Quik Pic observations from a new LP member...

Reply #18

Guru101 — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 20:36:24 GMT

There is no favoring. For this drawing, there were more plays that covered a lot more of all the possible combinations. If the drawing of the balls was started a split second later, he might not have won anything at all and someone else might have won or it would have rolled. The lottery machine didn't decide to make him the winner. He won because his numbers came up out of all the millions and millions of people who played and got lucky. That's all. What if he decided to go over to the next ais... [ More ]

Reply #17

Coin Toss — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 13:47:10 GMT

KY Floyd

The 12-15 hits a year figure came off of one of the jackpot game websites, I think it was the Powerball site.

I don't really have a problem with probabilities, it just gets to me when anyone thinks that probabilities not only tell us what should happen but when it will happen.

Reply #16

KY Floyd — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 06:41:04 GMT

The possibility that a state's RNG might duplicate combinations could explain multiple winners of a particular drawing both (or all) being in that state. MM doesn't make the info readily available, but for PB none of the 7 multiple winners since 1/1/2004 have been in the same state.

The only two ways a state's RNG could explain a state having more winners than other states are the RNG spitting out more numbers for more tickets or if the RNG somehow knew what the winning combination would... [ More ]

Reply #15

KY Floyd — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 06:31:49 GMT

How the RNG gets the seed may be neutral, but if it does come from the time of day, previously played numbers or similar things then that *is* how the winning combination popped out when the Ed Nabors bought the ticket. If the guy in front of him had bought one more ticket or played different numbers, or if the clerk had punched the button just a second later, the ticket would have had different numbers. Yes, it's a matter of luck that everything aligned in such a way that his ticket got the ri... [ More ]

Reply #14

KY Floyd — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 06:24:12 GMT

I'll probably argue with Coin Toss forever about some aspects of probability, but I'm guessing his reference to the 12 to 15 winners per year is an astute reference to what actual results and probability tell us about the distribution of combinations among the 70% of tickets that are QP's.

First, is it possible that out of 300 tickets, there could be 12 repeated combinations as a result of pure randomness? Sure. It's extremely unlikely, but extremely unlikely things happen all the time. Shu... [ More ]

Reply #13

Coin Toss — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 04:16:30 GMT

There sure are a lot of graduates of Maven U. posting here lately-

Maven U.

Our motto is Opinion Over Knowledge!

In the spirit of one ounce of fact is worth 100 pounds of conjecture, let's do this:

You can go to the Mega Millions website and sign up for E-mail alerts . That will get you a detailed list of winners (all spots) for every draw. The jackpot is usually ghit 12 to 15 times a year. Track it and see whatactually hits.

Reply #12

psykomo — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 04:12:07 GMT

WHATttttttt........UUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun.....>>>>>bout???

RRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrUUuuuuuuuusquial about?????????????squillllaLLL

LPPOST>>>>>>>>>toesteSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSLADDDDDDDDDD ....

U >>>>>>>>>>>>>....................rrrrrrrrrrrrrstill the besttttttttttttt

Reply #11

Guru101 — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 03:53:26 GMT

I know previous plays affect the next plays because that's how RNGs work. My arguement though is that is has neither a positive nor negative affect on those plays because, again, the luck is in the draw. That truck driver won because he was lucky. Nothing more, nothing less. The game sold millions and millions of tickets for that drawing, and someone was most likely to win. It just so happened to be the truck driver's numbers that came up.

Reply #10

letitride$ — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 22:23:46 GMT

That is what was CLAIMED. If any truth exists to it, one would have seriously doubt QPs. My experience has not born this sort of thing out, and the fact that the March 6 MM draw only produced 2 winning duplicates NATIONWIDE bears this out. To be fair, like 40+ tickets nationwide matched 5 WBs, but that was statistically in line with expectations given the million per minute cliprate being purchased in some locales!

Actually, Guru, if I understand the algorythyms, the previous players DO... [ More ]

Reply #9

x1kosmic — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 21:31:04 GMT

I don't think I can change it......mabey I better let that die down for now.

