The Odds Are The Reality

Reply #35

Rip Snorter — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 03:59:31 GMT

Noice thread, PAC..

J

Reply #34

pacattack05 — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 23:11:35 GMT

I meant to say that by buying a SMALL amount of tickets, not LARGE, those let's say ten tickets only represent 10 out of a thousand, and no matter how well a system might be seemingly great in filters or whatever method someone uses, the bottom line is that there are 990 other prospective applicants waiting in line, so to speak.

I just got a little dyslexic....

What it should've read was:

Again..............I say that by buying a SMALL amount of tickets, not LARGE, those let's... [ More ]

Reply #33

pacattack05 — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 22:42:40 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by KY Floyd on June 27, 2006 Quote: Originally posted by pacattack05 on June 27, 2006 I know I'm preaching to the choir, but there is one thing I do want to point out.

I'm in no way saying that winning the jackpot is totally out of the question in any way or form. The following presentation is just an example of one perspective. It's merely a sort of a wakeup call for me.

If you had a lottery who's odds were 20 million to one, and the jackpot was 100 million bucks,... [ More ]

Reply #32

guesser — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 21:54:47 GMT

So what are the odds of hitting a Powerball pick 5 versus a Powerball JACKPOT ?

As I said in my original post, I'm not aiming for a Jackpot, I'm aiming purely for a pick 5, and if I happen to

pick the powerball as well, that's fine also.

Reply #31

KY Floyd — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 20:06:19 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by dvdiva on June 29, 2006You are looking at the math error and not getting the point. You still are confusing odds and combinations. There are online dictionaries to look up the differences. Your odds still remain at 1:1000. The combinations are off.

If you spend another $10 so a total of $20 for one drawing it would be 1:50. That would be your math error.

Total odds / unique tickets. To reach 1:1 you would have to cover all 1000. At over 500 tickets your odds wou... [ More ]

Reply #30

pacattack05 — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 01:15:04 GMT

What it boils down to is terminology and nothing else.

Sure the method of how you could describe a situation, could be techinical, but it's very simple. No matter what you call it....If I buy 20 tickets, still have 980 other contenders. I could've become a contender.......

I think....

Reply #29

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 22:48:07 GMT

Coin Toss:

I never knew odds were up for debate. My math courses were all too long ago for me to draw anything up from memory, but what I remember wasn't all that complicated.

However, reading through this, it seems to me dvdiva is looking at things from some perspective that had to originate somewhere and provided a platform of perspective so's you and dvdiva aren't communicating.

From what you've posted here what you've said makes sense to me with my limited knowledge on such things.... [ More ]

Reply #28

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 15:48:06 GMT

dvdiva

For you to post what you did in the OP and then talk about people not getting the odds is really a bit much - quite entertaining though.

Yeah, why bother explaining it indeed.

Buono fortuna with your power of ten.

Reply #27

Stack47 — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 15:16:21 GMT

Dv,

Yeah, I saw that too.

http://www.walottery.com/sections/LotteryGames/Lotto.aspx?Page=FAQ

And then I looked at the odds of the 50 cent per play Ontario 49 lotto and the odds are exactly the same as the $2.00 Lotto 6/49 game.

http://lotteries.olgc.ca/consumer_hp_jackpots.jsp?game=o49

http://lotteries.olgc.ca/howtoplay.do?game=649

But I thought you were discussing the true odds of a pick-4 game, not Washington's fuzzy math?

From Dictionary.com: A ratio of the p... [ More ]

Reply #26

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 14:08:17 GMT

Dvdiva:

Try winning a lottery sometime using something you find in a dictionary or some document composed of words written by lawyers.

J

Reply #25

dvdiva — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 13:58:36 GMT

Wow, I didn't realize how few people don't have dictionaries. As if there aren't enought states correcting halving their odds by having 2 tickets per play.

This will be the last time since if someone doesn't want to get something why bother explaining it.

WA state lotto is a 6/49 game. $1 gets 2 plays. Odds of winning are about 1:7 million as listed on the website. Many other states and Canadian provinces have multiple plays per purchase (either one or two dollars). The odds if it were on... [ More ]

Reply #24

Stack47 — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 13:20:16 GMT

Dv,

By playing more straight combinations, you are raising your chances to hit but in the pick-4 by playing only 10 combinations, it would minuscule.

