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The Odds Are The Reality

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Rip Snorter.

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United States
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June 22, 2005
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Posted: June 27, 2006, 1:10 am - IP Logged

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but there is one thing I do want to point out.

I'm in no way saying that winning the jackpot is totally out of the question in any way or form. The following presentation is just an example of one perspective. It's merely a sort of a wakeup call for me.

If you had a lottery who's odds were 20 million to one, and the jackpot was 100 million bucks, and somehow you were able to purchase 19 million tickets, knowing with great certainty, you were going to be the sole winner........... you would still have to beat a million to one, in order to win.

Think about it. You just bought 19 million tickets. That seems like alot of ground was covered, and that's fine. But you still have one million odds not covered. So now.....You're odds are still....a whopping.. million to one.

The moral of this story is.......We could have the finest system in the world, but the odds will always be the reality, and in my personal opinion.......when dealing with these kinds of odds, unlike the p-3 and the p-4... luck is more prevalent than any other source......and again, that's just one man's opiness.


    United States
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    Posted: June 27, 2006, 1:23 am - IP Logged

    I forgot to mention that the source of correct prediction might as well be paranormal and less use of logic.

    I think that behind every successful invention, the gut feeling was as prominent as the logic, if not more. Very creative ideas are extremely profound. They are not of everyday thoughts. They might even be divinely sent.

    Maybe like Angels.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
      United States
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      January 17, 2006
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      Posted: June 27, 2006, 2:15 am - IP Logged

      I've said this here before, but the odds against rolling a 6 or an 8 on a crap table are 6:5, and people have gone "tap" playing 6 and 8 dice systems.

      As you've mentioned, in lotteries those odds are in the millions.

      And you could never assume a solo jackpot, never.  

        LottoVantage's avatar - BRITIS 3.GIF
        Southeastern Ohio
        United States
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        April 16, 2005
        783 Posts
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        Posted: June 27, 2006, 4:05 am - IP Logged

        I forgot to mention that the source of correct prediction might as well be paranormal and less use of logic.

        I think that behind every successful invention, the gut feeling was as prominent as the logic, if not more. Very creative ideas are extremely profound. They are not of everyday thoughts. They might even be divinely sent.

        Maybe like Angels.

        I agree.

         

          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

          United States
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          June 16, 2006
          1969 Posts
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          Posted: June 27, 2006, 11:14 am - IP Logged

          For most folks, playing the lottery is a GAME, something to do to occupy time, no different than any other game, except the odds are a lot worse, and the longshot possibility of a large payoff is simply fun to dream about.  We have to be able to dream.

           

          Besides, I play Powerball with the intentions of hitting the 5 white balls, I don't even count on the Powerball itself.

          Nebraska pick 5 pays like $75,000 and has 49 numbers,  but the Powerball - getting 5 WB's pays $200,000 and has 55 numbers, and I don't even play 50-55 'most' of the time (but I have to admit I do sometimes, like for tomorrow night). 

           

          I think most of the folks here do it to occupy time, I would think most folks here KNOW the odds are against them, yet we play it anyway.

          Why ?

          See the first sentence again. 

            Avatar
            NY
            United States
            Member #23835
            October 16, 2005
            3474 Posts
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            Posted: June 27, 2006, 11:26 am - IP Logged

            I know I'm preaching to the choir, but there is one thing I do want to point out.

            I'm in no way saying that winning the jackpot is totally out of the question in any way or form. The following presentation is just an example of one perspective. It's merely a sort of a wakeup call for me.

            If you had a lottery who's odds were 20 million to one, and the jackpot was 100 million bucks, and somehow you were able to purchase 19 million tickets, knowing with great certainty, you were going to be the sole winner........... you would still have to beat a million to one, in order to win.

            Think about it. You just bought 19 million tickets. That seems like alot of ground was covered, and that's fine. But you still have one million odds not covered. So now.....You're odds are still....a whopping.. million to one.

            The moral of this story is.......We could have the finest system in the world, but the odds will always be the reality, and in my personal opinion.......when dealing with these kinds of odds, unlike the p-3 and the p-4... luck is more prevalent than any other source......and again, that's just one man's opiness.

            If you bought 19 million of 20 million possible combinations there would be a million combinations that would result in losing, but your odds would be 19 million in 20 million, or 19 in 20. That's a 95% chance of having the winning combination. Those would be extremely good odds, but you'd be risking the entire 19 million dollars.

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              Morrison, IL
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              May 13, 2004
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              Posted: June 27, 2006, 11:32 am - IP Logged

              Purchasing all the combinations for a guaranteed win isn't a good idea either, because if the lottery sold another jackpot winning ticket, you'd lose big on your investment.

                Avatar

                United States
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                July 11, 2003
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                Posted: June 27, 2006, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. 19 million tickets and the odds are still 1 million to one? Gimme a break. The odds would be about 1 in 10 for you to lose, not a million to one to win.

                (insert signature here)

                  bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

                  United States
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                  March 18, 2005
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                  Posted: June 27, 2006, 1:09 pm - IP Logged
                  For most folks, playing the lottery is a GAME, something to do to occupy time, no different than any other game, except the odds are a lot worse, and the longshot possibility of a large payoff is simply fun to dream about.   We have to be able to dream.

