Heads/Tails /probablity

Reply #49

JADELottery — Fri, 27 Oct 2006 00:49:01 GMT

Interesting related web page ---> http://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html

Reply #48

Pale Rider — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 20:19:10 GMT

Had a feeling something got confused.

Since I don't have a method to decide on whether this particular string will break, will use your second set tonight, replacing the 7 and 9 with the 5 and 6, which are the best two high numbers my current method selects. Although I can see where 3 out of 5 vs. 4 and 7 or 8 in a row vs. 6 would make these decisions easier and a significantly more likely outcome and probably worth the wait to see if they develop further.

016, 035, 125, 026, 045, 135... [ More ]

Reply #47

WIN D — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 19:47:23 GMT

That happens looking and playing toooo many states draws. Of all the people of the world .....I don't mix stats.

The outcome is yet to come for tonight. I played TX,Ga. and OH this afternoon and won 2 of the 3. Will play OH afternoon again Friday. Good luck to you tonight what ever way you go.

You might want to look over TX evening draws for tonight with this method in mind. Looks pretty good. Way too many Mostly High numbers.

Reply #46

Pale Rider — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 19:23:55 GMT

Wind D, thanks a lot for the detailed explanation of how the process breaks down. But what I don't understand is the logic behind how the 5,6,8 broke based on the Midday drawing of 312, when only the Evening data is being considered which is of course the numbers of every other drawing

Reply #45

cps10 — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 18:35:08 GMT

Yep...it's time to move ALL IN

Reply #44

WIN D — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 18:20:29 GMT

If you think the Three string will break today.... and will not cantain any numbers using a 5,,6,,or 8 in the Singles plays it would look like this .....

019, 037, 127, 029, 047, 137, 039, 129, 147, 237, 012, 049, 139, 247, 013, 149, 239, 347, 014, 023, 249, 024, 123, 349, 034, 124, 017, 134, 027, 234

Now.... because the tardy digits or KEY Three digits that are out have been the 4,,3,,and 2 pay particular attention to numbers in both groups that have one of those KEY Three

Reply #43

cps10 — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 17:41:00 GMT

That's a lengthy analysis, Chaz. This will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I wonder how my OH (Mid) worked out today...

Reply #42

cps10 — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 17:38:12 GMT

Well put Thoth. My theory is to use a high enough cut-off to allow myself a good chance of winning, and then only playing for 2 or 3 more draws before stopping that series. As you can see, I have only tested one state. I plan on testing others, but it is time consuming to say the least. Very interesting post nonetheless. Thank you.

Reply #41

WIN D — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 13:51:40 GMT

Thank you very much Pale Rider that one looks very interesting to me because of the Doubles. Seeing 2 doubles in a row is good because it takes the pressure off playing the doubles as insurance. So we get to knock off 27% of the chart there right off the bat. So we are down to 720 that includes subtracting trips.

General Rommel liked to come in right behind Sand storms in the Africa campaign..... He would always surprise the opposing army as they came up from digging out of their fox holes... [ More ]

Reply #40

Pale Rider — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 11:07:20 GMT

Have been watching this thread with great interest and while researching and testing noticed a set which I'd like to present today for analysis and as a possible upcoming play:

10/19/06 Ohio Evening Last 10 Drawings

10/18 886

10/17 699

10/16 187

10/14 670

10/13 255

10/12 563

10/11 748

10/10 574

10/09 115

10/07 558

Main Factors:

Last 8 Draws - Mostly High

Last 6 Draws - Middle Digit High

Secondary Considerations:

#3 out 5 draws, #4 Out 6 draws

#3 only hit 1 time in pa... [ More ]

Reply #39

Thoth — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 07:34:27 GMT

...But then again, if on the 6th consecutive loss you plan on at least on win by (and including) the 10th try, you do have a 93.75% chance of success. Of course, this can be said for any set of 4 consecutive 50/50 tries no matter what lies behind it.

Perhaps it might be more efficient to break that 50/50 down into smaller odds, such as 1/4, 1/8 and 1/16 and try to predict the clusters....---xx-x--xxx--x-x-xx----xx--xxxx. Gonna have to play with this when I get some time.

