Odds 101

Reply #55

Coin Toss — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 23:48:09 GMT

All right, 9990 in the pick 4, for the next 9 draws.

Reply #54

Stack47 — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 22:56:53 GMT

Floyd: 9990 The numbers you don't have tickets for.

And I calulate the odds as a ratio of the number of actual losing outcomes to the number of actual winning outcomes; 9990:1.

Reply #53

pacattack05 — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 06:19:56 GMT

The odds of this thread to go on as long as it has, is about 1 in 2/Xyz var./ %{ to the power of } 17.

Plus or minus 3%..........

I called up Mr. Zulu, and he told me....

Reply #52

csfb — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 05:40:45 GMT

Grazie, signore. Buona Fortuna

Reply #51

KY Floyd — Mon, 10 Jul 2006 01:35:22 GMT

How many different ways can it be explained to you that when you buy 10 different numbers on straight pick-4 that there are 10 different chances to match the winning number? I think I've tried most of them, but I'll try once more. Let's start with the deck of cards again.

Me: There are 51 cards that aren't the ace of spades and 1 card that is, so the odds are 51:1 against.

you: And if you draw another card, there are now 49 cards that are not the ace of spades, so odds the are 49... [ More ]

Reply #50

Stack47 — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 07:34:00 GMT

Floyd: Was it still possible to calculate the odds of drawing the ace of spades?

Yep.

Floyd: There are 51 cards that aren't the ace of spades and 1 card that is, so the odds are 51:1 against.

And if you draw another card, there are now 49 cards that are not the ace of spades, so odds the are 49:1.

Floyd: would the odds against winning still be 9999:1 or would they change?

One 4 digit number is drawn and 9999 are not so the odds are always 9999:1.

Floyd: That makes the odds o... [ More ]

Reply #49

Just6ntlc — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 04:45:34 GMT

Lets assume we play Quinto. There are 52 different playing cards. You have to choose 5 of them. What are the odds of you winning a jackpot

Reply #48

Coin Toss — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 04:22:09 GMT

KY Floyd

Pick 3, Pick 4, 3 or 4 4 columns of numbers, 0 thru9 making ten numbers per column.

10 X 10 X10 = 1,000

10 X 10 X 10 X 10 = 10,000

A number is picked from each column, meaning 1 combination among 1,000 or 1 combination among 10,000 will be right, 999 or 9,999 will be wrong. If you play ten separate combinations you have reduced 999 to 989 and 9,999 to 9,989.

That's all there is to it.

Til you comprehend that you have nob suiness tell any one else how flawed their con... [ More ]

Reply #47

KY Floyd — Sun, 09 Jul 2006 01:09:45 GMT

Your first two paragraphs suggest that you might be really close to getting my point, and I think you'll be there as soon as you consider that the question isn't how much can you profit, but what are the chances of winning? Here are some questions.

1. After thoroughly shuffling a standard deck of cards you draw a single card at random. Nobody placed a bet on the outcome and no money changed hands. Was it still possible to calculate the odds of drawing the ace of spades?

2. It see... [ More ]

Reply #46

Coin Toss — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 17:24:52 GMT

csfb

I'm afraid such a thread would turn out like this one and a few alumni of Maven U. sould surface and explain how the first tickets has 175,000,000 + or 120,000,000 + against it, so to cut that in half play another ticket.

For MM and PB just look at the posted odds on the bvacket of the ticket and know that onley one combination of that many can hit and every ticket has the same exact odds againt that particular combination hitting.

buono fortuna

Reply #45

csfb — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 04:39:18 GMT

Okay then, I'll revisit when you get to Jackpot Games 101 (MM and PB). That's all I play.

Reply #44

Coin Toss — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 03:38:43 GMT

That's them

Reply #43

truecritic — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 02:57:51 GMT

Coin Toss - are these the ones you referred to?

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/129082.htm

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/129273.htm

Reply #42

Coin Toss — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 00:39:48 GMT

Very true Stack, very true.

Reply #41

Stack47 — Sat, 08 Jul 2006 00:00:04 GMT

Coin Toss,

Its obvious true odds are meaningless when the question is how much can I win for a buck . And you can get $5000 for your buck hitting a Pick-4 straight combination.