                  Besides, I play Powerball with the intentions of hitting the 5 white balls, I don't even count on the Powerball itself.

                  Nebraska pick 5 pays like $75,000 and has 49 numbers, but the Powerball - getting 5 WB's pays $200,000 and has 55 numbers, and I don't even play 50-55 'most' of the time (but I have to admit I do sometimes, like for tomorrow night).

                  I think most of the folks here do it to occupy time, I would think most folks here KNOW the odds are against them, yet we play it anyway.

                  Why ?

                  See the first sentence again.

                  I totally agree. I know the odds are stacked against me and I know that I have a better chance of being struck by lightning, hit by a bus, etc. But I play for the simply fact that no matter what those odds are, there is still a chance I could win. I don't spend tons of money playing Powerball, but a couple dollars every now and then is worth the dream of winning.

                  I also play for fun. It's a hobbie nothing more.

                  Dance like no one is watching.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
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                    January 17, 2006
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                    Posted: June 27, 2006, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

                    In any form of gambling there are two types of players, those who play for fun, like bellyache said, and those who get a lot more serious.

                    Regarding those who get more serious, the casinos and lotteries and racetracks are in the ego business as much as the gambling business, and believe me they are well aware of that - and have it down to a science.  

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      March 24, 2001
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                      Posted: June 27, 2006, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                      In spite of the facts that every player should know the unlikely odds of winning lottery games with multi-million dollar jackpots, threads that claims it can be done regularly will generate thousands of hits, many from believers who really think that's it has been done but never proved because of some skeptical responses.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       


                        United States
                        Member #17555
                        June 22, 2005
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                        Posted: June 28, 2006, 3:04 am - IP Logged

                        In spite of the facts that every player should know the unlikely odds of winning lottery games with multi-million dollar jackpots, threads that claims it can be done regularly will generate thousands of hits, many from believers who really think that's it has been done but never proved because of some skeptical responses.

                        Very true Rjoh....

                        The skeptics always get in the way.......LOL

                        All I know is that if I cracked the code of chaos, no skeptics could come close to stopping me. Maybe a herd of angry bulls......but not that.

                         

                          Avatar
                          New Mexico
                          United States
                          Member #12305
                          March 10, 2005
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                          Posted: June 28, 2006, 7:58 am - IP Logged

                          PAC:

                          Buying 19 million tickets for an announced 20 million dollar jackpot certainly wouldn't be the answer and couldn't be accused of being in the neighborhood at the time of the crime.

                          A 20 mil jackpot's worth maybe 8 or 9 m before taxes..... maybe 5 mil when the dust settles.

                          Those odds are out there no matter what the size of the jackpot, same with every draw.  What changes, mostly, is the size the billboards say the jackpot is and the size of the dreams of the people who aren't going to win anyway. 

                          The issue of whether someone has a system for beating those odds, whether someone has ever had, or might have in the future, isn't going to change by a vote count of LP members. 

                          The people who believe it can be beaten and retain that belief in the face of a lot of evangelists for the 'it can't be beaten' religion are the only ones with a prayer of beating it, however.

                          J

                          Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                          It's about number behavior.

                          Egos don't count.

                           

                          Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                           

                            Avatar

                            United States
                            Member #1826
                            July 11, 2003
                            2645 Posts
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                            Posted: June 28, 2006, 8:02 am - IP Logged

                            For most folks, playing the lottery is a GAME, something to do to occupy time, no different than any other game, except the odds are a lot worse, and the longshot possibility of a large payoff is simply fun to dream about.  We have to be able to dream.

                             

                            Besides, I play Powerball with the intentions of hitting the 5 white balls, I don't even count on the Powerball itself.

                            Nebraska pick 5 pays like $75,000 and has 49 numbers,  but the Powerball - getting 5 WB's pays $200,000 and has 55 numbers, and I don't even play 50-55 'most' of the time (but I have to admit I do sometimes, like for tomorrow night). 

                             

                            I think most of the folks here do it to occupy time, I would think most folks here KNOW the odds are against them, yet we play it anyway.

                            Why ?

                            See the first sentence again. 

                            Nebraska Pick 5 has 38 numbers, not 49.

                            (insert signature here)

                              Avatar
                              New Mexico
                              United States
                              Member #12305
                              March 10, 2005
                              2984 Posts
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                              Posted: June 28, 2006, 10:23 am - IP Logged

                              In spite of the facts that every player should know the unlikely odds of winning lottery games with multi-million dollar jackpots, threads that claims it can be done regularly will generate thousands of hits, many from believers who really think that's it has been done but never proved because of some skeptical responses.

                              Very true Rjoh....

                              The skeptics always get in the way.......LOL

                              All I know is that if I cracked the code of chaos, no skeptics could come close to stopping me. Maybe a herd of angry bulls......but not that.

                               

                              Skepticism's a healthy state of mind so long as a person doesn't derive too much satisfaction from the warm red glow that comes with it.

                              Open mindedness, combined with skepticism is a rare bird, but it soars a lot prettier than does the poor old osterich skepticism, running around kicking and pecking, not believing flight is possible.

                              Our skepticism's something we need to endure to survive.  Our willingness to make a God is not.

                              J

                              Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                              It's about number behavior.

                              Egos don't count.

                               

                              Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser