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I need someone to calculate the odds of this happening

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 7 years ago by KY Floyd.

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MD
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Posted: July 19, 2009, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

Have been a premium member for a year and just "re upped". I have learned a lot in the past year from this site. Today I could not come up with some 3 digit numbers but wanted some action. I went to the store and told the clerk to give me 2 "quick picks" dollar straight. I looked at the 2 tickets and both had 334. I thought the clerk made a mistake. HOWEVER in Maryland the computer generated "quickpicks" have a QP on the tickets. My quesiton is what are the odds of having the computer pick the SAME number 2 times in a row? I took statistics 101 MANY years ago.  I do know that it will be a big number. THANKS

PS this is my first post in a little over a year. STAY IN THE BACKGROUND AND LEARN

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
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    Posted: July 19, 2009, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

    1 in 1000.

    The first QP was "some number".  Then, there is a 1-in-1000 chance that the second QP will be identical to the first.

     

    Check the State Lottery Report Card
    What grade did your lottery earn?

     

    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: July 19, 2009, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

      Todd,

      I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000).  Why wouldn't  it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

      RJOh

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
        Chief Bottle Washer
        New Jersey
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        Posted: July 19, 2009, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

        Todd,

        I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000).  Why wouldn't  it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

        RJOh

        No, not true in this case.

        If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

        The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

         

        Check the State Lottery Report Card
        What grade did your lottery earn?

         

        Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
        Help eliminate computerized drawings!

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: July 19, 2009, 11:11 pm - IP Logged

          No, not true in this case.

          If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

          The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

          Thanks for your explanation.  While off line I wrote a loop in GWBasic that proves you were right.

          10 CLS:RANDOMIZE TIMER
          20 N2=N:T=T+1:N=INT(RND*1000)+1
          30 LOCATE 5,10:PRINT T;"=";N;"  ";N2;"  ";T2;"   "
          40 IF N=N2 THEN T2=T2+1
          50 GOTO 20

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

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            houston,texas
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            Posted: July 20, 2009, 12:10 am - IP Logged

            DO any one remember the formula  for pick- four with the use of a calculator? I think You have to multiply3.88= ?????

              four4me's avatar - gate1
              MD
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              Posted: July 20, 2009, 12:28 am - IP Logged

              Have been a premium member for a year and just "re upped". I have learned a lot in the past year from this site. Today I could not come up with some 3 digit numbers but wanted some action. I went to the store and told the clerk to give me 2 "quick picks" dollar straight. I looked at the 2 tickets and both had 334. I thought the clerk made a mistake. HOWEVER in Maryland the computer generated "quickpicks" have a QP on the tickets. My quesiton is what are the odds of having the computer pick the SAME number 2 times in a row? I took statistics 101 MANY years ago.  I do know that it will be a big number. THANKS

              PS this is my first post in a little over a year. STAY IN THE BACKGROUND AND LEARN

              That number just came out in Maryland on 7/16/2009 ---- 334

              I don't like quick picks cause i rarely hear of anyone winning with them. I might have kept one of the tickets with 334 and asked for a different ticket as a replacement for the other 334 ticket. They can cancel pick 3 and 4 tickets.

              Big John says. You don't hit the number. The number hits you!!!!

                             I'm not Big John, I'm Four4me, Big John's a friend.
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                NY
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                Posted: July 20, 2009, 2:32 am - IP Logged

                Todd,

                I've seen the odds of winning a lottery twice in a row and that is always the odds of winning it once squared (1:1000 x 1:1000 or 1:1000000).  Why wouldn't  it be same for a random number generated twice in a row?

                RJOh

                Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening  the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

                FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket  at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if  the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.

                  jmr99vet's avatar - Lottery-049.jpg
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                  Posted: July 20, 2009, 8:11 am - IP Logged

                  THANKS everyone for the input. Just thought it was odd 2 qp's with the same number. As someone pointed out 334 hit a couple of days ago, and did not hit yesterday. BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD.

                    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                    mid-Ohio
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                    Posted: July 20, 2009, 10:57 am - IP Logged

                    Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening  the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

                    FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket  at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if  the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.

                    After experimenting with that loop, I added a N3 which shows the frequency of someone likely winning twice along with the frequency of a number coming up twice. 

                    I was reading an article about this and the writer points out that folks might confuse the odds of them winning twice with the odds of someone winning twice.  He points out that new stories about someone winning a lottery twice usually quote the odds of it happening to a particular individual which might lead some to think it happens less than it actually does.