What happened in your other thread and in this one too, people were saying by playing 10 different straight combinations they now had 10 chances of winning $5000 so they were lowering the odds by a factor of 10. I guess they forgot by playing 10 more combinations, they changed the question to how much can I win f... [ More ]

Reply #40

Coin Toss — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 22:48:51 GMT

I don't think so, unless you're letting yourself get convinced of things like a flip of a coin resulting in odds being 1 in 1 on heads.

I'd say those who truly believe that playing an additional ticket vcuts the odds in half are more likely to be accussed of the blind leading the blind (which is what triggered this thread to begin with).

KY Floyd

Re: Your comments on winning - the betting $10 and winning $3. That's exactly how the not so honest tout services for sports betting operate... [ More ]

Reply #39

csfb — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 19:54:23 GMT

Is this the blind leading the blind

Reply #38

Rip Snorter — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 19:29:11 GMT

Reminds me of back in the days I did some drinking, still. Used to stand around arguing with lamp posts and parking meters.

You doing some tippling, Coin Toss?

J

Reply #37

Coin Toss — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 18:08:09 GMT

I bought $10 worth of Powerball tickets and I won $3.

BALONEY. Betting $10 and netting $3 is a $7 loss, end of story.

What you're saying is the same thing as people putting $1.25 in a vido poker machine, getting a pair of jacks, and habing $1.25 coming out of the machine and sitting there yeling, I won! I won!

If you want to talk about how much sense it makes to place a bet we could always start a different thread.....

Yo've already been invited to do that.

Reply #36

KY Floyd — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 17:57:43 GMT

But any win is winning, period

Exactly. A win is a win, and turning a profit is somehting else. You can easily see how many others here understand that by paying attention to how often somebody says something along the lines of I bought $10 worth of Powerball tickets and I won $3.

This has been a discussion about probability and probability is only about the likelihood of an event occuring. In this case that event is having a winning ticket. The results of that event occurring are a... [ More ]

Reply #35

KY Floyd — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 17:49:36 GMT

You've said yourself that you started this thread because of another thread in which some people were confused about odds. Maybe you didn't notice, but the odds they were confused about were the kind governed by probability, not what the house wants to pay, and the subject was brought up in regards to lottery games that specifically deal with simple probability. You may have intended to go elsewhere, but you started with probability and then dove in head first when you erroneoudsly said that d... [ More ]

Reply #34

Coin Toss — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 17:47:56 GMT

Stack47

All too true about players.

Bad beat stories, too. My point comparing Caribbean Sttud was about people chasing a Royal being dealt to them for a jackpot that pays much, much less than it should pay. I'm sure people have blown paychecks chasing lotto jackpots but I think there's more likely to be players doing that with casino games.

just6ntlc

I would say inter-galactic

Reply #33

Just6ntlc — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 13:47:42 GMT

Here's some complicated questions: What are the odds of having any number as the winning numbers of both WB and MB in CA SLP [5/47+1/27]? Texas Lotto bonus game [5/44+1/44]? Powerball [5/55+1/42] and [5/45+1/45]? Mega Millions [5/56+1/46] and [5/52+1/52

Reply #32

Stack47 — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 10:49:07 GMT

Coin Toss: if the betting public educated itself, AHEM, games like Caribbean Stud would not exist.

If the casinos had nails protruding from the seats and electrodes randomly giving off shocks were attached to their toes, people would still play the game. Where else can you be dealt trips and get even money on your anti bet when the dealer fails to qualify? Or my personal favorite; having trips and watch the dealer turn up higher trips or a flush?

Stack

Reply #31

Stack47 — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 10:33:01 GMT

And Floyd said: If you buy tickets with 5000 different numbers you have a 50% chance of having a winning ticket and a 50% chance of not having a winning ticket. If you have a winning ticket then you've won, period.

I would need $5000 to BUY 5000 different straight combinations and you're saying if one of those 5000 combinations hit and I got my 5 grand back that I won? Whoopie, how much did I WIN?

I have a better idea; I'll go to the dog track and bet $2 to win on all 8 dogs in the race s... [ More ]

Reply #30

Coin Toss — Fri, 07 Jul 2006 05:39:35 GMT

Well, had the thread gone as planned I was going to bring up things like if the betting public educated itself, AHEM, games like Caribbean Stud would not exist.

