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The Odds Are The Reality

Topic closed. 35 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Rip Snorter.

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United States
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June 22, 2005
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 Posted: June 28, 2006, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

I thank all for responding.

I think I didn't express myself well.

For example, In the p-3, if someone suddenly has this revelation that came to them about a particular system they had confidence in, and applied it to the following day's drawing, and the next day after, and after, and so on, to only see that it doesen't work, might blame it on the system. However, failing to realize that the group of let's say 10 numbers used in their system, was only 10 numbers out of a thousand.

So you could have the best system in the world, and it can have every great filtering tool applied to it and 50 other adjustments to make it the best 10 numbers being used based on the criteria, whatever that criteria is, but in the long run you still have 990 other potential sets to contend with.

The odds are the reality, and I don't say that to be negative, but say it because that's the reality side of it.

NY
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October 16, 2005
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 Posted: June 28, 2006, 5:35 pm - IP Logged

I thank all for responding.

I think I didn't express myself well.

For example, In the p-3, if someone suddenly has this revelation that came to them about a particular system they had confidence in, and applied it to the following day's drawing, and the next day after, and after, and so on, to only see that it doesen't work, might blame it on the system. However, failing to realize that the group of let's say 10 numbers used in their system, was only 10 numbers out of a thousand.

So you could have the best system in the world, and it can have every great filtering tool applied to it and 50 other adjustments to make it the best 10 numbers being used based on the criteria, whatever that criteria is, but in the long run you still have 990 other potential sets to contend with.

The odds are the reality, and I don't say that to be negative, but say it because that's the reality side of it.

Other than the winning numbers being a random event, you've just described a big problem with  most systems, and with wheels in particular. Playing all of the combinations based on the numbers 1 through 7 guarantees a winning combination if all of the numbers drawn are from 1 to 7, but guarantees losing if even 1 number is outside that range. Picking 1% of the possible combinations gives you a 1% chance of having the winning combination regardless of the method used to pick the combinations. The odds are reality, and they're always against you. That's why it's called gambling.

New Mexico
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March 10, 2005
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 Posted: June 28, 2006, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

I thank all for responding.

I think I didn't express myself well.

For example, In the p-3, if someone suddenly has this revelation that came to them about a particular system they had confidence in, and applied it to the following day's drawing, and the next day after, and after, and so on, to only see that it doesen't work, might blame it on the system. However, failing to realize that the group of let's say 10 numbers used in their system, was only 10 numbers out of a thousand.

So you could have the best system in the world, and it can have every great filtering tool applied to it and 50 other adjustments to make it the best 10 numbers being used based on the criteria, whatever that criteria is, but in the long run you still have 990 other potential sets to contend with.

The odds are the reality, and I don't say that to be negative, but say it because that's the reality side of it.

Plenty understandable PAC.

Congratulations.

The Gods are satisfied.

J

Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

Egos don't count.

Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

United States
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June 22, 2005
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 Posted: June 28, 2006, 9:52 pm - IP Logged

I think that you are right......The Gods are pleased........I'm living proof........LOL

United States
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September 17, 2003
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 12:18 am - IP Logged

I think you are confusing odds with combinations.

Let's take pick 4. Odds are 1:10,000.

I buy ten tickets straight with ten different numbers for the same drawing.

1. My odds are now 1:1,000.

2. The probability of me winning is 1:1,000.

3. There are 9,998 combinations not covered by my numbers.

All of those three sentences are correct.

Saying your odds are 1:9,998 would not be correct.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 1:32 am - IP Logged

The odds against hitting the pick 4 are 9999:1 (9999 to 1)

If you play ten different combinations, your odds are now 9989:1.

In your example above each dollar played reduced the odds by 1,000, that's just not the way it works. If it did, according to that methos, another ten dollars played would recude those odds to 100:1. And another \$10 dollars played would reduce that to even odds, 1:1. Another \$10 and you'd have 10:1 the best of it.

If it was only that easy.

United States
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 1:46 am - IP Logged

You are looking at the math error and not getting the point. You still are confusing odds and combinations. There are online dictionaries to look up the differences. Your odds still remain at 1:1000. The combinations are off.

If you spend another \$10 so a total of \$20 for one drawing it would be 1:50. That would be your math error.

Total odds / unique tickets. To reach 1:1 you would have to cover all 1000. At over 500 tickets your odds would be 1 plus a fraction.

So the short version is odds are NOT the same as combinations. No one advertises combinations.  They usually advertise your chance of winning any prize which is far to difficult to grasp is you can't even cover the difference between odds and combinations in the first place.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 2:05 am - IP Logged

Not difficult to grasp at all. Consider how odds on casino dice are worked out.

The odds of rolling a point number verses the odds of rolling a seven. And the odds bet behind the pass line is the only bet in a casino that pays true odds.

Three ways to make a 4 - a 2 and a 2, a 3 and a 1, and a 1 and a 3 ( a 1 and a 3 and a 3 and a 1 are not the same). Three combinations compared to six ways to roll a 7.

3 for, 6 against = 2:1

It's all based on combinations of the dice.

If you want to get into place bets, thjose payoffs were derived at by adding 1 to each side of the ratio.

6:5 odds against rolling a 6 or 8, add 1 to each side of the ratio and now you have 7:6, which is what a place bet six or eight pays.