Reply #38

Thoth — Thu, 19 Oct 2006 07:00:00 GMT

I have done many tests on various 50/50 splits within the Pick 3. The amount of historical data I used is nothing short of empirical. I don't have my charts and graphs here right now to show everything, but the results I attained were somewhat depressing although I pretty much expected them to be that way.

Very few 50% chances lose 13 times or more. 13 flips may seem to be a cut of point, or a most probabable time for things to go the other way, but the fact of the matter is that the two... [ More ]

Reply #37

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:50:59 GMT

Sure.... and only 36 numbers in the 1/5 doubles group too!

If ya gambled and didn't play the 64 singles in the 1/5 group you would only had to put out 9 bucks.... win 75.00 net $66.00

The doubles of the 1/5 group

055, 118, 001, 119, 155, 335, 588, 011, 255, 111, 166, 355, 445, 599, 112, 455, 005, 113, 122, 177, 555, 114, 556, 115, 133, 188, 557, 566, 116, 558, 117, 144, 199, 225, 559, 577

Heck.... even if you played all the singles in the1/5 group too .... all 64 ..... [ More ]

Reply #36

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:40:26 GMT

One thing I noticed today was that in SC Evening, the 1 5 were both out 7 draws...that sucker hit tonight at 855

Reply #35

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:39:02 GMT

Way to go Chaz!! You won, what, $23.50

Reply #34

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:38:08 GMT

Mostly-to-All Odd/Even: +$400

Total profit = $4,500

That is all for those 11 systems that I provided. That is an incredible income for one State/Draw. Especially considering that I lost once! What I would do is wait until 7, then play at the prescribed progression. And then once I have lost 3 straight draws (which would make it out 10 straight draws), then I would quit and start over. Now, I would start over and play the 11th draw at the beginning of the progression. If I hadn't los... [ More ]

Reply #33

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:38:05 GMT

Wish me Luck.... and hope no double kills me.

028, 046, 235, 389, 569, 029, 038, 056, 236, 245, 489, 039, 048, 246, 345, 589, 049, 058, 238, 256, 346, 689, 059, 068, 239, 248, 356, 023, 069, 249, 258, 348, 456, 024, 259, 268, 349, 358, 025, 034, 089, 269, 359, 368, 458, 026, 035, 369, 459, 468, 036, 045, 234, 289, 469, 56

Heh.... no double! Winner 624 WV

Reply #32

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:34:37 GMT

Mostly-to-All In/Out: +$400

Total profit = $4,100

Reply #31

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:34:00 GMT

Mostly -to-All High/Low: $0

Total profit = $3,700

Reply #30

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:30:46 GMT

Odd/Even LDR: +$1,000

Total profit = $3,700

Reply #29

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:25:59 GMT

High/Low LDR: +$1,200

Total profit = $2,700

Reply #28

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:20:13 GMT

3rd Digit Odd/Even: +$1,500

Total profit = $1,500

Reply #27

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:18:35 GMT

Alright...2nd Digit Odd/Even: +$800

Total profit = $0

Reply #26

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:16:16 GMT

Okay...so a first loss...

Odd/Even First Digit: ($2,800)

Down $800.

Reply #25

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:10:21 GMT

$0 for 3rd digit High/Low.

So, still looking at $2,000 total. And this is just one state folks. And just three patterns out of 11.

Reply #24

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:07:58 GMT

Then doing the same thing with the 2nd digit, you had once where you had 7 draws and then a win, and then 8 draws and a win, and using my progression, you are looking at a total of $800.

Grand total so far: $2,000 in one year in SC (E).

Reply #23

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:04:43 GMT

Just did a quick analysis of SC (E)...three times in the past year this high/low went 7 straight draws...then the 8th draw...BAM!!!! It hit...so online, that would have been $1200 just for this one phenomenon in one year. Not bad.

Reply #22

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 23:00:29 GMT

Good luck Chaz

Reply #21

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 22:53:09 GMT

here's a good example Keith ....

