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Quik Pic observations from a new LP member...

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Guru101.

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letitride$'s avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
New Member

United States
Member #50990
March 23, 2007
25 Posts
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Posted: March 23, 2007, 2:17 pm - IP Logged

Hi all, I have lurked here for a while, and decided to get a membership and post! I hope you all will welcome me in my first attempt! :)

Regards QPS, I once saw a thread that made one seriously doubt use of them. A poster said his/her coworkers bought 300 USD worth of tickets I think for Powerball. I ssume the same types of algorythyms are used in this game as for Mega Millions. They went to different conveinence stores, in the same general county area with several in the group getting a small batch for the same drawing, IIRC.

Result: Of the 300 picks, something like 32 were duplicated! Like 12 were EXACT duplicates meaning each number AND the PB were identical. Now, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that if this were truly a random number generator in the machine, which supposedly uses the time of purchase, recent numbers picked on that machine, etc. for "seed"  number purposes, we could NOT have that sort of idiocy. No way should even ONE ticket be that close on duplication, because the possible combos are so large it would (or rather should!) take a much greater number of purchases by users to see such duplication. The fact that 12 were carbon copies is outrageous. Recall, when the big Mega Millions win on March 6 happened, one person in GA and a couple in NJ won who probably did not know each other, and I think both used QPs. Only 2 existed nationwide that were exact copies, when tickets were being snarfed up at a clip rate of a million a minute or something in New York! 

IOW, there is simply no way this should have happened to them, even if they went all over town to different locations (even the same store, for that matter) if it is so random numberized, even if they had bought 10,000 USD worth of tickets!

It is often said that since the majority of picks are QPs, most of the winners are QP users on that given draw. Fair enough. Also, with each draw being an independent trial, any pick, in theory, whether preselected OR state machine selected, should be equal odds of winning. Yet I would think this example should make one very leery of using QPs.

Nevertheless, we here members here talk of "clearing out" the numbers of recent past pickers who visited the store when a person is going use their own numbers, by buying a QP on a 5 line playboard, sandwhiching theirs in between, and ending with another QP (presumptively seeded with their own personal picks that were in between, as I said) which aims at preventing contamination of their numbers and preventing the next user from having access to numbers as seeders and supposedly reducing the odds of shared jackpots.

But I have seen 5 line QP playboards with all different, or mostly different numbers, and it really makes me wonder if the above story was true. Obviously, the person seems to have no reason to lie about it-after all, they were supposedly burned by those QPs.

Feedback anyone?

letitride$ 

No Pity!Let it ride, the winner said, just before losing it all...

    x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

    United States
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    December 7, 2006
    1699 Posts
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    Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

    I think it's o.k., if I say welcome to Lottery Post since I recently got bumped up to  Rookie.

    Uuummmm... of all the crazy little things I do, like go to the store, and  try to 'trick the computer' (manipulate the dummy terminal),.....or seed it, like you said....

    I'm a little ify- ify, also on how they could have (did you say 30 something)  exact duplicates.

    My bad.... 12  ....even thats kinda high for 300 picks.

    I'm not sure though, 'cause  you said they got burned, and why lie? 

      MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
      Beautiful Florida
      United States
      Member #5709
      July 18, 2004
      20108 Posts
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      Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

      Hi all, I have lurked here for a while, and decided to get a membership and post! I hope you all will welcome me in my first attempt! :)

      Regards QPS, I once saw a thread that made one seriously doubt use of them. A poster said his/her coworkers bought 300 USD worth of tickets I think for Powerball. I ssume the same types of algorythyms are used in this game as for Mega Millions. They went to different conveinence stores, in the same general county area with several in the group getting a small batch for the same drawing, IIRC.

      Result: Of the 300 picks, something like 32 were duplicated! Like 12 were EXACT duplicates meaning each number AND the PB were identical. Now, it does not take a rocket scientist to see that if this were truly a random number generator in the machine, which supposedly uses the time of purchase, recent numbers picked on that machine, etc. for "seed"  number purposes, we could NOT have that sort of idiocy. No way should even ONE ticket be that close on duplication, because the possible combos are so large it would (or rather should!) take a much greater number of purchases by users to see such duplication. The fact that 12 were carbon copies is outrageous. Recall, when the big Mega Millions win on March 6 happened, one person in GA and a couple in NJ won who probably did not know each other, and I think both used QPs. Only 2 existed nationwide that were exact copies, when tickets were being snarfed up at a clip rate of a million a minute or something in New York! 

