 2006, 9:47 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$16M.  The advertised annuity is \$3M.  The average sales for a third drawing are \$15.4M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 90.01% 1 9.47% 2 0.50% 3 0.02%

The linear/exponential model function predicts the following long term evolution of the jackpot.

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$561,837,804.78 \$272,406,208 27.11% 0.28% \$353 \$442,700,373.57 \$214,642,605 37.86% 1.03% \$300 \$354,039,940.23 \$171,655,729 48.54% 2.73% \$245 \$288,060,068.39 \$139,665,488 58.39% 5.63% \$208 \$238,958,757.67 \$115,858,792 67.01% 9.64% \$193 \$202,418,239.35 \$98,142,177 74.24% 14.39% \$180 \$175,225,289.53 \$84,957,716 80.11% 19.38% \$159 \$154,988,671.28 \$75,146,022 83.88% 24.19% \$132 \$138,944,158.71 \$67,366,865 84.51% 28.84% \$119 \$123,586,697.32 \$59,920,823 85.15% 34.13% \$105 \$108,916,287.11 \$52,807,897 85.80% 40.08% \$92 \$94,932,928.08 \$46,028,086 86.44% 46.71% \$79 \$81,636,620.24 \$39,581,392 87.10% 54.04% \$68 \$69,027,363.57 \$33,467,813 87.76% 62.04% \$57 \$57,105,158.09 \$27,687,349 88.42% 70.70% \$47 \$45,870,003.79 \$22,240,002 89.09% 79.96% \$36 \$35,321,900.67 \$17,125,770 89.76% 89.76%
Thread Starter
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 Posted: December 14, 2006, 7:28 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$21.2M.  The advertised annuity is \$43M.  The average sales for a fourth drawing are \$15.2M.

If this is the average number of tickets that sell, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 90.06% 1 9.42% 2 0.49% 3 0.02%

Long term evolution of the jackpot, as modelled mathematically looks like this:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$552,468,651.63 \$272,379,893 27.11% 0.31% \$353 \$435,306,626.65 \$214,616,290 37.86% 1.15% \$300 \$348,116,263.39 \$171,629,414 48.54% 3.04% \$245 \$283,230,397.43 \$139,639,173 58.39% 6.27% \$208 \$234,943,230.79 \$115,832,477 67.01% 10.74% \$193 \$199,008,587.28 \$98,115,862 74.24% 16.03% \$180 \$172,266,521.13 \$84,931,401 80.11% 21.60% \$159 \$152,365,444.29 \$75,119,707 83.88% 26.96% \$132 \$136,585,296.27 \$67,339,727 84.51% 32.14% \$119 \$121,481,769.79 \$59,893,338 85.15% 38.03% \$105 \$107,054,864.85 \$52,780,538 85.80% 44.66% \$92 \$93,304,581.44 \$46,001,329 86.45% 52.05% \$79 \$80,230,919.57 \$39,555,709 87.10% 60.22% \$68 \$67,833,879.24 \$33,443,680 87.76% 69.13% \$57 \$56,113,460.45 \$27,665,241 88.42% 78.78% \$47 \$45,069,663.20 \$22,220,392 89.09% 89.09%
Thread Starter
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 Posted: December 17, 2006, 8:08 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$25.9M.  The advertised annuity is \$53M.  The average sales for a fifth drawing are \$15.9M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 89.68% 1 9.76% 2 0.53% 3 0.02%

The long term mixed linear exponential mathematical model I use - the actual jackpot is only 94% of what the model suggests - predicts the following:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$557,379,704.56 \$272,379,893 27.11% 0.35% \$353 \$439,176,192.61 \$214,616,290 37.86% 1.29% \$300 \$351,210,769.09 \$171,629,414 48.54% 3.42% \$245 \$285,748,113.99 \$139,639,173 58.39% 7.04% \$208 \$237,031,708.83 \$115,832,477 67.01% 12.06% \$193 \$200,777,631.92 \$98,115,862 74.24% 18.00% \$180 \$173,797,847.85 \$84,931,401 80.11% 24.24% \$159 \$153,719,864.60 \$75,119,707 83.88% 30.26% \$132 \$137,799,442.30 \$67,339,727 84.51% 36.08% \$119 \$122,561,656.22 \$59,893,338 85.15% 42.69% \$105 \$108,006,506.37 \$52,780,538 85.80% 50.13% \$92 \$94,133,992.73 \$46,001,329 86.45% 58.43% \$79 \$80,944,115.32 \$39,555,709 87.10% 67.59% \$68 \$68,436,874.13 \$33,443,680 87.76% 77.60% \$57 \$56,612,269.16 \$27,665,241 88.42% 88.42%
Thread Starter
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 Posted: December 21, 2006, 6:36 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$31.6  The advertised annuity is \$65M.  The average sales for a seventh drawing are \$17.1M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 88.93% 1 10.43% 2 0.61% 3 0.02%