WV ..... has had a digit 1 or 7 in it for 8 days in a row OK? Now what does that mean to us? Well, it means all the numbers have come from a SPECIAL group called the 1/7 group ..... There are ruffly 50% or about 48% of the 1000 chart in that group ok? So tonight I played the other side.... not all of the other side mind you.... just the Singles... no doubles or trips. I am going to gamble on no doubles and hold my cost down ...yes.

Here they are the... [ More ]

Reply #20

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 21:23:07 GMT

The problem is...that with that number of combos, you are looking for trouble if they don't hit. Plus, you couldn't play them at the convenience store...too many combos, you know

Reply #19

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 21:21:54 GMT

So 3 digits out 5 days or more? That is interesting...I bet that would be ridiculous odds.

Reply #18

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 21:16:18 GMT

Here's some groups that are even better than 50/50 Keith...... remember my Key Three Digits deal..... where 3 digits are missing for at least 5 days? All at the same time right? Well ....heck if you see that happen thats even better than 50/50. Bump that up to 7 days and we can buggie with those.

Flash some Alerts on those bad boys at around 7 days out...! That's almost a lock. You might really have to back that one off a day or so to even find one.

Here are the missing Key digits per... [ More ]

Reply #17

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:31:00 GMT

This one is to play the quadrants talked about above within the prescribed rules at your local convenience store (obviously you cannot play 50/50 at the convenience store...you would win nothing!):

DRAWBETUNITSIF LOSSIF WIN

1$250 1($250)$250

2$500 2($750)$250

3$1,000 4($1,750)$250

4$2,000 8($3,750)$250

5$4,000 16($7,750)$250

OFFLINE QUADS

Reply #16

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:29:02 GMT

Some progressions to go along with what we have talked about:

DRAWBETUNITSIF LOSSIF WIN

1$500 1($500)$400

2$1,000 2($1,500)$300

3$2,000 4($3,500)$100

ONLINE 50/50

This one is to play a 50/50 game within the prescribed rules at the online store.

Reply #15

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:20:21 GMT

¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ x ¾ = 0.0031712119389 So less than 4 times in 1,000 that this would go past 20 draws. Pretty amazing.

Reply #14

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:16:38 GMT

The problem next will be to allow the non-online players to capitalize on this phenomenon. That is where the quadrants come in for sure. Split them up into fours and you allow yourself to have these suckers come in once every month at least, wouldn't you say? And that would guarantee your win. If you see that in 28 days or, some adjustable number that we could determine, that 000-249 has not come in, then blow that sucker up! It's time to jump on that party train

Reply #13

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:14:20 GMT

Yes, it is...the thing is that I'm sure it's been thought of, but with the wide spread of online play, and the availability of so many states, not many have gone through the lengths. Anyway, here is the updated list of Edit Checks (these each have 500 numbers on each side):

EVEN CHANCE LIST FOR PICK-3

1High/Low First Digit

2High/Low Second Digit

3High/Low Third Digit

4Odd/Even First Digit

5Odd/Even Second Digit

6Odd/Even Third Digit

7High/Low LDR

8Odd/Even... [ More ]

Reply #12

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:10:36 GMT

Love to see those Edit Checks set up Keith ..... what a great thing that would be to play with. It's just hard to believe that we would be the first to plug this in. This hobby is still so new isn't it? That makes it exciting doesn't it

Reply #11

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 20:03:33 GMT

Yes, I agree. Of course, you could always cut off at a certain number of times that you would bet...maybe 2 or 3 most, like you were saying the 3 draw window. Then shut it down. There would be plenty of other winners for you to capitalize on at that time.

Reply #10

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:49:18 GMT

The highest skip I have ever seen is 15 ...... one time. That covers alot of games and many many different groups. In my particular state I would consider it very strange to get more than 9 in a row of anything .....2 times a year. The odds must go up dramatically at around 8 to 9 ..... its just soooo rare.

This is what a progressive bettor should live for. Those rare times.

The most obvious groups are the mostly High..mostly lows .....Mostly odds evens. The only trouble ofcourse are... [ More ]

Reply #9

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:41:17 GMT

Here are the 8 that I can come up with so far...

