The Truth Behind the Numbers

Reply #12

Rip Snorter — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 15:00:47 GMT

There are no provacateur agents on LP. No pushers. No cooks.

There's only tweakers.

There's only family.

Reply #11

Coin Toss — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 06:17:36 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on July 3, 2006Either you win or lose, that's 50/50.

Only kidding, but buying two tickets does cut the ODDS in half, not to be confused with the fact you are still playing only two tickets out of millions.

Most states that sell two tickets for a dollar cut the odds in half per dollar, they might know what they are doing, though in Canada they don't cut the odds in half, maybe it's a cultural thing like yogurt. BobP

I GIVE UP. Some of these po... [ More ]

Reply #10

BobP — Mon, 03 Jul 2006 04:25:05 GMT

Either you win or lose, that's 50/50.

Only kidding, but buying two tickets does cut the ODDS in half, not to be confused with the fact you are still playing only two tickets out of millions.

Most states that sell two tickets for a dollar cut the odds in half per dollar, they might know what they are doing, though in Canada they don't cut the odds in half, maybe it's a cultural thing like yogurt. BobP

Reply #9

Rip Snorter — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 21:03:11 GMT

Great analogy, RickG.

Especially the part about lining them up between Minneapolis and Chicago.

I guess the race would be run a mile south, or north? or a quarter mile if they're quarter horses.

That ought to be one for betting long shots.

J

Reply #8

Rick G — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:40:25 GMT

It's like a horse race with 170 million horses lined up. You could have a hundred tickets but you have a phenomenal number of horses who could beat yours to the finish line.

Here's an interesting analogy. If you lined up quarters on the highway back-to-back from Chicago to Minneapolis, the chance of picking the right quarter is about the same as winning a 6/49 game. Let's say you get to stop and pick up two quarters along the way. Do you think your chances are that much greater because yo... [ More ]

Reply #7

Rick G — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:18:31 GMT

I agree with you, Badger. Talk about odds and probability are esoteric arguments in games with huge amounts of possible outcomes.

Reply #6

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 18:02:47 GMT

Indeed it is.

Reply #5

Badger — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 11:51:45 GMT

I never did understand where some people got the thinking from that says that if you buy multiple tickets in a drawing that has astronomical odds like the jackpot games do, that somehow this cuts their odds.

Each line/combination/ticket that you play has the exact same odds of being drawn. Each one stands alone when the draw comes. I've bought multiple tickets at times in the past and got zilch. Then there were times that I bought one little Quickpick on a 6/36 game and a 5/31 game and go... [ More ]

Reply #4

awwcrap — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 07:52:37 GMT

I wish I was that 1 in 120mil.

Reply #3

Coin Toss — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 05:57:14 GMT

The author only gave the how many years example for Powerball.

Here's the formula though (ouch):

Suppose that in a series of repeated trials of a game, one has a probability p of winning and probability q of losing at each trial. Let's let the symbol E represent the expected number (average number) of trials one can expect until a win occurs. At the very first trial the probability of a Awin is p and the corresponding number of trials is 1. The probability of a loss is q and the expect... [ More ]

Reply #2

LckyLary — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 01:06:17 GMT

How long would it take to win the Cash 5 (on a 5/38 game) playing 2 tickets per drawing? I calculated (check my math if you want) that it would take something like 1,000 years. It took me 1 year after I wrote my first program.

ODDS ARE MADE TO BE BEATEN

Reply #1

Rip Snorter — Sun, 02 Jul 2006 01:01:19 GMT

Those jackpots would certainly grow a lot more quickly, though, if we'd all buy a hundred or so tickets, each one cutting the odds in half.

A person always wonders where this kind of thinking began..... likely it didn't leave a trail.

But I'd put it along the lines of splitting Aces looking at a dealer 10, knowing you get no opportunity for another card, knowing you've got twice the money on the table and the world ain't looking better than it would have if you'd hit them, necessarily.... [ More ]

The Truth Behind the Numbers

Coin Toss — Sat, 01 Jul 2006 22:42:18 GMT

From the book The Lottery Book - The Truth Behind the Numbers, by Don Catlin.

There's been some discussions on the board about playing a second ticket to cut the odds in half .

This is from p 130 of the book mentioned above:

If the probability of winning a single lottery jackpot is 1 in 120,526,770, the average number of games one would have to play before a win occurred would be 120,526,770 of them. If the game were played twice a week this would mean that, on average, one would have... [ More ]