Reply #8

Guru101 — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 21:22:54 GMT

Um, first, whoever said they got 12 exact duplicates with QPs is full of it. I agree with letitride$. If someone believes that the Georgia man won because previous plays helped him win by changing the RNG somehow, that person seriously needs help. Remember: The luck is in the DRAW!!!!! People get their numbers before the draw, not after.

Reply #7

x1kosmic — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 21:00:08 GMT

Not exactly..... when I go to the store, I do the best of both worlds.

I'll pick a few numbers and Quick-pick ....in the same play.

And depending on what I'm thinking, I'm just getting it to 'follow' me. because I'll have my playslips lined up in a certain order, and ask the clerk to play them from back to front.. (or something).

I'm just trying to get a certain 'kind of play' on my tickets. You have to experiment with your terminals.... some follow ...some don't.

I'll go to ano... [ More ]

Reply #6

letitride$ — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:53:00 GMT

I would have assumed a greater equality of RNGs used, and same systems and methods, if electronic. I guess not. Do you mean, when saying some states have moe winners than others, that this goes for multi state games like Powerball? How would that affect the odds, since the DRAW is not related to what the terminal picks, it is random itself and independent. I do not understand your statement. Why would one RNG method produce more winners if the DRAWS are separate actions and are truly random even... [ More ]

Reply #5

letitride$ — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:45:58 GMT

MADDOG10, also am big fan of yours, thanx for the welcome. :)

It is NOT having the same number picked in ONE STATE even twice, or even more than that, that s stunning, since its it the number of picks being selected, like in the March 6 frenzy, that would determine that, and if all the activity or mst of it was in a given area, it could happen. What were are talking about here is only 300 selections with multiple 5 ball repeats and like 12 exact copies, from different stores i nthe same area,... [ More ]

Reply #4

Raven62 — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:39:13 GMT

Each State has its own RNG: I guess that might explain why some States seem to have more Winners than others.

Reply #3

letitride$ — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:34:18 GMT

So what you are saying is, if other pickers have the same tendencies, is that you will seed it falsely, or try to, before Joe Schmoe, (in other words maybe someone like moi) uses it, to prevent sharing jackpots or them benefitting from your chosen numbers if they turn out to be well founded in the draw?

What happens if you do that and it HELPS the other person out to win it, despite that not being your original intent? Obviously, most doing so would never know for sure.

Consider the GA tru... [ More ]

Reply #2

MADDOG10 — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:25:18 GMT

This has been tossed around for a while. If you do a search, you'll find everyone has their own theory. I personally don't think it matters one way or the other. Each state has their own generator, and it would be very possible to come up with some numbers that are duplicate, but I've never heard of (12) tickets coming up with the same identical numbers in the same state. Not saying it could'nt happen just highly unlikely.

By the way, Welcome to LP...Enjoy the experience

Reply #1

x1kosmic — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 20:06:16 GMT

I think it's o.k., if I say welcome to Lottery Post since I recently got bumped up to Rookie.

Uuummmm... of all the crazy little things I do, like go to the store, and try to 'trick the computer' (manipulate the dummy terminal),.....or seed it, like you said....

I'm a little ify- ify, also on how they could have (did you say 30 something) exact duplicates.

My bad.... 12 ....even thats kinda high for 300 picks.

I'm not sure though, 'cause you said they got burned, and why lie... [ More ]

Quik Pic observations from a new LP member...

letitride$ — Fri, 23 Mar 2007 18:17:35 GMT

Hi all, I have lurked here for a while, and decided to get a membership and post! I hope you all will welcome me in my first attempt! :)

Regards QPS, I once saw a thread that made one seriously doubt use of them. A poster said his/her coworkers bought 300 USD worth of tickets I think for Powerball. I ssume the same types of algorythyms are used in this game as for Mega Millions. They went to different conveinence stores, in the same general county area with several in the group getting a s... [ More ]