The ODDS against being dealt a Royal Flush are over 652,000 to one...yet people sit down at these games, bet on a hand they can't draw to, put an additional bet up towards the kackpot, and even if they win $100,000 they're getting shorted over $400,000. But even when the one renegade floorperson that will tell a player that and wh... [ More ]

Reply #29

Rip Snorter — Thu, 06 Jul 2006 23:54:32 GMT

Baloney. the coin has two sides.

You know, I'd really love to see your concept of sports betting, laying 11 to win 10 and covering a pointspread. Want to tell us what percentage of winners you have to hit to overcome the vig?

Lawdylawdylawdy. We back on Boogie Street.

Coin Toss, if you won't think I'm one of them other kind of guys I'll tell you I'm getting one hell of a kick out of this thread. Lots of deep laughter going on here. Deep (voiced) laughter.

J... [ More ]

Reply #28

Coin Toss — Thu, 06 Jul 2006 23:49:01 GMT

KY Floyd

Through this entire thread I've only been talking about the odds, which are function of math, not finances. I'm not talking about how much you win or lose or how good a payout you get from a lottery or casino and I never have been

Well, I started the thread, you didn't, and it was going to lead to payoffs verses true odds, but kept getting sidetracked. Perhaps next time you can't start your own thread.

KY Floyd

For flipping a coin there are two possibilities, and the p... [ More ]

Reply #27

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Jul 2006 19:45:59 GMT

Whether you walk out of the store with 10 or even 1000 different pick-4 straight combinations, there are still 9999 outcomes that lose because only ONE straight combination is drawn.

If I had tickets for 10% of the possible outcomes how could 99.99% of those outcomes result in losing? If I walk out of the store with 1000 tickets that all have different numbers on them there are 1000 combinations that result in one of my tickets winning. That means there are 9000 combinations where I lose... [ More ]

Reply #26

KY Floyd — Thu, 06 Jul 2006 19:29:42 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by truecritic on July 5, 2006KY Floyd

Let's start from a point where we agree. In pick 4 there are 10,000 possible outcomes, and if you have one ticket the odds are 9999:1 against winning

Just a question.

Michigan has a small pamphlet to inform everyone about how to play The Daily 4 Game. In it, it says, Bet Type Straight Odds 10,000-1

So are you saying if I do buy a ticket it would be improper to say the odds are 10000:1? In a normal conversation, I neve... [ More ]

Reply #25

truecritic — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 23:43:42 GMT

KY Floyd

Let's start from a point where we agree. In pick 4 there are 10,000 possible outcomes, and if you have one ticket the odds are 9999:1 against winning

Just a question.

Michigan has a small pamphlet to inform everyone about how to play The Daily 4 Game. In it, it says, Bet Type Straight Odds 10,000-1

So are you saying if I do buy a ticket it would be improper to say the odds are 10000:1? In a normal conversation, I never heard anyone state their exact odds based on how man... [ More ]

Reply #24

Coin Toss — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 22:58:57 GMT

KY FLOYD

Listen to Stack47

Also, consider the payout - the average $5000 straight payout for a Pick 4 is nowehre near the 9999 odds against. So if you were crazy enough to play 9999 straight tickets and had only one possible loser, even if you won you're still taking it in the shorts to the tune of 9999 minus 5000.So you win and the lottery makes $4999 off of you.

Reply #23

Stack47 — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 21:30:55 GMT

Floyd said: There are also 10 numbers that , if drawn, will result in the player winning, because the number drawn will match one of the 10 tickets. That means that on the side of the odds equation that expresses the possible outcomes that result in the player wining we have 10. That makes the odds of losing 9990:10. (9990 outccomes that lose) : (10 outcomes that win), adding up to 10,000 possible outcomes.

Whether you walk out of the store with 10 or even 1000 different pick-4 straight co... [ More ]

Reply #22

KY Floyd — Wed, 05 Jul 2006 18:52:20 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on July 4, 2006Believe what you want. As long as people believe that an addittional ticket will cut the odds in half the lottery commissions will laugh at the players.

