New York Lottery: Some crude probablistic analysis.

Reply #6

Just6ntlc — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 02:40:47 GMT

Oh well, next time in NY Lotto. I hope NY Lotto is competitive enough although they have MM.

Reply #5

Prob988 — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 16:34:58 GMT

I play, very modestly, local lotteries, when their expectation values, pre-tax, get to around 0.4. I calculate the pretax expectation value, the ratio of the potential cash prize(s) to the odds of winning, for lotteries in which I have interest using the same mathematics that I use for the MM and PB posts I make here.

I will not drive a significant distance for a lottery unless the expectation value is greater than 0.9.

The odds for PB and MM lotteries are so long that their jackpots wou... [ More ]

Reply #4

Just6ntlc — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 04:42:04 GMT

How big the NY Lotto jackpot must be in order for you to play this game Prob988? Good luck to you.

Reply #3

Prob988 — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 22:23:20 GMT

I started looking at it recently.

Any lottery where the jackpot is close to the odds is worth a look.

Generally, I would not play the NY Lotto, since it gives a low return. With a lot of rollovers though, it's worth it. I have some tickets for Wednesday and Saturday, since I believe there is a pretty fair probability that there will be two rollovers. This does not mean that there will be a rollover, but there is a very good chance of it.

Normally I would not play NY if MM or P... [ More ]

Reply #2

Just6ntlc — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 21:05:56 GMT

Prob988, when do you start your probablistic analysis on NY Lotto and why

Reply #1

Prob988 — Sun, 25 Jun 2006 20:19:04 GMT

Note that NY Lotto sales seem not to go up very much with jackpot size. If the lottery continues to grow by $2M annuity levels, there is about a 50% probability of 5 more draws before the jackpot is won. Probably sales will ultimately grow, but this would be the case if they stay steady.

New York Lottery: Some crude probablistic analysis.

Prob988 — Sun, 25 Jun 2006 17:10:01 GMT

The New York Lottery exists with a lot of secretive stuff. It's hard to determine cash values and sales.

Lotteries that are not worth playing can become worth playing though, if their jackpots become high enough.

I have estimated the NY Lotto sales from the fact that the jackpot has grown by two million, that the cash value is probably somewhere around 47% (they hide it) and that 30% of sales, according to their website, shows up in the jackpot prize. I'm guessing the sales are going t... [ More ]