                     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                       
                                 Evil Looking       

                      Raven62's avatar - binary
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                      Posted: July 20, 2009, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

                      No, not true in this case.

                      If you were calcuting the odds of getting one specific number of your choosing twice then sure, you're right. But that's not the case here.

                      The first number can be anything, so there are no odds associated with it. The only odds are of the second number matching the first. Hence 1-in-1000.

                      Even after reading your eloquent explicative: It still sounds like a Million-To-One Shot! LOL!

                      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                        Posted: July 20, 2009, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

                         Clean, clear explanation KY Floyd.  Thanks

                          How about dropping in on the Math forum more often ?   We need a lifeguard over there. LOL

                         

                         

                        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                               Win d    

                          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                          Chief Bottle Washer
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                          Posted: July 20, 2009, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

                          Nobody ever does a story about somebody winning twice until it actually happens, so it is the same. It's just that the people who tell you the odds are 1 in 1,000,000 are wrong, or they're giving the odds for winning twice in a row when you haven't already won once. I generally figure the latter is the wrong answer, but I suppose it depends on the question they're trying to answer. If I were to win twice in a row and you ask about the odds of that happening  the answer really depends on whether you're asking about my odds or yours. I had obviously already won once, so there was a 1 in 1000 chance it would happen again. Assuming you hadn't already won, the chance it would happen to you would be 1 in 1,000,000.

                          FWIW, whenever I've seen those answers offered in a news story there is never any mention that they're based on the assumption that you're only playing one ticket  at a time, and you're only playing two consecutive games and then never playing again. Of course I never know if  the person answering the question did a poor job or if it was the person reporting the answer that did a poor job.

                          Actually, hitting a straight twice in a row IS 1 in 1,000,000.

                          This thread was about the odds of having two successive quick picks be the same number.  The reason it is 1 in 1,000 is that no matter what the first number is, there are no odds associated with it.

                          HOWEVER, in the case of WINNING twice in a row, there ARE odds associated with the first win.  Those odds are 1 in 1,000.  Winning on the second day is also 1 in 1,000.  The odds of hitting both drawings in a row is therefore 1 in 1,000,000.

                          So, to summarize:

                          • The odds of asking for two Pick 3 quick picks and having them be the same number:  1 in 1,000
                          • The odds of hitting (winning) Pick 3 straight two days in a row, assuming that only one ticket is played each drawing:  1 in 1,000,000

                           

                          Check the State Lottery Report Card
                          What grade did your lottery earn?

                           

                          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

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                            Posted: July 21, 2009, 3:23 am - IP Logged

                            Suppose you won tonight?  I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't think your odds of winning again tomorrow night are 1 in 1 million, so (as I clearly noted) it depends on whether we're talking about somebody who hasn't won or somebody who has already won. If you've already won and you buy a single ticket for the next drawing the chances that you will  become one of the people who won twice in a row are 1 in 1000. You may think the odds of that first win are 1 in 1000, but that's just as incorrect as thinking that the odds for the first occurrence of a repeated number are 1 in 1000. Your chance of winning may be 1 in 1000, but for any given game there are far more than 1000 tickets sold and having at least one winner is a (virtual) certainty. That means that for any given drawing there are a number of people with a 1 in 1000 chance of winning twice in a row.  Just as the first QP has to have some number on it, there will almost certainly be several someones who win in any future drawing. If they lose in t  efollowing drawing it will be completely ignored by news reporters. If one of them wins it won't be very surprising if you consider the odds, but many people will think it's very unlikely and therefore newsworthy.

                            As a real world example, there were 188 straight winners for NY's 7/19 evening  drawing. If each of those winners plays a single number in the next drawing there is an 18.8% chance that one of them will win again. If those numbers are fairly typical I can safely say that the odds of somebody winning tomorow's evening  drawing and the next day's mid-day drawing are in the neighborhood of 1 in 5.

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                              Posted: July 21, 2009, 3:26 am - IP Logged

                               Clean, clear explanation KY Floyd.  Thanks

                                How about dropping in on the Math forum more often ?   We need a lifeguard over there. LOL

                              Actually, I do drop in here fairly often. I just don't comment all that often, since most of the stuff I find is only tangentially about math. I don't do any complicated math in Excel, so at least 50% of what I see is irrelevant right off the bat.