And those same people will tell people to go to casinos that chump people into thinking that 16 for 1 pays a lot better than 15 to 1.

When you say:

If you had 1 ticket there are 9999 unplayed combinations. If you wanted 10 tickets you'd need 9 more. Did I get that right? When I s... [ More ]

Reply #21

Coin Toss — Tue, 04 Jul 2006 05:57:11 GMT

Believe what you want. As long as people believe that an addittional ticket will cut the odds in half the lottery commissions will laugh at the players.

And those same people will tell people to go to casinos that chump people into thinking that 16 for 1 pays a lot better than 15 to 1.

When you say:

If you had 1 ticket there are 9999 unplayed combinations. If you wanted 10 tickets you'd need 9 more. Did I get that right? When I subtract 9 from the 9999 on one side of the equation I... [ More ]

Reply #20

KY Floyd — Tue, 04 Jul 2006 05:40:09 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on July 3, 2006KY Floyd

You said

That's wrong on two counts. Playing 10 combinations leaves 9990, not 9989....

Odds are based on to one....if the task is to pick one winning number out of a field of 10 numbers, the odds against your number are 9 TO 1, not 10 TO one....this if the odds are 9999 TO one (Pick 4) and you play ten striaght tickets, the odds against you are now 9989 TO one...

You're starting out with odds of 10,000 to one, which i... [ More ]

Reply #19

Coin Toss — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 22:29:46 GMT

KY Floyd

You said

That's wrong on two counts. Playing 10 combinations leaves 9990, not 9989....

Odds are based on to one....if the task is to pick one winning number out of a field of 10 numbers, the odds against your number are 9 TO 1, not 10 TO one....this if the odds are 9999 TO one (Pick 4) and you play ten striaght tickets, the odds against you are now 9989 TO one...

You're starting out with odds of 10,000 to one, which is not the case. It starts out 9999 to one.

Some... [ More ]

Reply #18

KY Floyd — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 20:08:25 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Coin Toss on July 2, 2006

Ky Floyd

In another thread, The Odds Are the Reality, dvdiva posted this:

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I think you are confusing odds with combinations.

Let's take pick 4. Odds are 1:10,000.

I buy ten tickets straight with ten different numbers for the same drawing.

1. My odds are now 1:1,000.

2. The probability of me winning is 1:1,000.

3. There are 9,998 combinations n... [ More ]

Reply #17

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 05:45:38 GMT

Ky Floyd

In another thread, The Odds Are the Reality, dvdiva posted this:

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

I think you are confusing odds with combinations.

Let's take pick 4. Odds are 1:10,000.

I buy ten tickets straight with ten different numbers for the same drawing.

1. My odds are now 1:1,000.

2. The probability of me winning is 1:1,000.

3. There are 9,998 combinations not covered by my numbers.

All of those three sentences... [ More ]

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 03:00:53 GMT

I figured that was what prompted this thread, but I didn't see anyone saying odds and combinations are different things. There was plenty of confusion about how to figure out the probability for any given number of combinations, and confusion about the technical difference between odds and probability. As near as I can tell, though, everybody but you was talking about the odds (or probability) of an event happening, not the odds somebody will give you for paying out if that event occurs. That's... [ More ]

Reply #15

Coin Toss — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 17:44:36 GMT

This thread was triggered by another thread where the poster who put up the OP said that odds and combinations were two different things.

And you're perfectly correct about the house edge.

Reply #14

KY Floyd — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 15:57:35 GMT

Why not? Odds are based on probability, and probability is determined by the possible combinations or permutations. If there are 36 possible combinations and 3 of them have identical results then the odds for that result are 3 to 33 or 1 to 11.

If you want to talk about what the house pays for a successful bet you shouldn't confuse the matter with discussion about combinations or probability unless you want to contribute the the confusion abouthow odds are figured.

Reply #13

Coin Toss — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 23:31:00 GMT

KY Floyd

Even in your post it's stated that odds are based on combinations.

Reply #12

Coin Toss — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 23:04:58 GMT

That's in a game called Barboo where every roll of the dice is a hop bet , but I didn't want to get into that just yet.

