how many weeks should i back check to know if my system is for real?

Reply #7

RJOh — Tue, 13 Mar 2007 00:24:56 GMT

How much you can depend on back testing may depend on whether your system is dynamic or static and the odds of the game you're testing. Simulating conditions of pass drawings can be tricky and knowing what the results were can cause you to simulate success.

I prefer to backup my back testing with some forward testing, that is once I think a system is showing some promise I'll use it to make a few predictions and if it continues to be successful then I have some confidence in it.

Since... [ More ]

Reply #6

guesser — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 20:46:31 GMT

Keep in mind the data is only relative from the date you start compiling it, ie If you decide you want to go back 50 games, that's fine, but there may be MUCH different info that would massively skew the results if you went back 60 games, let alone 100 or more games.

Reply #5

demdude — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 20:30:48 GMT

Or a straight/box, less money in the winnings, but hopefully cut down on on the money paid out as well.

Reply #4

LANTERN — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 20:15:56 GMT

I think that if a system works for 3 to 4 months then it just works.

As to playing straight, it is no wore than playing boxed, but to win you might have to play very many more numbers, maybe from 3 to 6 times as many.

Reply #3

kellmellus55 — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 12:59:05 GMT

Thanks Badger and Redtag I wish i had a system go 6 weeks but your both right it will take many months of testing and differant years.I will also have to look for hot stages + cold stages, and consistently over all.

I am glad some people out there is having success in developing worth while systems.Hmmm......I guess it all just take time like everything you do in life,in order for you to find something that works.

I'll keep on working on my 8 wheel for the 3 digit, someday i will perfec... [ More ]

Reply #2

Badger — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 11:38:33 GMT

Rather than setting a certain number of weeks back, you may perhaps consider a different approach to backtesting.

What I do is check back 1 month, and if that looks acceptable, I go back random numbers of months...for instance I may just pick a month from last year, or two (not necessarily consecutive months) and the same for the previous year as well. This seems to give a better gauge than just the games current state, which can be deceiving.

Also, understand that there are things that... [ More ]

Reply #1

redtag — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 10:46:10 GMT

Rember that systems go in to hot stages and cold stages.

Weather or not the system is real... the question is... does it work consistly?

You will be able to tell by back testing until you find where it did not work.

If you back test and it keeps on hitting and does not fail... then I would say you are on to big winnigs.

By back testing ...this gives you a true foundation of how well the system really works.

I have gone for 6 weeks...before the numbers just went cold.

hope this

how many weeks should i back check to know if my system is for real?

kellmellus55 — Mon, 12 Mar 2007 09:57:29 GMT

When ever i get a system i back check to see how long it goes before it fails.(99%)Most systems fail in 2 to 3 weeks of back checking.

Now if i were to find a system that would makes a profit week after week let's say for 4-5 weeks would you consider that system be for real or would i have to back check further?how many weeks or months?

Since i never have had a real system work long enough i need a gauge of back testing weeks to know if i am going in the right direction ?

What was the... [ More ]