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The Truth Behind the Numbers

Topic closed. 12 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Rip Snorter.

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Zeta Reticuli Star System
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Posted: July 1, 2006, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

From the book The Lottery Book - The Truth Behind the Numbers, by Don Catlin.

There's been some discussions on the board about playing a second ticket "to cut the odds in half". 

This is from p 130 of the book mentioned above:

If the probability of winning a single lottery jackpot is 1 in 120,526,770, the average number of games one would have to play before a win occurred would be 120,526,770 of them. If the game were played twice a week this would mean that, on average, one would have to play for 1,158,911 years before seeing a win. Of course you could cut this down by playing $100 each game, then it would only take 11,589 years on average. Sort of puts it intp perspective, doesn't it? 

Don't think I'm telling you not to play; I'm just telling you not to expect to win....

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    New Mexico
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    Posted: July 1, 2006, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

    Those jackpots would certainly grow a lot more quickly, though, if we'd all buy a hundred or so tickets, each one cutting the odds in half.

    A person always wonders where this kind of thinking began..... likely it didn't leave a trail.

    But I'd put it along the lines of splitting Aces looking at a dealer 10, knowing you get no opportunity for another card, knowing you've got twice the money on the table and the world ain't looking better than it would have if you'd hit them, necessarily.

    Occams Razor would insist the book that says Aces should be split looking at a dealer 10 was written by the casino, or it predated the modern custom of not allowing the player to take another card after splitting aces.

    I don't know what Occams Razor says about the reduction of odds by half with two tickets.

    J

    Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

    It's about number behavior.

    Egos don't count.

     

    Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

     

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      Posted: July 1, 2006, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

      How long would it take to win the Cash 5 (on a 5/38 game) playing 2 tickets per drawing? I calculated (check my math if you want) that it would take something like 1,000 years. It took me 1 year after I wrote my first program.

      ODDS ARE MADE TO BE BEATEN!!!! 

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: July 2, 2006, 1:57 am - IP Logged

        The author only gave the how many years example for Powerball.

        Here's the formula though (ouch):

        Suppose that in a series of repeated trials of a game, one has a probability p of winning and probability q of losing at each trial. Let's let the symbol E represent the expected number (average number) of trials one can expect until a win occurs.  At the very first trial the probability of a Awin is p and the corresponding number of trials is 1. The probability of a loss is q and the expected number of trials in this case is 1 plus the expected number of remaining trials, which is again E. Weighing 1 and 1 + E by their respective probabilities we have

        E=p . 1+q (1+E)   (33)

        Since p+q=1, we can replace q in (33) by 1-p and solve for E. A bit of simple algebra yields

        E = 1/p (34)

        What? 

         

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          Posted: July 2, 2006, 3:52 am - IP Logged

          I wish I was that 1 in 120mil.

            Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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            Posted: July 2, 2006, 7:51 am - IP Logged

            From the book The Lottery Book - The Truth Behind the Numbers, by Don Catlin.

            There's been some discussions on the board about playing a second ticket "to cut the odds in half". 

            This is from p 130 of the book mentioned above:

            If the probability of winning a single lottery jackpot is 1 in 120,526,770, the average number of games one would have to play before a win occurred would be 120,526,770 of them. If the game were played twice a week this would mean that, on average, one would have to play for 1,158,911 years before seeing a win. Of course you could cut this down by playing $100 each game, then it would only take 11,589 years on average. Sort of puts it intp perspective, doesn't it? 

            Don't think I'm telling you not to play; I'm just telling you not to expect to win....

            I never did understand where some people got the thinking from that says that if you buy multiple tickets in a drawing that has astronomical odds like the jackpot games do, that somehow this cuts their odds.

             Each line/combination/ticket  that you play has the exact same odds of being drawn.  Each one stands alone when the draw comes. I've bought multiple tickets at times in the past and got zilch.  Then there were times that I bought one little Quickpick on a 6/36 game and a 5/31 game and got 5 of 6 and 4 of 5 respectively.

            When it comes to jackpot games, it's all aa crapshoot.

            ============

            How can you tell if a politician is lying?

            Answer: His lips are moving.

