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Heads/Tails /probablity

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 10 years ago by JADELottery.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
United States
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November 2, 2002
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Posted: October 13, 2006, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                 The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events

                    (also available on Win d's Blog)           

 

  The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events states that if several events, A1, A2, ..., An, are independent, then P(A1 A2 ... An) = P(A1) * P(A2) * ... * P(An).

        What does this mean?  50/50  Heads or Tails

Applied to coins, A1 can be the event of getting a heads on the first flip of the coin. A2 is the event of getting a heads on the second flip of the coin. An is the event of getting a heads on the nth flip of the coin. Since the probability of each event is 1/2, the probability of getting two heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4. The probability of getting 5 heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/32.

 There are many examples of 50/50 events in the Pick-3 game such as High/Low, Odd/Even. Any group of numbers that you can balance into equal likely events are All subject to this formula. Applied to Pick-3 it opens up many opportunities.

 Keep this in mind the next time you notice 7 or 8 Even digits stacked on top of each other...... or you see 5 or 6 draws or continuous string of equally like  events.  (2 even and 1 odd digits) etc.

  "Chances Are" You won't have to wear a silly grin after the next draw.... if you play with this formula in mind and "you might win a prize."   

  Use these numbers below to figure the odds on any 50/50 event in Pick-3.  When ever you see a string of MO'(mostly even) numbers or ME's (mostly even) since there are 500 of these each....that's a 50/50 opportunity to use the rule. 

 If you use the 10 column Sums chart it is half odd and half even.......it is also half high and half low

 If you see 6 odd doubles in a row.....check the odds of it going 7 in a row. The same thing can apply to the  3rd. (swing numbers) of those doubles. The doubles 3rd. number. If you see the last 7 doubles (regardless of high/low-odd/even) all hit with (high/low or odd/even) swing number digits.....well you get the idea...check the chart for the odds this will continue. 

 If you find that the last 6 or 7 consecutive Straights were all High ......

 If you find that the last 5 or 6 (all high or all low group) were all the same or came from the same half.........

 Look and find as many of these 50/50 groups as you can and track them ...... Most of the time they swing back and forth and act nice. When they don't and they start to stack up on each other .....that's our chance for a trap. At least we will be fishing in the right half of the swimming pool.      

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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    Posted: October 13, 2006, 6:42 pm - IP Logged

                                " Win d Chances Are Chart"

                     Odds, chances, and Probability

    Here is the simple.. chart  to figure your chances on these 50/50 groups ....just like a coin toss.

     Remember... an event can be one contest, play or game.... or.... it can be a several plays or events all grouped together as one game.

     1 in 2  .... chance or probability

     2 in 4

     3 in 8

     4 in 16 ....most Stinkers flip back the other way here..if they make it here  

     5 in 32 ....* This is where I miss alot.. waiting too long for the next safer one to start playing.

     6 in 64 ......pretty safe place to start a Trap.

     7 in 128......rare

     8 in 256......very rare

     9 in 512......lucky if you see one of these a year 

     10 in 1024...almost never

     11 in 2048 ...It's a rigged game! Call the cops..LOL 

     12 in 4096

     13 in 8,192

     14 in 16,384

     15 in 32,768

     20 in 1,048,576 

     Ever see 20 coin fips land the same way? Here is why.  It does happen .... but only about 1 time in a million !    .....oh yeah... and another ...48,576  Almost left that off. LOL

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: October 18, 2006, 10:36 am - IP Logged

      "Here is the simple.. chart  to figure your chances on these 50/50 groups ....just like a coin toss."

      Smile

       There's something else to consider though, dice, cards, coins, roulette balls, and even lottery numbers "have no memory".

      In other words, the coin "doesn't know" it has landed on heads eight times in a row.  

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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        Posted: October 18, 2006, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

        OH brother..... have you missed some great post on that subject.

          That has nothing to do with this. Probability is really history or as I like to say....

                  "Probability is when math meets common sense" 

         

          If you don't want to do a search on the subject ..... just count how many times you had 10 in a row of anything that is 50/50 in a pick 3 game. Then look for anything 9 in a row..... etc.  Rare ,,,rare,,rare,, 

                    Odds don't change.... but probabilities do.   

                                                    Win  d

            The odds are always 50'50 with a coin toss.... and do not change...but..the chances ...or probability that you can toss 20 heads in a row is not even close. Look over those numbers and probabilities again. I didn't make up the word PROBABILITY ......it's a real thing ya know... LOL

         

            Yeah.... those numbers don't have memory but I do..... and you do too..... and none of us can ever remember seeing a coin toss go 20 times in a row. ...or even 15 most likely.....and so forth and etc etc.   You call me and most of the folks that play here the next time you spot a 50/50 pick 3 deal thats gone over 7 times in a row.... we all would consider it a great favor. See which way we bet it .... LOL          

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
          The Carolinas - Charlotte
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          Posted: October 18, 2006, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

          OH brother..... have you missed some great post on that subject.