EVEN CHANCE LIST FOR PICK-3

1High/Low First Digit

2High/Low Second Digit

3High/Low Third Digit

4Odd/Even First Digit

5Odd/Even Second Digit

6Odd/Even Third Digit

7High/Low LDR

8Odd/Even LDR

Reply #8

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:27:21 GMT

Well, once a year times 52 states with drawings times $400 profit is over $20 grand a year!!

Besides, if you work with many different variables, like I have started in the post above, then perhaps you could bet once a month in each state? But 7 sounds reasonable. I wonder what the highest skip would be when this phenomenon occurs?

I would be curious to see how such a thing would go.

Reply #7

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:20:29 GMT

We might set our alert flags a little lower than 10 ..... unless you only want to bet about once a year. LOL

I would guess about 7 is a good place to be .... Really safe most of the time.

Ricky ask me once about Cycles.... and what I meant about most things can't make it past 7 cycles . It is true you know.....most things can't. Most never get that far to begin with ! LOL

That's more toward a group or some structure skipping 7 times the Math Average. ....but I think it will w... [ More ]

Reply #6

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:07:25 GMT

I bet we could put together a LONG LIST of 50/50s and run them as Edit Checks to spit out those that have gone 10 straight in one direction. That at least gives you the 1 in 1,000+ that corresponds to your odds in this game. That way you can feel comfortable that your PROBABILITY will be very good that you will win. Or would you prefer 11 straight times out where it is 1 in 2,048 or 12 times where it is 1 in 4,096, or perhaps, with Ricky's cut off, 8 times out, would be 13 straight sides at 1 in... [ More ]

Reply #5

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 18:50:21 GMT

Thanks cps10..... but you know as many as I do and maybe even more. The most common ones are ....

Mostly Odd ....Mostly Even numbers... 500/500

Mostly High...Mostly Low numbers ...... 500/500

Digits by position ....50/50 high/low odd/even open/closed

If you see the last 7 doubles have all been ODD..... most likely the next will be a EVEN. Same for a doubles (swing number) or the 3rd. number. If you see it has been odd several times in a row when the doubles hit.... go t... [ More ]

Reply #4

cps10 — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 17:58:50 GMT

Chaz,

Excellent post...I have thought that often with the high/low numbers...when you see numbers come out at less than 500 7 times in a row, time to bet 500-999!!!

Do you have a list of all of the 50/50 chances on a Pick-3 game? I could put those in my own number series in my software and it will trigger for a certain number of times when one side hits in a row more than another. Of course, this would be a straight hit.

Reply #3

WIN D — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 17:47:15 GMT

OH brother..... have you missed some great post on that subject.

That has nothing to do with this. Probability is really history or as I like to say....

Probability is when math meets common sense

If you don't want to do a search on the subject ..... just count how many times you had 10 in a row of anything that is 50/50 in a pick 3 game. Then look for anything 9 in a row..... etc. Rare ,,,rare,,rare,,

Odds don't change.... but probabili... [ More ]

Reply #2

Coin Toss — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 14:36:44 GMT

Here is the simple.. chart to figure your chances on these 50/50 groups ....just like a coin toss.

There's something else to consider though, dice, cards, coins, roulette balls, and even lottery numbers have no memory .

In other words, the coin doesn't know it has landed on heads eight times in a row.

Reply #1

WIN D — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 22:42:15 GMT

Win d Chances Are Chart

Odds, chances, and Probability

Here is the simple.. chart to figure your chances on these 50/50 groups ....just like a coin toss.

Remember... an event can be one contest, play or game.... or.... it can be a several plays or events all grouped together as one game.

1 in 2 .... chance or probability

2 in 4

3 in 8

4 in 16 ....most Stinkers flip back the other way here..if they make it here

5 in 32 ....* This is whe... [ More ]

Heads/Tails /probablity

WIN D — Fri, 13 Oct 2006 22:04:32 GMT

The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

(also available on Win d's Blog)

The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events states that if several events, A1, A2, ..., An, are independent, then P(A1 A2 ... An) = P(A1) * P(A2) * ... * P(An).

What does this mean? 50/50 Heads or Tails

Applied to coins, A1 can be the event of getting a heads on the first flip of the coin. A2 is the event of getting a heads on the second... [ More ]