|Posted: June 28, 2006, 12:34 pm - IP Logged|
How big the NY Lotto jackpot must be in order for you to play this game Prob988? Good luck to you.
I play, very modestly, local lotteries, when their expectation values, pre-tax, get to around 0.4. I calculate the pretax expectation value, the ratio of the potential cash prize(s) to the odds of winning, for lotteries in which I have interest using the same mathematics that I use for the MM and PB posts I make here.
I will not drive a significant distance for a lottery unless the expectation value is greater than 0.9.
The odds for PB and MM lotteries are so long that their jackpots would have to be close to 300M to have expectation values this high.
New York right now is about 0.95 as I calculate it. This is worth a relatively short drive in my mind.
Although I do not know how sales correspond to rises in the jackpot in California, I would guess that right now the expectation value for the California jackpot is better than one. If the current drawing there produces 25M in ticket sales - and again I have no idea what the real figure is - the CA Superlotto has a pretax expectation value of more than 1.2. This is excellent, but I am too far from California to participate.
With the reset jackpot, MM has an expectation value of less than 0.25. I will not play it.