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Powerball or MegaMillions which will grow to 300+million

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 10 years ago by ryanm.

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Which will grow to 300 million first Powerball or MegaMillions?

Powerball [ 3 ]  [13.64%]
MegaMillions [ 17 ]  [77.27%]
Other [ 2 ]  [9.09%]
Total Valid Votes [ 22 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 0 ]  
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United States
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November 16, 2005
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Posted: February 27, 2007, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

I know the smart money is on MegaMillions becuase the jackpot is at $216 million. But do you think it will keep rolling or be hit before reaching 300 million or higher?  Or is this a record setting run will we see the jackpot top $365million?  Sorry for all the questions just curious if you think this jackpot will go any higher.  I would like to see another record breaking jackpot run but I don't think it will be this time as I plan to hit the MM jackpot tonight..LOL.  But seriously I think the jackpot for MegaMillions is at a perfect level; large enough to do about anything you want purchase wise and under the media "radar" so it could be claimed anonymously.  Best of both worlds.  As far as my poll goes my vote is Powerball it's at $90 million and will go much higher in my opinion. MegaMillions will be won before it gets to $300 million.  What do you think?

    OldSchoolPa's avatar - Lottery-057.jpg
    Gurnee, Illinois
    United States
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    February 12, 2007
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    Posted: February 27, 2007, 1:53 pm - IP Logged

    I know the smart money is on MegaMillions becuase the jackpot is at $216 million. But do you think it will keep rolling or be hit before reaching 300 million or higher?  Or is this a record setting run will we see the jackpot top $365million?  Sorry for all the questions just curious if you think this jackpot will go any higher.  I would like to see another record breaking jackpot run but I don't think it will be this time as I plan to hit the MM jackpot tonight..LOL.  But seriously I think the jackpot for MegaMillions is at a perfect level; large enough to do about anything you want purchase wise and under the media "radar" so it could be claimed anonymously.  Best of both worlds.  As far as my poll goes my vote is Powerball it's at $90 million and will go much higher in my opinion. MegaMillions will be won before it gets to $300 million.  What do you think?

    Hate to bust your bubble...looks like we're going to be sharing this jackpot as I will win Mega tonight.  Truthfully, I don't care what the jackpot prize amount is...$12 million is still $12 million more than I currently have just as $216 million is $127 million I will have tonight (or actually tomorrow after I drive down to Springfield to claim the jackpot!)!

     Oh BTW, that wasn't an error in division or typography...I only indicated that I would take the cash value and not the annuity.

    Get MONEY!!! Winning a JACKPOT lottery is all the HOPE and CHANGE I desire!!!  NOW give me MONEY!US Flag

    The guy who won the presidency in 2008 really won the lottery...he is now millions richer, travels in first class style, and even has a staff that would be the envy of the richest Powerball winner (she has a staff of 2). Every night he goes to sleep, he probably plays the close of Dave Chappelle's Show: I'm rich beyatch!

      dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

      United States
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      Posted: February 27, 2007, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

      While you may not care about the jackpot amount most people do judging from sales. I don't think it will hit $300 thought. I have had far to much disapointment from Mega never going anywhere to get excited about it anymore.

      I can say if it did hit 300 the sales would be the highest in it's history judging from the pent-up demand for high jackpots and the long history of low jackpots that Mega has had.


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        Posted: February 27, 2007, 8:35 pm - IP Logged

        My vote is Mega Millions. I hope Mega Millions rolls until someone wins a jackpot between 300 and 365 million.

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
          New Jersey
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          Posted: February 27, 2007, 9:47 pm - IP Logged

          <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

          Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.


            United States
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            June 2, 2005
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            Posted: February 27, 2007, 10:02 pm - IP Logged

            I want to see a new United States jackpot record and it has to be Mega Millions.

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              Morrison, IL
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              Posted: February 27, 2007, 10:08 pm - IP Logged

              Hate to bust your bubble...looks like we're going to be sharing this jackpot as I will win Mega tonight.  Truthfully, I don't care what the jackpot prize amount is...$12 million is still $12 million more than I currently have just as $216 million is $127 million I will have tonight (or actually tomorrow after I drive down to Springfield to claim the jackpot!)!

               Oh BTW, that wasn't an error in division or typography...I only indicated that I would take the cash value and not the annuity.

              Oh yeah, I'll definitely take the cash option if/when I win too.


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                Posted: February 28, 2007, 1:44 am - IP Logged

                MM Jackpot for Friday 3/2 has rolled to 267 million. I hope MM rolls one more time until the jackpot is hit.

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                  NY
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                  Posted: February 28, 2007, 2:47 am - IP Logged

                  The advertised jackpot suggests estimated sales of about $108 million. I think sales will be a bit higher, but the chances for another roll will still be better than 50%, so probability says MM will break 300 on this run. 

                  What is 100% certain is that another roll will mean a US record for the jackpot.  PB's fictional $365 million jackpot of a year ago paid about $178 million in cash. If it does roll again, the next MM jackpot will be at least  $325 million. The cash payout would set a record by more than $10 million over any previous US lottery prize. It would be interesting to see if MM would lay claim to the record at the risk of publicizing how inflated the annuity values are.

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                    Coastal Georgia
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                    Posted: February 28, 2007, 7:40 am - IP Logged

                    The advertised jackpot suggests estimated sales of about $108 million. I think sales will be a bit higher, but the chances for another roll will still be better than 50%, so probability says MM will break 300 on this run. 

                    What is 100% certain is that another roll will mean a US record for the jackpot.  PB's fictional $365 million jackpot of a year ago paid about $178 million in cash. If it does roll again, the next MM jackpot will be at least  $325 million. The cash payout would set a record by more than $10 million over any previous US lottery prize. It would be interesting to see if MM would lay claim to the record at the risk of publicizing how inflated the annuity values are.