You are also confused about odds too. True odds are a proportion of the number of times an event will not happen to the number it will. Even if you play 1000 different combinations, they only draw one combination so the odds would be 8999 to 1.

Stack

Reply #23

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 06:47:19 GMT

You're saying you buy ten straight tickets with ten different numbers and reduce the odds from 1:10,000 to 1: 1,000.

The usual payoff on a stright pick 4 is $5000. Lotteries aren't in business to pay out $5,000 on 1:000 to one odds. Think about that one.

As mentioned beofre, the odds bet behind the pass line bet on a crap table are the only true odds available anywhere.

You're certainly not going to get paid $5,000 for beating 1,000 to one odds by a lottery commission.... [ More ]

Reply #22

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 06:05:51 GMT

Not difficult to grasp at all. Consider how odds on casino dice are worked out.

The odds of rolling a point number verses the odds of rolling a seven. And the odds bet behind the pass line is the only bet in a casino that pays true odds.

Three ways to make a 4 - a 2 and a 2, a 3 and a 1, and a 1 and a 3 ( a 1 and a 3 and a 3 and a 1 are not the same). Three combinations compared to six ways to roll a 7.

3 for, 6 against = 2:1

It's all based on combinations of the dice.

If you wa... [ More ]

Reply #21

dvdiva — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 05:46:42 GMT

You are looking at the math error and not getting the point. You still are confusing odds and combinations. There are online dictionaries to look up the differences. Your odds still remain at 1:1000. The combinations are off.

If you spend another $10 so a total of $20 for one drawing it would be 1:50. That would be your math error.

Total odds / unique tickets. To reach 1:1 you would have to cover all 1000. At over 500 tickets your odds would be 1 plus a fraction.

So the short version is... [ More ]

Reply #20

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 05:32:43 GMT

The odds against hitting the pick 4 are 9999:1 (9999 to 1)

If you play ten different combinations, your odds are now 9989:1.

In your example above each dollar played reduced the odds by 1,000, that's just not the way it works. If it did, according to that methos, another ten dollars played would recude those odds to 100:1. And another $10 dollars played would reduce that to even odds, 1:1. Another $10 and you'd have 10:1 the best of it.

If it was only that easy.

Reply #19

dvdiva — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 04:18:25 GMT

I think you are confusing odds with combinations.

Let's take pick 4. Odds are 1:10,000.

I buy ten tickets straight with ten different numbers for the same drawing.

1. My odds are now 1:1,000.

2. The probability of me winning is 1:1,000.

3. There are 9,998 combinations not covered by my numbers.

All of those three sentences are correct.

Saying your odds are 1:9,998 would not be correct.

Reply #18

pacattack05 — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 01:52:54 GMT

I think that you are right......The Gods are pleased........I'm living proof........LOL

Reply #17

Rip Snorter — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 21:47:45 GMT

Plenty understandable PAC.

Congratulations.

The Gods are satisfied.

J

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 21:35:46 GMT

Other than the winning numbers being a random event, you've just described a big problem with most systems, and with wheels in particular. Playing all of the combinations based on the numbers 1 through 7 guarantees a winning combination if all of the numbers drawn are from 1 to 7, but guarantees losing if even 1 number is outside that range. Picking 1% of the possible combinations gives you a 1% chance of having the winning combination regardless of the method used to pick the combinations. The... [ More ]

Reply #15

pacattack05 — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 16:18:32 GMT

I thank all for responding.

I think I didn't express myself well.

For example, In the p-3, if someone suddenly has this revelation that came to them about a particular system they had confidence in, and applied it to the following day's drawing, and the next day after, and after, and so on, to only see that it doesen't work, might blame it on the system. However, failing to realize that the group of let's say 10 numbers used in their system, was only 10 numbers out of a thousand.

So yo... [ More ]

Reply #14

Rip Snorter — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 14:23:32 GMT

Skepticism's a healthy state of mind so long as a person doesn't derive too much satisfaction from the warm red glow that comes with it.

Open mindedness, combined with skepticism is a rare bird, but it soars a lot prettier than does the poor old osterich skepticism, running around kicking and pecking, not believing flight is possible.

Our skepticism's something we need to endure to survive. Our willingness to make a God is not.

J

Reply #13

JimmySand9 — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 12:02:43 GMT

Nebraska Pick 5 has 38 numbers, not 49.