Reply #11

KY Floyd — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 20:31:40 GMT

It sounds like your thinking is rooted in your casino background and perhaps confused by payouts for a winning bets. Some of the posters here may play craps or other casino games, but I think the primary discussions are about lottery games, and therefore discussions about odds should be about the probability of winning. Payouts have to differ from the odds or the house wouldn't make any money, but that's economics 101.

If there are 3 combinations that add up to 4, and there are 36 possible co... [ More ]

Reply #10

pacattack05 — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 03:15:06 GMT

Sassafraz Sauce..........

Reply #9

Coin Toss — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 02:17:56 GMT

Oh it has, and that's daily.

Reply #8

Rip Snorter — Fri, 30 Jun 2006 00:24:38 GMT

Coin Toss:

It never entered my mind you might be.

I think my formative years gave me too much protection from that side of things to leave any holes for it to peek through in my thinking.

On the other hand, if I'd thought you were a chick you'd still have been safe insofar as my thinking. Somewhere down the track I had one too many experiences with women that ought to have reminded me sooner of that mule.

I don't think I'm going to spend any more time thinking about odds for a whi... [ More ]

Reply #7

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:46:02 GMT

I was just kiding there Rip, I'm not of that persausion either. (At least I didn;t let you think I was a chick!)

Odds:

OK, remember about the pair of dice ading up to 14. Let's start with the numbers 4 and 10 (4 and 10 are the same for odds calculations, so are 5 and 9, and so are 6 and 8).

Of the 36 possible combinations, there are three ways to make a 4 (or a ten), for the 4 it's a 2 and a 2 (hard 4, a pair), a 3 and a 1, and a 1 and a 3.

That's three combinations - there are alwa... [ More ]

Reply #6

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:42:22 GMT

I haven't thought about that mule in a longer while than most LP users have been alive, I suspect. But because of your post I'm sitting here having vivid enough recollections to cause me to think I'm going to have to make a blog entry about it.

I spent about six weeks with only that mule for company in the country where the Kohala range drifts down to the ocean. It was a time filled with a lot of other things so's the mule sort of fell into the background of my consciousness, superceded by... [ More ]

Reply #5

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:25:46 GMT

Maybe it was that mention I made somewhere about a Portuguese man I came to like a lot in Kukuihaele. Ray Arugio.

Old Ray loaned me a mule. Worst mule I've ever had the pleasure of trying to work with. It's hard not to like a man who'll put you onto something so memorable.

But I never liked him all THAT much.

J

Reply #4

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:18:01 GMT

Coin Toss:

I'm not a hi sailor sort of guy. Can't recall ever being thought to be before.

Got me chuckling, however.

Heck. Maybe if I ever live another century or so I'll see I missed my calling.

J

Reply #3

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 23:13:57 GMT

Aww shucks Rip Snorter (I'm no spring chicken! - and let's not play Hi Sailor!

Not that there's anything wrong with that!) lol

johnph77

Yeah, just a different way of expressing it, I guess we stick with however we learn for the most part.

I had years of casino work and whenever odds come up there's always expressed as odds against an even occuring - same way the layouts are written on the games.

Reply #2

johnph77 — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 20:48:54 GMT

I would think it's a matter of personal preference. I prefer that odds are separated by double colons and the smaller number placed first, as in 1::36. The odds are 1 in 36 that the specified event will occur .

gl

j

Reply #1

Rip Snorter — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 18:29:38 GMT

Coin Toss:

I'm beginning to really enjoy reading your posts.

If you were a woman and if I were 20 years younger and if I lived somewhere nearer where you do I'd most likely offer to sit down at third base with you at first and play a few hands of blackjack.

J

Odds 101

Coin Toss — Thu, 29 Jun 2006 18:25:29 GMT

There seems to be a lot of disagreement on how odds are figured.

I'm going to use roulette as an example (American roulette, 0 and 00).

Considering 0 and 00 there are 38 numbers to bet on, 1- 36, and 0, 00. Betting one number straight up the odds are1 in 38, or 37 to one, written as 37:1.

If you see the word for on a casino game layout (dice, Reno) the for includes the bet - on some layouts an 11 pays 15 to 1, on others 16 for one, it means the same thing.

Back to roulette, the oddd... [ More ]