Clarkston,MI United States
Member #35,081
March 12, 2006
624 Posts
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When ever i get a system i back check to see how long it goes before it fails.(99%)Most systems fail in 2 to 3 weeks of back checking.
Now if i were to find a system that would makes a profit week after week let's say for 4-5 weeks would you consider that system be for real or would i have to back check further?how many weeks or months?
Since i never have had a real system work long enough i need a gauge of back testing weeks to know if i am going in the right direction ?
What was the longest time someone had a system work before it failed?
I have gone 3 weeks(paper+pencil) than i lost more times than i won(84#boxed ea draw) on the 4th week.Trying for straight numbers is a losing game.
Try to list 5 straight numbers per game, need to zero in on the winning tickets.
If you can hit a straight with in 5 picks that would impress me with your system.
Wisconsin United States
Member #1,303
March 27, 2003
1,508 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by kellmellus55 on Mar 12, 2007
When ever i get a system i back check to see how long it goes before it fails.(99%)Most systems fail in 2 to 3 weeks of back checking.
Now if i were to find a system that would makes a profit week after week let's say for 4-5 weeks would you consider that system be for real or would i have to back check further?how many weeks or months?
Since i never have had a real system work long enough i need a gauge of back testing weeks to know if i am going in the right direction ?
What was the longest time someone had a system work before it failed?
I have gone 3 weeks(paper+pencil) than i lost more times than i won(84#boxed ea draw) on the 4th week.Trying for straight numbers is a losing game.
Rather than setting a certain number of weeks back, you may perhaps consider a different approach to backtesting.
What I do is check back 1 month, and if that looks acceptable, I go back random numbers of months...for instance I may just pick a month from last year, or two (not necessarily consecutive months) and the same for the previous year as well. This seems to give a better gauge than just the games "current" state, which can be deceiving.
Also, understand that there are things that make the game "change", but that also means it can "change back" ---- IOW, any system can have a "cold month" where you don't like the results. But if overall, you test for several random, none-consecutive months, and the overall results are satisfactory to you, then it would perhaps be worth pursuing in reality.
Part of the most difficult part of any system, IMHO, seems to be knowing when to stop playing your chosen combinations, and "gear up" again with the system. Depending upon your system, you have to look for telltale signs that your combinations are not going to hit within a few days, based upon what is drawn. For instance (just one instance) if your system includes 239, and they draw any form of 739, I have observed that since one of the digits drawn was a mirror of the combo I was chasing, it is probably a good idea to stop playing those combos and do your workout again, based upon the 739, because the 239 is not likely to be drawn within a few days, and the system is only going to be "close" but no cigar.
You know that any system is not always going to produce a hit within a reasonable time. So knowing when to stop chasing a losing cause can help a great deal in stopping wasted wagers.
Clarkston,MI United States
Member #35,081
March 12, 2006
624 Posts
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Thanks Badger and Redtag I wish i had a system go 6 weeks but your both right it will take many months of testing and differant years.I will also have to look for hot stages + cold stages, and consistently over all.
I am glad some people out there is having success in developing worth while systems.Hmmm......I guess it all just take time like everything you do in life,in order for you to find something that works.
I'll keep on working on my 8 wheel for the 3 digit, someday i will perfect it.
Try to list 5 straight numbers per game, need to zero in on the winning tickets.
If you can hit a straight with in 5 picks that would impress me with your system.
United States
Member #41,382
June 16, 2006
1,969 Posts
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Keep in mind the data is only relative from the date you start compiling it, ie If you decide you want to go back 50 games, that's fine, but there may be MUCH different info that would massively skew the results if you went back 60 games, let alone 100 or more games.
mid-Ohio United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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How much you can depend on back testing may depend on whether your system is dynamic or static and the odds of the game you're testing. Simulating conditions of pass drawings can be tricky and knowing what the results were can cause you to simulate success.
I prefer to backup my back testing with some forward testing, that is once I think a system is showing some promise I'll use it to make a few predictions and if it continues to be successful then I have some confidence in it.
Since I test systems for jackpot or pick games, I measure success differently than one might for pick3/4 games. For me success is having all the winning numbers in a small pool of numbers, the smaller the better.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