Reply #12

Rip Snorter — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 11:58:34 GMT

PAC:

Buying 19 million tickets for an announced 20 million dollar jackpot certainly wouldn't be the answer and couldn't be accused of being in the neighborhood at the time of the crime.

A 20 mil jackpot's worth maybe 8 or 9 m before taxes..... maybe 5 mil when the dust settles.

Those odds are out there no matter what the size of the jackpot, same with every draw. What changes, mostly, is the size the billboards say the jackpot is and the size of the dreams of the people who aren't goin... [ More ]

Reply #11

pacattack05 — Wed, 28 Jun 2006 07:04:22 GMT

Very true Rjoh....

The skeptics always get in the way.......LOL

All I know is that if I cracked the code of chaos, no skeptics could come close to stopping me. Maybe a herd of angry bulls......but not that.

Reply #10

RJOh — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 17:40:11 GMT

In spite of the facts that every player should know the unlikely odds of winning lottery games with multi-million dollar jackpots, threads that claims it can be done regularly will generate thousands of hits, many from believers who really think that's it has been done but never proved because of some skeptical responses.

Reply #9

Coin Toss — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 17:15:59 GMT

In any form of gambling there are two types of players, those who play for fun, like bellyache said, and those who get a lot more serious.

Regarding those who get more serious, the casinos and lotteries and racetracks are in the ego business as much as the gambling business, and believe me they are well aware of that - and have it down to a science.

Reply #8

bellyache — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 17:09:39 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by guesser on June 27, 2006For most folks, playing the lottery is a GAME, something to do to occupy time, no different than any other game, except the odds are a lot worse, and the longshot possibility of a large payoff is simply fun to dream about. We have to be able to dream.

Besides, I play Powerball with the intentions of hitting the 5 white balls, I don't even count on the Powerball itself.

Nebraska pick 5 pays like $75,000 and has 49 numbers, but the Power... [ More ]

Reply #7

JimmySand9 — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 15:42:32 GMT

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. 19 million tickets and the odds are still 1 million to one? Gimme a break. The odds would be about 1 in 10 for you to lose, not a million to one to win.

Reply #6

ryanm — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 15:32:40 GMT

Purchasing all the combinations for a guaranteed win isn't a good idea either, because if the lottery sold another jackpot winning ticket, you'd lose big on your investment.

Reply #5

KY Floyd — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 15:26:01 GMT

If you bought 19 million of 20 million possible combinations there would be a million combinations that would result in losing, but your odds would be 19 million in 20 million, or 19 in 20. That's a 95% chance of having the winning combination. Those would be extremely good odds, but you'd be risking the entire 19 million dollars.

Reply #4

guesser — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 15:14:29 GMT

For most folks, playing the lottery is a GAME, something to do to occupy time, no different than any other game, except the odds are a lot worse, and the longshot possibility of a large payoff is simply fun to dream about. We have to be able to dream.

Besides, I play Powerball with the intentions of hitting the 5 white balls, I don't even count on the Powerball itself.

Nebraska pick 5 pays like $75,000 and has 49 numbers, but the Powerball - getting 5 WB's pays $200,000 and has 55... [ More ]

Reply #3

LottoVantage — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 08:05:02 GMT

I agree.

Reply #2

Coin Toss — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 06:15:57 GMT

I've said this here before, but the odds against rolling a 6 or an 8 on a crap table are 6:5, and people have gone tap playing 6 and 8 dice systems.

As you've mentioned, in lotteries those odds are in the millions.

And you could never assume a solo jackpot, never.

Reply #1

pacattack05 — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 05:23:06 GMT

I forgot to mention that the source of correct prediction might as well be paranormal and less use of logic.

I think that behind every successful invention, the gut feeling was as prominent as the logic, if not more. Very creative ideas are extremely profound. They are not of everyday thoughts. They might even be divinely sent.

Maybe like Angels.

The Odds Are The Reality

pacattack05 — Tue, 27 Jun 2006 05:10:14 GMT

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but there is one thing I do want to point out.

I'm in no way saying that winning the jackpot is totally out of the question in any way or form. The following presentation is just an example of one perspective. It's merely a sort of a wakeup call for me.

If you had a lottery who's odds were 20 million to one, and the jackpot was 100 million bucks, and somehow you were able to purchase 19 million tickets, knowing with great certainty, you were going to be t... [ More ]