Need some advice

Reply #23

Stack47 — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 13:50:33 GMT

The debate about odds has been going on ever since I joined LP and it's always about comparing odds to chances. If one ticket is bought, there are 15,000 tickets sold, and of those tickets only one is a winner than each ticket has a 1 in 15,000 chance of being drawn. If each ticket costs $100 and the prize is $300,000 then you divide the prize by the cost of the ticket; $300,000/$100=$3000 so the payoff odds are 3000 to 1. Depending how it's expressed, you're equally correct by saying the odds a... [ More ]

Reply #22

Grovel — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 04:56:22 GMT

Now you are no longer making any sense. I am done with this discussion.

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 04:42:13 GMT

If you spend $100 on tickets, will the number of tickets you have be different for games where tickets are $1 each and $100 each

Reply #20

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Reply #19

Jack-C — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 23:17:22 GMT

Reply #18

Grovel — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 23:11:21 GMT

To KY: The odds do not change unless the number of tickets change. If it is a good bet or not, is another issue.

Reply #17

KY Floyd — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:29:27 GMT

I simply made a general observation about odds and the cost of tickets, and a comparison that nobody chose to evaluate, or to respond to. Failing to convince somebody doesn't mean I didn't demonstrate the validity of my point. Stack gave an excellent real world example of why the 1:15,000 odds aren't good odds. Unless they really want to see the charity get the 2/3's that isn't being awarded in prizes, anyone who still thinks that spending $100 on a chance at the house makes sense clearly has no... [ More ]

Reply #16

dk1421 — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 19:50:01 GMT

Don't be a schmuck, always take the cash.

I think I found a new signature file! Thank Coin Toss

Reply #15

Stack47 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:48:17 GMT

If you buy one ticket and all 15,000 tickets are sold then your chances would be 1 out of 15,000. But I think your chances would be better than that because I doubt the seller will even come close to selling that many tickets at a $100 a pop.

I'd be more concerned about the drawing than the odds because it's not being conducted by the state lottery that has experience in withholding taxes. Before I bought a ticket I'd have to know there was an actual drawing date and if that date was continge... [ More ]

Reply #14

phileight — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 09:53:59 GMT

Ky Floyd

in retrospect my first four words could have been be better chosen, maybe a quote around sound. now look at the rest of my post and does it sound as if I thought it would be a good place to put money.

In this case the numeric odds are not very favorable, but for me, even worse, there are too many variables totally controlled by unknown others for me to consider giving them a significant amount of money.

Reply #13

BobP — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 07:34:14 GMT

I'd rather win lotto and buy the house of my dreams then win a house in a raffle that might have any number of issues I wouldn't be able to afford to maintain, repair, insure, property taxes, moving expenses, new furniture, rugs, window teatments and all the other things a new place needs.

The big problem is when they want to sell much more in tickets then the house is worth, whatever their reason. Dilutes the value of the tickets.

Not to say I'm not tempted if everything looked righ... [ More ]

Reply #12

joshuakim — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 00:33:51 GMT

Laugh out loud @ KY.

Always arguing... you must get a kick out trying to disprove everyone's claim. Well this time i believe you've failed.

Reply #11

Jack-C — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 00:24:58 GMT

They did this a couple of times here in San Diego. The tickets cost $150 and the house was worth $1.5 Million.

Reply #10

Jack-C — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 00:23:22 GMT

Reply #9

Jimhowlett — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 00:14:39 GMT

sigh

Now it's reasoning, huh?

As I and Grovel pointed out, 15,000 to 1 odds is 15,000 to 1 odds, regardless of how you twist it.

Not gonna argue with you on this further. I know when I'm right

Thanks for your input though, I guess.

-Jim

Reply #8

Coin Toss — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:49:18 GMT

Jimhowlett,

If you've been watching How the Lottery Changed My Liife, there were two instances of people winning houses. In one, the guy who won opted for the cash instead of the house. He didn;t want to move to another town in a different area, for one thing, and he made out OK.

In the other, a woman on one state, I think it was Colorado, won a house in an Eastern state, took the house, and said if she had it to do again, she'd take cash if offered.

One of the casino I worked in always... [ More ]

Reply #7

Grovel — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:29:36 GMT

Still does not affect the odds.

Reply #6

KY Floyd — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:01:51 GMT

You may be good at math, but you don't seem to be as good at reasoning.

the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds.

If another developer was charging $10 per ticket for 1 in 100,000 odds to win an identical house would you buy chances for the one with 1 in 15,000 oddds or 1 in 100,000 odd? Why

Reply #5

Jimhowlett — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:07:11 GMT

Sorry KY, but I understand math well enough to know that the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds. The odds are 15,000 to 1 regardless of the cost of the ticket (to clarify: 15,000 are being sold, and no more).

The odds of winning the MegaMillions would be 175 million to 1 regardless of how much each ticket costs, whether they are $1 each or $100 each. This is because its based on the number of combinations possible with the current format.

As for t... [ More ]

Reply #4

KY Floyd — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 08:11:05 GMT

The odds sound good.

Maybe if you're not good at math. 1 in 15,000 is better than some lotteries, but the ticket costs 100 times as much as a typical lottery. That makes it comparable to odds of 1.5 million to 1 for a game with $1 tickets. The bigger issue is that the house is only worth about 20% of what they expect to collect, and it's presumably the only prize. Typical lotteries have multiple prizes, and pay about 50% of the money back to the players. When there are other choices, a game... [ More ]

Reply #3

hearsetrax — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:59:03 GMT

and remember to triple check the fine print in regards to the rules

Reply #2

phileight — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:28:59 GMT

The odds sound good. I would have a few questions before putting out any money, like: who is handling the raffle, the charity or the developer? what are the rules, can any member or immediate family member of either organization win? is the house as is, or is it guarnteed to be finished ? Who set the value of the house and would an appraiser agree? does either pary have a history with the BBB? who will supervise the drawing? will it be public?

best of luck to you

p8

Reply #1

vistaguy — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:53:10 GMT

I would do this in a heartbeat....

Need some advice

Jimhowlett — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 14:35:22 GMT

There is a local developer raffling one of their homes away for a charity organization. $100 buys you a ticket, and 15,000 will be sold (thus the odds are 15,000 to 1). The home has an assessed value of about $300,000.

I was thinking of buying a ticket. The problem is I will have to take a mortgage out on the home to the tune of about $100,000 to pay the IRS since gambling winnings are taxed as income.

Still, a $100K mortgage on a $300K home is pretty darn good. I was thinking of taking it... [ More ]