The projection models suggests this:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$560,224,471.96 \$272,355,282 27.11% 0.40% \$353 \$441,406,934.12 \$214,591,679 37.86% 1.46% \$300 \$352,984,561.01 \$171,604,802 48.54% 3.87% \$245 \$287,181,850.32 \$139,614,561 58.39% 7.97% \$208 \$238,212,380.47 \$115,807,865 67.01% 13.64% \$193 \$201,769,976.32 \$98,091,250 74.24% 20.36% \$180 \$174,650,041.71 \$84,906,790 80.11% 27.42% \$159 \$154,467,760.37 \$75,095,096 83.88% 34.23% \$132 \$138,467,529.91 \$67,316,522 84.52% 40.81% \$119 \$123,153,648.63 \$59,871,620 85.16% 48.28% \$105 \$108,526,116.52 \$52,760,389 85.80% 56.70% \$92 \$94,584,933.58 \$45,982,829 86.45% 66.09% \$79 \$81,330,099.82 \$39,538,941 87.10% 76.44% \$68 \$68,761,615.23 \$33,428,724 87.76% 87.76%

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 Posted: December 24, 2006, 12:21 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 12/27 has rolled to 75 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot figures out.

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 Posted: December 24, 2006, 12:41 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$36.3M  The advertised annuity is \$75M.  The average sales for a seventh drawing are \$18.5M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 88.11% 1 11.15% 2 0.71% 3 0.03%

Here's the long term:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$562,717,524.28 \$272,355,282 27.11% 0.45% \$353 \$443,371,237.07 \$214,591,679 37.86% 1.67% \$300 \$354,555,375.97 \$171,604,802 48.54% 4.41% \$245 \$288,459,836.94 \$139,614,561 58.39% 9.08% \$208 \$239,272,448.28 \$115,807,865 67.01% 15.54% \$193 \$202,667,871.96 \$98,091,250 74.24% 23.20% \$180 \$175,427,251.05 \$84,906,790 80.11% 31.25% \$159 \$155,155,156.63 \$75,095,096 83.88% 39.00% \$132 \$139,083,723.62 \$67,316,522 84.52% 46.50% \$119 \$123,701,694.11 \$59,871,620 85.16% 55.02% \$105 \$109,009,068.09 \$52,760,389 85.80% 64.61% \$92 \$95,005,845.56 \$45,982,829 86.45% 75.30% \$79 \$81,692,026.52 \$39,538,941 87.10% 87.10%

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 Posted: December 28, 2006, 12:17 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 12/30 has rolled to 88 million.

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 Posted: December 28, 2006, 12:39 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$42.8M  The advertised annuity is \$88M.  The average sales for an ninth drawing are \$21.1M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 86.57% 1 12.49% 2 0.90% 3 0.04%

The long term jackpot evolution suggests the following:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$559,872,365.64 \$272,301,560 27.11% 0.52% \$353 \$441,106,079.08 \$214,537,957 37.86% 1.92% \$300 \$352,721,846.46 \$171,551,080 48.54% 5.06% \$245 \$286,947,519.40 \$139,560,839 58.39% 10.43% \$208 \$237,999,172.26 \$115,754,143 67.01% 17.86% \$193 \$201,572,487.33 \$98,037,528 74.24% 26.65% \$180 \$174,464,250.75 \$84,853,067 80.11% 35.90% \$159 \$154,290,674.92 \$75,041,374 83.89% 44.81% \$132 \$138,311,879.84 \$67,269,869 84.53% 53.41% \$119 \$123,018,131.70 \$59,831,546 85.17% 63.19% \$105 \$108,409,430.50 \$52,726,405 85.81% 74.19% \$92 \$94,485,776.23 \$45,954,446 86.46% 86.46%

The model is off by 5% right now.