      IOW, there is simply no way this should have happened to them, even if they went all over town to different locations (even the same store, for that matter) if it is so random numberized, even if they had bought 10,000 USD worth of tickets!

      It is often said that since the majority of picks are QPs, most of the winners are QP users on that given draw. Fair enough. Also, with each draw being an independent trial, any pick, in theory, whether preselected OR state machine selected, should be equal odds of winning. Yet I would think this example should make one very leery of using QPs.

      Nevertheless, we here members here talk of "clearing out" the numbers of recent past pickers who visited the store when a person is going use their own numbers, by buying a QP on a 5 line playboard, sandwhiching theirs in between, and ending with another QP (presumptively seeded with their own personal picks that were in between, as I said) which aims at preventing contamination of their numbers and preventing the next user from having access to numbers as seeders and supposedly reducing the odds of shared jackpots.

      But I have seen 5 line QP playboards with all different, or mostly different numbers, and it really makes me wonder if the above story was true. Obviously, the person seems to have no reason to lie about it-after all, they were supposedly burned by those QPs.

      Feedback anyone?

      letitride$ 

      This has been tossed around for a while. If you do a search, you'll find everyone has their own theory. I personally don't think it matters one way or the other. Each state has their own generator, and it would be very possible to come up with some numbers that are duplicate, but I've never heard of (12) tickets coming up with the same identical numbers in the same state. Not saying it could'nt happen just highly unlikely.

      By the way, Welcome to LP...Enjoy the experience 

                                                   

                                                     "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

        letitride$'s avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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        Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:34 pm - IP Logged

        I think it's o.k., if I say welcome to Lottery Post since I recently got bumped up to  Rookie.

        Uuummmm... of all the crazy little things I do, like go to the store, and  try to 'trick the computer' (manipulate the dummy terminal),.....or seed it, like you said....

        I'm a little ify- ify, also on how they could have (did you say 30 something)  exact duplicates.

        My bad.... 12  ....even thats kinda high for 300 picks.

        I'm not sure though, 'cause  you said they got burned, and why lie? 

        So what you are saying is, if other pickers have the same tendencies, is that you will seed it falsely, or try to, before Joe Schmoe, (in other words maybe someone like moi) uses it, to prevent sharing jackpots or them benefitting from your chosen numbers if they turn out to be well founded in the draw?

        What happens if you do that and it HELPS the other person out to win it, despite that not being your original intent? Obviously, most doing so would never know for sure.

        Consider the GA trucker, who 5 buck QPd.

        He went at lunch, but in the preceeding minutes and hours before he bought em, others either by design of inputting picks to throw others off or accident, influenced HIS getting the winners, because we know the seeding algorythyms have their role.

        Talk about being destined to win! LOL.

        As for your comment that the repeats are KINDA high for 300 picks as a base number, you are way off. It is outrageous. One could logically expect literally no duplicates, even if thousands were printed, but a mere 300? I smell a lawsuit, or there should be one... 

        Still, I do not see a reason to lie about something like that and for what gain. The story seriously should make one wonder about use of terminal numbers picked for the customer! 

        No Pity!Let it ride, the winner said, just before losing it all...

          Raven62's avatar - binary
          New Jersey
          United States
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          June 28, 2005
          49642 Posts
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          Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:39 pm - IP Logged

          This has been tossed around for a while. If you do a search, you'll find everyone has their own theory. I personally don't think it matters one way or the other. Each state has their own generator, and it would be very possible to come up with some numbers that are duplicate, but I've never heard of (12) tickets coming up with the same identical numbers in the same state. Not saying it could'nt happen just highly unlikely.

          By the way, Welcome to LP...Enjoy the experience 

          Each State has its own RNG: I guess that might explain why some States seem to have more Winners than others.

          A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

            letitride$'s avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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            March 23, 2007
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            Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:45 pm - IP Logged

            This has been tossed around for a while. If you do a search, you'll find everyone has their own theory. I personally don't think it matters one way or the other. Each state has their own generator, and it would be very possible to come up with some numbers that are duplicate, but I've never heard of (12) tickets coming up with the same identical numbers in the same state. Not saying it could'nt happen just highly unlikely.

