Powerball or MegaMillions which will grow to 300+million

Reply #16

ryanm — Fri, 02 Mar 2007 00:12:47 GMT

They may not be underestimating the cash jackpot, but may be diverting money from the jackpot to a set cash prize reserve like Powerball does.

Reply #15

Just6ntlc — Thu, 01 Mar 2007 04:28:44 GMT

If Mega Millions rolls one more time, it'll set their own game record. I hope Mega Millions rolls once more.

Reply #14

CA LotteryGuy — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 18:07:52 GMT

KY Floyd...thanks for the response. Good to learn your process.

Your comments about the Ohio lottery's website are right on target. If you click on the link that lists the cash value, there is a full description on how and when they come up with the estimated cash value. It makes sense that this figure is based upon the estimated sales figure.

Interesting to note that it looks like the estimate for the next draw is done early in the morning on the day of the draw, as evidenced by the... [ More ]

Reply #13

KY Floyd — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 17:17:51 GMT

It's done the way twisted described it, though I used slightly different numbers. The previous jackpot was advertised as $216 million with a cash value of about $127 million, so I figured a cash increase of about $32 million. I suspected the sales might have pushed it a bit higher than $127 million, but I didn't think it was worth looking up exact figures. I also just figure 30 cents of each dollar towards the jackpot.

FWIW, the Ohio lottery's website (www.ohiolottery.com) lists the cash... [ More ]

Reply #12

CA LotteryGuy — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 17:00:26 GMT

Twisted...thanks for your reply. I did the same calculations you did and also came up with an estimated sales figure of $87.4 million.

I was wondering where KY Floyd came up with his number of $108 million. Maybe he already has considered the underestimation by Mega Millions.

Reply #11

twisted — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 16:24:16 GMT

MM designates 31.8% of sales towards the jackpot. So far, they have generated $411,473,545 in sales this run. That means the cash value for the last jackpot of $216 million was $130,848,587.31 (they had estimates $126,792,000 as the cash value).

Now the estimated cash value is $158,645,259 (I think it will be higher). So the difference between the last cash value and the current cash value is $27,796,672. This difference represents the 31.8% of sales from the current rollover and you ju... [ More ]

Reply #10

CA LotteryGuy — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 15:43:38 GMT

KY Floyd...how did you determine your estimated sales figure of $108 million?

I agree the next jackpot would be around $325 million with an cash value around $191 million. It would be very interesting to see if the Mega Millions folks would promote this largest ever US cash jackpot. I think they will not take this route, too confusing to the mass market and $325 million is a very impressive number, even though it is annuity based.

Reply #9

DoubleDown — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 12:40:43 GMT

Yes, it would be interesting to see how MM would publicize this..

I would not mind being the record holder......

Reply #8

KY Floyd — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 07:47:16 GMT

The advertised jackpot suggests estimated sales of about $108 million. I think sales will be a bit higher, but the chances for another roll will still be better than 50%, so probability says MM will break 300 on this run.

What is 100% certain is that another roll will mean a US record for the jackpot. PB's fictional $365 million jackpot of a year ago paid about $178 million in cash. If it does roll again, the next MM jackpot will be at least $325 million. The cash payout would set a record... [ More ]

Reply #7

Just6ntlc — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 06:44:00 GMT

MM Jackpot for Friday 3/2 has rolled to 267 million. I hope MM rolls one more time until the jackpot is hit.

Reply #6

ryanm — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 03:08:24 GMT

Oh yeah, I'll definitely take the cash option if/when I win too.

Reply #5

Just6ntlc — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 03:02:27 GMT

I want to see a new United States jackpot record and it has to be Mega Millions.

Reply #4

Todd — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 02:47:40 GMT

Reply #3

Just6ntlc — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 01:35:27 GMT

My vote is Mega Millions. I hope Mega Millions rolls until someone wins a jackpot between 300 and 365 million.

Reply #2

dvdiva — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 19:07:36 GMT

While you may not care about the jackpot amount most people do judging from sales. I don't think it will hit $300 thought. I have had far to much disapointment from Mega never going anywhere to get excited about it anymore.

I can say if it did hit 300 the sales would be the highest in it's history judging from the pent-up demand for high jackpots and the long history of low jackpots that Mega has had.

Reply #1

OldSchoolPa — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 18:53:49 GMT

Hate to bust your bubble...looks like we're going to be sharing this jackpot as I will win Mega tonight. Truthfully, I don't care what the jackpot prize amount is...$12 million is still $12 million more than I currently have just as $216 million is $127 million I will have tonight (or actually tomorrow after I drive down to Springfield to claim the jackpot!)!

Oh BTW, that wasn't an error in division or typography...I only indicated that I would take the cash value and not the annuity.... [ More ]

Powerball or MegaMillions which will grow to 300+million

petergrfn — Tue, 27 Feb 2007 18:29:42 GMT

I know the smart money is on MegaMillions becuase the jackpot is at $216 million. But do you think it will keep rolling or be hit before reaching 300 million or higher? Or is this a record setting run will we see the jackpot top $365million? Sorry for all the questions just curious if you think this jackpot will go any higher. I would like to see another record breaking jackpot run but I don't think it will be this time as I plan to hit the MM jackpot tonight..LOL. But seriously I think the... [ More ]