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 Posted: January 4, 2007, 1:12 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/6/07 has rolled to 115 million this time.

Thread Starter
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 Posted: January 4, 2007, 9:10 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash jackpot is now \$52.8M  The advertised annuity is \$115M.  The average sales for an 11th drawing are \$24.3M.

If ticket sales are averarge, the randomized distribution of probability of various numbers of winners is:

 0 84.66% 1 14.10% 2 1.17% 3 0.07%

The long term probability function is running ahead of the actual outcome but here it is anyway:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$567,295,716.24 \$272,301,944 27.11% 0.70% \$353 \$446,954,876.64 \$214,538,341 37.86% 2.58% \$300 \$357,398,883.36 \$171,551,464 48.54% 6.82% \$245 \$290,752,548.17 \$139,561,223 58.39% 14.06% \$208 \$241,155,264.61 \$115,754,527 67.01% 24.07% \$193 \$204,245,650.15 \$98,037,912 74.24% 35.92% \$180 \$176,778,024.07 \$84,853,452 80.11% 48.39% \$159 \$156,336,995.53 \$75,041,758 83.89% 60.40% \$132 \$140,146,125.89 \$67,270,140 84.53% 71.99% \$119 \$124,649,414.07 \$59,831,719 85.17% 85.17%

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 Posted: January 7, 2007, 1:24 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/10 has rolled to 131 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot evolution figures now.

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 Posted: January 7, 2007, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is \$63.5M; the advertised annuity value is \$131M.  Twelfth round drawings sell on average 27.3M tickets.  If this is the number that sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 82.93% 1 15.52% 2 1.45% 3 0.09%

The modeling program suggests the following jackpot evolution:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$562,030,372.13 \$272,434,570 27.11% 0.82% \$353 \$442,864,513.95 \$214,670,967 37.86% 3.03% \$300 \$354,182,925.65 \$171,684,090 48.54% 8.00% \$245 \$288,187,310.58 \$139,693,849 58.39% 16.48% \$208 \$239,074,283.96 \$115,887,153 67.01% 28.23% \$193 \$202,525,046.84 \$98,170,538 74.24% 42.12% \$180 \$175,325,608.61 \$84,986,077 80.11% 56.74% \$159 \$155,084,161.76 \$75,174,384 83.84% 70.82% \$132 \$138,990,217.17 \$67,373,121 84.48% 84.48%

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 Posted: January 11, 2007, 12:13 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/13 has rolled to 155 million.

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 Posted: January 11, 2007, 12:26 am - IP Logged

The Powerball jackpot has rolled over.  The cash value is \$74.7; the advertised annuity value is \$155M.  Thirteenth round drawings sell on average 31.0M tickets.  If this is the number that sell, the randomized probability for various numbers of winners will be as follows:

 0 80.89% 1 17.16% 2 1.82% 3 0.13% 4 0.01%

The long term jackpot evolution is suggested as follows with the modeling program:

 Average Historical Annuity Calculated Annuity Calculated Cash Value Projections Single Draw Rollover Probability Overall Probability from baseline \$565,342,150.38 \$272,458,443 27.11% 0.97% \$353 \$445,484,607.32 \$214,694,840 37.86% 3.58% \$300 \$356,288,276.66 \$171,707,963 48.54% 9.47% \$245 \$289,909,597.44 \$139,717,722 58.39% 19.51% \$208 \$240,511,499.76 \$115,911,026 67.01% 33.41% \$193 \$203,750,116.68 \$98,194,411 74.24% 49.85% \$180 \$176,392,802.35 \$85,009,951 80.11% 67.16% \$159 \$156,033,866.30 \$75,198,257 83.83% 83.83%

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 Posted: January 14, 2007, 1:48 am - IP Logged

Prob988, PB Jackpot for 1/17 has rolled to 180 million. Lets see how the long term jackpot evolution figures now.

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