            By the way, Welcome to LP...Enjoy the experience 

            MADDOG10, also am big fan of yours, thanx for the welcome. :)

            It is NOT having the same number picked in ONE STATE even twice, or even more than that, that s stunning, since its it the number of picks being selected, like in the March 6 frenzy, that would determine that, and if all the activity or mst of it was in a given area, it could happen. What were are talking about here is only 300 selections with multiple 5 ball repeats and like 12 exact copies, from different stores i nthe same area, for a draw, the 12 even sharing the same Powerball! Even if the group at work in question bought 10,000 tickets, they should have no repeats on that level, certainly not 12 exact matches! It took tons of action just to burst the March 6 MM jackpot, and only 2 winners who probably did not know each other, using QPs. won in different states. In Texas, one man matched the 5 WBs and missed the MB probably using QPS. But again, that is alot of total activity, meaning alot of number selections bein made nationwide, so duplications are possible, to an extent. Clearly, that was not the case in the 300 buck case, no? Given that only 2 winners surfaced March 6, if the 300 buck case is or was common for QPs, I imagine alot moe jackpots would have had multiple winners than is currently the norm, so I expect a malfunction in the terminal system there in that state or area county rather than an indictment of QPs in general... 

            No Pity!Let it ride, the winner said, just before losing it all...

              letitride$'s avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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              Posted: March 23, 2007, 4:53 pm - IP Logged

              Each State has its own RNG: I guess that might explain why some States seem to have more Winners than others.

              I would have assumed a greater equality of RNGs used, and same systems and methods, if electronic. I guess not. Do you mean, when saying some states have moe winners than others, that this goes for multi state games like Powerball? How would that affect the odds, since the DRAW is not related to what the terminal picks, it is random itself and independent. I do not understand your statement. Why would one RNG method produce more winners if the DRAWS are separate actions and are truly random events, with balls drawn flying in the air and dropped in a chute exit? Wait, do you mean some states have more people SHARING a given win, because the RNG is less random than some would like to believe, so more Quick Pickers are getting duplicates, and then it luckily matches, and so there are moe of them than in some other locales?

              No Pity!Let it ride, the winner said, just before losing it all...

                x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                Posted: March 23, 2007, 5:00 pm - IP Logged

                Not exactly.....  when I go to the store, I do the best of both worlds.

                I'll pick a few numbers and Quick-pick ....in the same play.

                And depending on what I'm thinking,  I'm just getting it to 'follow' me. because I'll have my playslips lined up in a certain order, and ask the clerk to play them from back to front.. (or something).

                I'm just trying to get a certain 'kind of play' on my tickets.  You have to experiment with your terminals.... some follow ...some don't.

                I'll go to another store that won't follow, if I want a more random deal..... kinda like.

                UUummm... as far as Joe Shmo behind me..... if my play helps him win....... I mean,....more power to him-her.   

                  Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                  Indiana
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                  Posted: March 23, 2007, 5:22 pm - IP Logged

                  Um, first, whoever said they got 12 exact duplicates with QPs is full of it. I agree with letitride$. If someone believes that the Georgia man won because previous plays helped him win by changing the RNG somehow, that person seriously needs help. Remember: The luck is in the DRAW!!!!! People get their numbers before the draw, not after.

                  Gonna win.Big Smile

                    x1kosmic's avatar - neptune vg2.gif

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                    Posted: March 23, 2007, 5:31 pm - IP Logged

                    I don't think I can change it......mabey I better let that die down for now.

                      letitride$'s avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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                      Posted: March 23, 2007, 6:23 pm - IP Logged

                      That is what was CLAIMED. If any truth exists to it, one would have seriously doubt QPs. My experience has not born this sort of thing out, and the fact that the March 6 MM draw only produced 2 winning duplicates NATIONWIDE bears this out.  To be fair, like 40+ tickets nationwide matched 5 WBs, but that was statistically in line with expectations given the million per minute cliprate being purchased in some locales!

                       

                      Actually, Guru, if I understand the algorythyms, the previous players DO have an impact on the possible future picker than gets lucky and wins, because that activity is "seeder" fodder for near future later activity on that terminal. This, together with time of purchase, factors in, but nobody would know than when they walked in, and mega luck still has to exist in the draw. And of course it is true the draw is separate independent trial event, and has no relation to the earlier activity of number selection, but there is an impact factor possible, apparently, but obviously not predictable and thus not exploitable by a player/ticket buyer, like the GA trucker in question, whose QP was "made" in part by previous pickers that morning preceeding him... 

                      No Pity!Let it ride, the winner said, just before losing it all...

                        Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                        Indiana
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                        Posted: March 23, 2007, 11:53 pm - IP Logged

                        That is what was CLAIMED. If any truth exists to it, one would have seriously doubt QPs. My experience has not born this sort of thing out, and the fact that the March 6 MM draw only produced 2 winning duplicates NATIONWIDE bears this out.  To be fair, like 40+ tickets nationwide matched 5 WBs, but that was statistically in line with expectations given the million per minute cliprate being purchased in some locales!