            That has nothing to do with this. Probability is really history or as I like to say....

                    "Probability is when math meets common sense" 

           

            If you don't want to do a search on the subject ..... just count how many times you had 10 in a row of anything that is 50/50 in a pick 3 game. Then look for anything 9 in a row..... etc.  Rare ,,,rare,,rare,, 

                      Odds don't change.... but probabilities do.   

                                                      Win  d

              The odds are always 50'50 with a coin toss.... and do not change...but..the chances ...or probability that you can toss 20 heads in a row is not even close. Look over those numbers and probabilities again. I didn't make up the word PROBABILITY ......it's a real thing ya know... LOL

           

              Yeah.... those numbers don't have memory but I do..... and you do too..... and none of us can ever remember seeing a coin toss go 20 times in a row. ...or even 15 most likely.....and so forth and etc etc.   You call me and most of the folks that play here the next time you spot a 50/50 pick 3 deal thats gone over 7 times in a row.... we all would consider it a great favor. See which way we bet it .... LOL          

          Chaz,

          Excellent post...I have thought that often with the high/low numbers...when you see numbers come out at less than 500 7 times in a row, time to bet 500-999!!!

          Do you have a list of all of the 50/50 chances on a Pick-3 game? I could put those in my own number series in my software and it will trigger for a certain number of times when one side hits in a row more than another. Of course, this would be a straight hit.

          The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

          Stooges

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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            Posted: October 18, 2006, 2:50 pm - IP Logged

             Thanks cps10.....  but you know as many as I do and maybe even more. The most common ones are ....

             Mostly Odd ....Mostly Even numbers...  500/500

             Mostly High...Mostly Low numbers ......  500/500

             Digits by position ....50/50  high/low odd/even    open/closed

             If you see the last 7 doubles have all been ODD..... most likely the next will be a EVEN.  Same for a doubles (swing number) or the 3rd. number. If you see it has been odd several times in a row when the doubles hit.... go the other way.

              Short Sums ..or LDS  .... half/half  odd/evens  high/lows   

             

              Any thing will work ....  I promise you that. If you take any equal amount of numbers 50/50 and put them into 2 evenly divided groups it will work.  Group 1  Group 2    that will be your 50/50.... one odd and one even ...one high ..one low ....

             No matter what you put in there as long as its balanced it works.  

             

              Anybody.. call out any numbers ....any at all and we will divide them into 2 groups ....regardless of odd,even, high, low.... it doesn't matter ....  and at the end of the year they will almost be equal.  Same amount of trips and doubles in each group .....and it will work the same way.  Year after year. The longer it goes on the closer it gets. .."Law of large Numbers" (not made up)

              Numbers don't have memory.....  but at the end of the year almost every state will end up with 50/50 everything. 

              While we are on the numbers don't have memory thing... ..    

              The numbers don't have memory.... but every year almost every state's 365 game will end up with 262 Single numbers .... 3.5 triples.... and about 90 doubles .....

             Numbers don't have memory but every year each state will end up with around 21.9 consecutive straights.... 21.9 all odd singles and 21.9 all even singles .

            ......50% of all the doubles will be Odd and the other half will be Even.....  half will have even swing numbers and the other odd.... half high ...half low...... 

             At the end of the year almost every state that has a 365 game will end up having 36 straights that start with a digit 1.... 36 that start with a digit 2..... 36 with 3.... etc etc.   

              No..... they don't have memory but we do. At least until we are around 50 years old anyway. LOL  

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
              The Carolinas - Charlotte
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              Posted: October 18, 2006, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

              I bet we could put together a LONG LIST of 50/50s and run them as Edit Checks to spit out those that have gone 10 straight in one direction. That at least gives you the 1 in 1,000+ that corresponds to your odds in this game. That way you can feel comfortable that your PROBABILITY will be very good that you will win. Or would you prefer 11 straight times out where it is 1 in 2,048 or 12 times where it is 1 in 4,096, or perhaps, with Ricky's cut off, 8 times out, would be 13 straight sides at 1 in 8,192!!!

              Let's think on this for a while...

              Right now we can compile a list...

              To start:

              1. Highs/Lows (such as 000-499 and 500-999)

              2. Odds/Evens (100 series, 300, 500, 700, etc.)

              3. High/Low 2nd Digit

              4. High/Low 3rd Digit

              5. Odd/Even 2nd Digit

              6. Odd/Even 3rd Digit

              We must have even groups regardless. Maybe on the Grids, you look at Top half, Bottom half...