Odds are odds. Same exact principle, with lottery there is just a lot more numbers.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 2:47 am - IP Logged

I think you are confusing odds with combinations.

Let's take pick 4. Odds are 1:10,000.

I buy ten tickets straight with ten different numbers for the same drawing.

1. My odds are now 1:1,000.

2. The probability of me winning is 1:1,000.

3. There are 9,998 combinations not covered by my numbers.

All of those three sentences are correct.

Saying your odds are 1:9,998 would not be correct.

You're saying you buy ten straight tickets with ten different numbers and reduce the odds from 1:10,000 to 1: 1,000.

The usual payoff on a stright pick 4 is \$5000. Lotteries aren't in business to pay out \$5,000 on 1:000 to one odds. Think about that one.

As mentioned beofre, the odds bet behind the pass line bet on a crap table are the only true odds available anywhere.

You're certainly not going to get paid \$5,000 for beating 1,000 to one odds by a lottery commission.

Kentucky
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 9:20 am - IP Logged

Dv,

By playing more straight combinations, you are raising your chances to hit but in the pick-4 by playing only 10 combinations, it would minuscule.

You are also confused about odds too. True odds are a proportion of the number of times an event will not happen to the number it will.  Even if you play 1000 different combinations, they only draw one combination so the odds would be 8999 to 1.

Stack

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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 9:58 am - IP Logged

Wow, I didn't realize how few people don't have dictionaries. As if there aren't enought states correcting halving their odds by having 2 tickets per play.

This will be the last time since if someone doesn't want to get something why bother explaining it.

WA state lotto is a 6/49 game. \$1 gets 2 plays. Odds of winning are  about 1:7 million as listed on the website. Many other states and Canadian provinces have multiple plays per purchase (either one or two dollars). The odds if it were only one set of numbers would be 1:13.9 million. Where did the other 7 million combinations go? Nowhere. Because lotteries hire lawyers. Lawyers know words have meaning. There are also things called dictionaries that have definitions in them. To spell it out father the even print these defintions in the laws themselves. Try going to court sometime with your own definition and you will find out the hard way the difference.

New Mexico
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 10:08 am - IP Logged

Wow, I didn't realize how few people don't have dictionaries. As if there aren't enought states correcting halving their odds by having 2 tickets per play.

This will be the last time since if someone doesn't want to get something why bother explaining it.

WA state lotto is a 6/49 game. \$1 gets 2 plays. Odds of winning are  about 1:7 million as listed on the website. Many other states and Canadian provinces have multiple plays per purchase (either one or two dollars). The odds if it were only one set of numbers would be 1:13.9 million. Where did the other 7 million combinations go? Nowhere. Because lotteries hire lawyers. Lawyers know words have meaning. There are also things called dictionaries that have definitions in them. To spell it out father the even print these defintions in the laws themselves. Try going to court sometime with your own definition and you will find out the hard way the difference.

Dvdiva:

Try winning a lottery sometime using something you find in a dictionary or some document composed of words written by lawyers.

J

Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

Egos don't count.

Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

Kentucky
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 11:16 am - IP Logged

Dv,

Yeah, I saw that too.

http://www.walottery.com/sections/LotteryGames/Lotto.aspx?Page=FAQ

And then I looked at the odds of the 50 cent per play Ontario 49 lotto and the odds are exactly the same as the \$2.00 Lotto 6/49 game.

http://lotteries.olgc.ca/consumer_hp_jackpots.jsp?game=o49

http://lotteries.olgc.ca/howtoplay.do?game=649

But I thought you were discussing the true odds of a pick-4 game, not Washington's fuzzy math?

From Dictionary.com: "A ratio of the probability of an event's occuring to probability of its not occuring".

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/Odds

From Merrian-Webster online dictionary: "the ratio of the probability of one event to that of an alternative event."

http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/odds

Has it ever occured to you that every time you buy 10 diffferent straight pick-4 combinations, nine of them can't possibly win?

Stack

Zeta Reticuli Star System
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 11:48 am - IP Logged

dvdiva

For you to post what you did in the OP and then talk about people not getting the odds is really a bit much - quite entertaining though.

Yeah, why bother explaining it indeed.

Buono fortuna with your power of ten.

New Mexico
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 Posted: June 29, 2006, 6:48 pm - IP Logged

dvdiva

For you to post what you did in the OP and then talk about people not getting the odds is really a bit much - quite entertaining though.

Yeah, why bother explaining it indeed.

Buono fortuna with your power of ten.

Coin Toss:

I never knew odds were up for debate.  My math courses were all too long ago for me to draw anything up from memory, but what I remember wasn't all that complicated.

However, reading through this, it seems to me dvdiva is looking at things from some perspective that had to originate somewhere and provided a platform of perspective so's you and dvdiva aren't communicating.

From what you've posted here what you've said makes sense to me with my limited knowledge on such things.  It rhymes with everything I think I ever knew.

But I'm wondering if dvdiva mightn't be trying to express something with some meat in it and I'm just not getting it because I'm stuck too hard and fast in what I think I remember knowing.

Hopefully dvdiva will do some more explaining.  Maybe it still won't make sense, but maybe there'll be something there that's food for thought.  Heck, maybe it's just a matter of symantics.

J

Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.