I need someone to calculate the odds of this happening

Reply #14

KY Floyd — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 07:26:44 GMT

Actually, I do drop in here fairly often. I just don't comment all that often, since most of the stuff I find is only tangentially about math. I don't do any complicated math in Excel, so at least 50% of what I see is irrelevant right off the bat.

Reply #13

KY Floyd — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 07:23:35 GMT

Suppose you won tonight? I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't think your odds of winning again tomorrow night are 1 in 1 million, so (as I clearly noted) it depends on whether we're talking about somebody who hasn't won or somebody who has already won. If you've already won and you buy a single ticket for the next drawing the chances that you will become one of the people who won twice in a row are 1 in 1000. You may think the odds of that first win are 1 in 1000, but that's just as incorrect as th... [ More ]

Reply #12

Todd — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 17:19:42 GMT

Actually, hitting a straight twice in a row IS 1 in 1,000,000.

This thread was about the odds of having two successive quick picks be the same number. The reason it is 1 in 1,000 is that no matter what the first number is, there are no odds associated with it.

HOWEVER, in the case of WINNING twice in a row, there ARE odds associated with the first win. Those odds are 1 in 1,000. Winning on the second day is also 1 in 1,000. The odds of hitting both drawings in a row is therefore 1 in 1,000... [ More ]

Reply #11

WIN D — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:55:57 GMT

Clean, clear explanation KY Floyd. Thanks

How about dropping in on the Math forum more often ? We need a lifeguard over there. LOL

Reply #10

Raven62 — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 16:20:13 GMT

Even after reading your eloquent explicative: It still sounds like a Million-To-One Shot! LOL

Reply #9

RJOh — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 14:57:55 GMT

After experimenting with that loop, I added a N3 which shows the frequency of someone likely winning twice along with the frequency of a number coming up twice.

I was reading an article about this and the writer points out that folks might confuse the odds of them winning twice with the odds of someone winning twice. He points out that new stories about someone winning a lottery twice usually quote the odds of it happening to a particular individual which might lead some to think it happens

Reply #8

jmr99vet — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 12:11:51 GMT

THANKS everyone for the input. Just thought it was odd 2 qp's with the same number. As someone pointed out 334 hit a couple of days ago, and did not hit yesterday. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD.

Reply #7

KY Floyd — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 06:32:10 GMT

Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening the answer really depends on whether y... [ More ]

Reply #6

four4me — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 04:28:13 GMT

That number just came out in Maryland on 7/16/2009 ---- 334

I don't like quick picks cause i rarely hear of anyone winning with them. I might have kept one of the tickets with 334 and asked for a different ticket as a replacement for the other 334 ticket. They can cancel pick 3 and 4 tickets.

Reply #5

pianist — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 04:10:16 GMT

DO any one remember the formula for pick- four with the use of a calculator? I think You have to multiply3.88

Reply #4

RJOh — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 03:11:24 GMT

Thanks for your explanation. While off line I wrote a loop in GWBasic that proves you were right.

10 CLS:RANDOMIZE TIMER

20 N2=N:T=T+1:N=INT(RND*1000)+1

30 LOCATE 5,10:PRINT T; = ;N; ;N2; ;T2;

40 IF N=N2 THEN T2=T2+1

50 GOTO 20

Reply #3

Todd — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 01:50:59 GMT

No, not true in this case.

If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

Reply #2

RJOh — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 00:02:01 GMT

Todd,

I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000). Why wouldn't it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

RJOh

Reply #1

Todd — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:37:46 GMT

1 in 1000.

The first QP was some number . Then, there is a 1-in-1000 chance that the second QP will be identical to the first.

I need someone to calculate the odds of this happening

jmr99vet — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 23:12:58 GMT

Have been a premium member for a year and just re upped . I have learned a lot in the past year from this site. Today I could not come up with some 3 digit numbers but wanted some action. I went to the store and told the clerk to give me 2 quick picks dollar straight. I looked at the 2 tickets and both had 334. I thought the clerk made a mistake. HOWEVER in Maryland the computer generated quickpicks have a QP on the tickets. My quesiton is what are the odds of having the computer pick the SAME n... [ More ]