                    I Agree!  Yes, it would be interesting to see how MM would publicize this..

                    I would not mind being the record holder...... 

                     

                                                   

                                  

                     

                     

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                      California
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                      Posted: February 28, 2007, 10:43 am - IP Logged

                      The advertised jackpot suggests estimated sales of about $108 million. I think sales will be a bit higher, but the chances for another roll will still be better than 50%, so probability says MM will break 300 on this run. 

                      What is 100% certain is that another roll will mean a US record for the jackpot.  PB's fictional $365 million jackpot of a year ago paid about $178 million in cash. If it does roll again, the next MM jackpot will be at least  $325 million. The cash payout would set a record by more than $10 million over any previous US lottery prize. It would be interesting to see if MM would lay claim to the record at the risk of publicizing how inflated the annuity values are.

                      KY Floyd...how did you determine your estimated sales figure of $108 million? 

                      I agree the next jackpot would be around $325 million with an cash value around $191 million.  It would be very interesting to see if the Mega Millions folks would promote this largest ever US cash jackpot.  I think they will not take this route, too confusing to the mass market and $325 million is a very impressive number, even though it is annuity based.

                        twisted's avatar - underground
                        New Jersey
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                        Posted: February 28, 2007, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                        KY Floyd...how did you determine your estimated sales figure of $108 million? 

                        I agree the next jackpot would be around $325 million with an cash value around $191 million.  It would be very interesting to see if the Mega Millions folks would promote this largest ever US cash jackpot.  I think they will not take this route, too confusing to the mass market and $325 million is a very impressive number, even though it is annuity based.

                        MM designates 31.8% of sales towards the jackpot.  So far, they have generated $411,473,545 in sales this run.  That means the cash value for the last jackpot of $216 million was $130,848,587.31 (they had estimates $126,792,000 as the cash value).

                        Now the estimated cash value is $158,645,259 (I think it will be higher).  So the difference between the last cash value and the current cash value is  $27,796,672.  This difference represents the 31.8% of sales from the current rollover  and you just divide $27,796,672 by .318.  That gives you the estimated sales of $87,410,918.  

                        I think they are really underestimating the current jackpot.  The sales will probably be around $95 million.  I have noticed that when they usually underestimate the jackpot amount by this much, someone usually wins.

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                          California
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                          Posted: February 28, 2007, 12:00 pm - IP Logged

                          MM designates 31.8% of sales towards the jackpot.  So far, they have generated $411,473,545 in sales this run.  That means the cash value for the last jackpot of $216 million was $130,848,587.31 (they had estimates $126,792,000 as the cash value).

                          Now the estimated cash value is $158,645,259 (I think it will be higher).  So the difference between the last cash value and the current cash value is  $27,796,672.  This difference represents the 31.8% of sales from the current rollover  and you just divide $27,796,672 by .318.  That gives you the estimated sales of $87,410,918.  

                          I think they are really underestimating the current jackpot.  The sales will probably be around $95 million.  I have noticed that when they usually underestimate the jackpot amount by this much, someone usually wins.

                          Twisted...thanks for your reply.  I did the same calculations you did and also came up with an estimated sales figure of $87.4 million. 

                          I was wondering where KY Floyd came up with his number of $108 million.  Maybe he already has considered the underestimation by Mega Millions.

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                            NY
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                            Posted: February 28, 2007, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                            It's done the way twisted described it, though I used slightly different numbers.  The previous jackpot was advertised as $216 million with a cash value of about $127 million, so I figured a cash increase of about $32 million. I suspected the sales might have pushed it a bit higher than $127 million, but I didn't think it was worth looking up exact figures.  I also just figure 30 cents of each dollar towards the jackpot.

                            FWIW, the Ohio lottery's website  (www.ohiolottery.com) lists the cash value right to the dollar, which is obviously impossible when you haven't sold the tickets yet.  I'm guessing that MM estimate sales and decides on the amount they'll advertise as the annuity, and then lists the cash value based on what it will cost to fund the annuity. 

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                              California
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                              Posted: February 28, 2007, 1:07 pm - IP Logged

                              It's done the way twisted described it, though I used slightly different numbers.  The previous jackpot was advertised as $216 million with a cash value of about $127 million, so I figured a cash increase of about $32 million. I suspected the sales might have pushed it a bit higher than $127 million, but I didn't think it was worth looking up exact figures.  I also just figure 30 cents of each dollar towards the jackpot.

                              FWIW, the Ohio lottery's website  (www.ohiolottery.com) lists the cash value right to the dollar, which is obviously impossible when you haven't sold the tickets yet.  I'm guessing that MM estimate sales and decides on the amount they'll advertise as the annuity, and then lists the cash value based on what it will cost to fund the annuity. 

                              KY Floyd...thanks for the response.  Good to learn your process.

                              Your comments about the Ohio lottery's website are right on target.  If you click on the link that lists the cash value, there is a full description on how and when they come up with the estimated cash value.  It makes sense that this figure is based upon the estimated sales figure. 

                              Interesting to note that it looks like the estimate for the next draw is done early in the morning on the day of the draw, as evidenced by the notation that the goverment securties for the annuity were based on a purchase price at 10:30 am ET.  This is 12.5 hours before the draw and well before the last minute rush of ticket purchases.  Mabe this is why it is so hard to predict the jackpot when it gets up over the $200 million mark and there is the last minute run on tickets.

                              I am aware that both Texas and Massachusetts list on their web sites the cash value on a rounded basis.  I wonder why more states and the Mega Millions site don't list this figure?