              The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

              Stooges

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                Posted: October 18, 2006, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

                 We might set our alert flags a little lower than 10 ..... unless you only want to bet about once a year. LOL

                 I would guess about 7 is a good place to be .... Really safe most of the time.

                 Ricky ask me once about Cycles.... and what I meant about "most things can't make it past 7 cycles". It is true you know.....most things can't. Most never get that far to begin with ! LOL    

                 That's more toward a group or some structure skipping 7 times the Math Average. ....but I think it will work here.

                 It really has to do with someones comfort level ...betting that is. I try to play high enough where my hit has about a 85% to  90% chance to hit within a 3 day window.  Thats usually 6 or 7  

                 Really too high for a single state .....because not that many come by that high ...50/50 in one state. .. but ...with all the states we can monitor now it might be just about right.  I'm not kidding ....finding even 9 iin a row country wide is really hard... and thats over 55 games a day.    

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                  The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                  Posted: October 18, 2006, 3:27 pm - IP Logged

                  Well, once a year times 52 states with drawings times $400 profit is over $20 grand a year!!

                  Besides, if you work with many different variables, like I have started in the post above, then perhaps you could bet once a month in each state? But 7 sounds reasonable. I wonder what the highest skip would be when this phenomenon occurs?

                  I would be curious to see how such a thing would go.

                  The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                  Stooges

                    cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                    The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                    Posted: October 18, 2006, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

                    Here are the 8 that I can come up with so far...

                     

                    EVEN CHANCE LIST FOR PICK-3 
                      
                    1High/Low First Digit
                    2High/Low Second Digit
                    3High/Low Third Digit
                    4Odd/Even First Digit
                    5Odd/Even Second Digit
                    6Odd/Even Third Digit
                    7High/Low LDR
                    8Odd/Even LDR

                    The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                    Stooges

                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                      Posted: October 18, 2006, 3:49 pm - IP Logged

                       The highest skip I have ever seen is 15 ...... one time. That covers alot of games and many many different groups. In my particular state I would consider it very strange to get more than 9 in a row of anything .....2 times a year.  The odds must go up dramatically at around 8 to 9 ..... its just soooo rare.

                       This is what a progressive bettor should live for. Those rare times.

                        The most obvious groups are the mostly High..mostly lows .....Mostly odds evens. The only trouble ofcourse are the large amount of numbers on the other side. Before the quarter places came along.... this was out of the question of Hobby plays..LOL   Nice big giant filters ...thats for sure..... but as Systems plays just by themselves ? Hmmm  500 x .25 = 125.

                        win.... 37.50 or 75.00 ..... Hmmm      Great big filters however.  

                        Seems like these babies never line up just on the other side of say ..... 4 doubles so we could cut those out at least. No.... but one day they jus t might.

                       

                       

                      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                             Win d    

                        cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                        The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                        Posted: October 18, 2006, 4:03 pm - IP Logged

                        Yes, I agree. Of course, you could always cut off at a certain number of times that you would bet...maybe 2 or 3 most, like you were saying the 3 draw window. Then shut it down. There would be plenty of other winners for you to capitalize on at that time.

                        The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                        Stooges

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
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                          Posted: October 18, 2006, 4:10 pm - IP Logged

                          Love to see those Edit Checks set up Keith ..... what a great thing that would be to play with. It's just hard to believe that we would be the first to plug this in. This hobby is still so new isn't it?  That makes it exciting doesn't it?

                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d    

                            cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                            The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                            Posted: October 18, 2006, 4:14 pm - IP Logged

                            Love to see those Edit Checks set up Keith ..... what a great thing that would be to play with. It's just hard to believe that we would be the first to plug this in. This hobby is still so new isn't it?  That makes it exciting doesn't it?

                            Yes, it is...the thing is that I'm sure it's been thought of, but with the wide spread of online play, and the availability of so many states, not many have gone through the lengths. Anyway, here is the updated list of Edit Checks (these each have 500 numbers on each side):

                             

                            EVEN CHANCE LIST FOR PICK-3 
                              
                            1High/Low First Digit
                            2High/Low Second Digit
                            3High/Low Third Digit
                            4Odd/Even First Digit
                            5Odd/Even Second Digit
                            6Odd/Even Third Digit
                            7High/Low LDR
                            8Odd/Even LDR
                            9Mostly-to-All High/Low
                            10Mostly-to-All Odd/Even
                            11Mostly-to-All In/Out

                            The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                            Stooges

                              cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                              The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                              Posted: October 18, 2006, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

                              The problem next will be to allow the non-online players to capitalize on this phenomenon. That is where the quadrants come in for sure. Split them up into fours and you allow yourself to have these suckers come in once every month at least, wouldn't you say? And that would guarantee your win. If you see that in 28 days or, some adjustable number that we could determine, that 000-249 has not come in, then blow that sucker up! It's time to jump on that party train!

                              The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                              Stooges