                         

                        Actually, Guru, if I understand the algorythyms, the previous players DO have an impact on the possible future picker than gets lucky and wins, because that activity is "seeder" fodder for near future later activity on that terminal. This, together with time of purchase, factors in, but nobody would know than when they walked in, and mega luck still has to exist in the draw. And of course it is true the draw is separate independent trial event, and has no relation to the earlier activity of number selection, but there is an impact factor possible, apparently, but obviously not predictable and thus not exploitable by a player/ticket buyer, like the GA trucker in question, whose QP was "made" in part by previous pickers that morning preceeding him... 

                        I know previous plays affect the next plays because that's how RNGs work. My arguement though is that is has neither a positive nor negative affect on those plays because, again, the luck is in the draw. That truck driver won because he was lucky. Nothing more, nothing less. The game sold millions and millions of tickets for that drawing, and someone was most likely to win. It just so happened to be the truck driver's numbers that came up.

                        Gonna win.Big Smile

                          psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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                          Posted: March 24, 2007, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                          I think it's o.k., if I say welcome to Lottery Post since I recently got bumped up to  Rookie.

                          Uuummmm... of all the crazy little things I do, like go to the store, and  try to 'trick the computer' (manipulate the dummy terminal),.....or seed it, like you said....

                          I'm a little ify- ify, also on how they could have (did you say 30 something)  exact duplicates.

                          My bad.... 12  ....even thats kinda high for 300 picks.

                          I'm not sure though, 'cause  you said they got burned, and why lie? 

                          WHATttttttt........UUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun.....>>>>>bout???

                          RRRRRRRRRrrrrrrrUUuuuuuuuusquial about?????????????squillllaLLL

                          LPPOST>>>>>>>>>toesteSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSLADDDDDDDDDD ....

                          U >>>>>>>>>>>>>....................rrrrrrrrrrrrrstill the besttttttttttttt!! 

                            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                            Posted: March 24, 2007, 12:16 am - IP Logged

                            There sure are a lot of graduates of Maven U. posting here lately-

                            Maven U.

                            Our motto is Opinion Over Knowledge! 

                            Green laugh

                            In the spirit of one ounce of fact is worth 100 pounds of conjecture, let's do this:

                            You can go to the Mega Millions website and sign up for "E-mail alerts". That will get you a detailed list of winners (all spots) for every draw. The jackpot is usually ghit 12 to 15 times a year. Track it and see whatactually hits.

                            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                            Lep

                            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                              Avatar
                              NY
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                              Posted: March 24, 2007, 2:24 am - IP Logged

                              I'll probably argue with Coin Toss forever about some aspects of probability, but I'm guessing his reference to the 12 to 15 winners per year is an astute reference to what actual results and probability tell us about the distribution of combinations among the 70% of tickets that are QP's.

                              First, is it possible that out of 300 tickets, there could be 12  repeated combinations as a result of pure randomness? Sure.  It's extremely unlikely, but extremely unlikely things happen all the time. Shuffle a deck of cards and deal out all 52. Whatever order you got had roughly the same odds as getting 12 repeats in 300 random tickets. That said, whoever made this claim is either completely full of it or witness to one of the most unlikely demonstrations of probability ever.

                              Either way, whatever happened with their 300 tickets is irrelevant. If it was one of those extremely unlikely things that just happen it  doesn't mean the results are what we can expect for QP's in general, and if it's BS then it also has nothing to do with what happens.  As Coin Toss said, PB and MM each typically have 12 to 15 winners per year. About 70% of them  are QP's. About 15% of the time there are multiple winners, usually for large jackpots that sold a lot of tickets. If QP's were unusually likely to result in repeated combinations we would see the jackpot being won less often (because more repeated combinations also means more unplayed combinations), but with more multiple winners. What we actually se is results that are consistent with  the number of tickets sold and the percentage that are QP's.

                              Lately there have been a lot of anecdotes about  QP's where individual numbers are repeated on multiple lines. If that's actually a common occurrence I'm guessing that the RNG's work pefectly well, but instead of generating random numbers for each line they're generating a larger set of random numbers for each ticket and then wheeling them on the multiple lines. That would be the result of a management decision and not a bad RNG. Where one line has some numbers that are close together (such as 11,13, 24, 35,and 47), we should expect that  to be a common occurrence from random numbers. So far I haven't seen any real evidence that QP's don't result in combinations that are truly random.