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: July 2, 2006, 2:02 pm - IP Logged

               Indeed it is.

                Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                Posted: July 2, 2006, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

                From the book The Lottery Book - The Truth Behind the Numbers, by Don Catlin.

                There's been some discussions on the board about playing a second ticket "to cut the odds in half". 

                This is from p 130 of the book mentioned above:

                If the probability of winning a single lottery jackpot is 1 in 120,526,770, the average number of games one would have to play before a win occurred would be 120,526,770 of them. If the game were played twice a week this would mean that, on average, one would have to play for 1,158,911 years before seeing a win. Of course you could cut this down by playing $100 each game, then it would only take 11,589 years on average. Sort of puts it intp perspective, doesn't it? 

                Don't think I'm telling you not to play; I'm just telling you not to expect to win....

                I never did understand where some people got the thinking from that says that if you buy multiple tickets in a drawing that has astronomical odds like the jackpot games do, that somehow this cuts their odds.

                 Each line/combination/ticket  that you play has the exact same odds of being drawn.  Each one stands alone when the draw comes. I've bought multiple tickets at times in the past and got zilch.  Then there were times that I bought one little Quickpick on a 6/36 game and a 5/31 game and got 5 of 6 and 4 of 5 respectively.

                When it comes to jackpot games, it's all aa crapshoot.

                I agree with you, Badger. Talk about odds and probability are esoteric arguments in games with huge amounts of possible outcomes.

                Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                  Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                  FEMA Region V Camp #21
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                  Posted: July 2, 2006, 2:40 pm - IP Logged

                  It's like a horse race with 170 million horses lined up. You could have a hundred tickets but you have a phenomenal number of horses who could beat yours to the finish line.

                  Here's an interesting analogy. If you lined up quarters on the highway back-to-back from Chicago to Minneapolis, the chance of picking the right quarter is about the same as winning a 6/49 game. Let's say you get to stop and pick up two quarters along the way. Do you think your chances are that much greater because you picked up that second quarter?

                  Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


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                    Posted: July 2, 2006, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

                    It's like a horse race with 170 million horses lined up. You could have a hundred tickets but you have a phenomenal number of horses who could beat yours to the finish line.

                    Here's an interesting analogy. If you lined up quarters on the highway back-to-back from Chicago to Minneapolis, the chance of picking the right quarter is about the same as winning a 6/49 game. Let's say you get to stop and pick up two quarters along the way. Do you think your chances are that much greater because you picked up that second quarter?

                    Great analogy, RickG.

                    Especially the part about lining them up between Minneapolis and Chicago.

                    I guess the race would be run a mile south, or north?  or a quarter mile if they're quarter horses.

                    That ought to be one for betting long shots. 

                    J

                    Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                    It's about number behavior.

                    Egos don't count.

                     

                    Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                     

                      BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
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                      Posted: July 3, 2006, 12:25 am - IP Logged

                      Either you win or lose, that's 50/50. 

                      Only kidding, but buying two tickets does cut the ODDS in half, not to be confused with the fact you are still playing only two tickets out of millions.

                      Most states that sell two tickets for a dollar cut the odds in half per dollar, they might know what they are doing, though in Canada they don't cut the odds in half, maybe it's a cultural thing like yogurt. BobP

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                        Posted: July 3, 2006, 2:17 am - IP Logged

                        Either you win or lose, that's 50/50. 

                        Only kidding, but buying two tickets does cut the ODDS in half, not to be confused with the fact you are still playing only two tickets out of millions.

                        Most states that sell two tickets for a dollar cut the odds in half per dollar, they might know what they are doing, though in Canada they don't cut the odds in half, maybe it's a cultural thing like yogurt. BobP

                         

                         I GIVE UP.  Some of these posts are a bookie's dream.  I'm sure some of them are really entertaining our provocatauer agents, too. 

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                          Posted: July 3, 2006, 11:00 am - IP Logged

                          There are no provacateur agents on LP.  No pushers.  No cooks.

                           There's only tweakers.

                          There's only family. 

                           

                          Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                          It's about number behavior.

                          Egos don't count.

                           

                          Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser