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Need some advice

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Stack47.

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Northern Ohio
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Posted: September 8, 2009, 10:35 am - IP Logged

There is a local developer raffling one of their homes away for a charity organization. $100 buys you a ticket, and 15,000 will be sold (thus the odds are 15,000 to 1). The home has an assessed value of about $300,000.

I was thinking of buying a ticket. The problem is I will have to take a mortgage out on the home to the tune of about $100,000 to pay the IRS since gambling winnings are taxed as income.

Still, a $100K mortgage on a $300K home is pretty darn good. I was thinking of taking it. However, $100 is a lot for me to gamble on; I don't even spend that much in two months on lottery tickets. Should I take $100 for 15,000-1 odds?

I don't own right now and I would love to buy one and build equity, especially one I can make a huge return on considering the value-tax differential

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    Indiana
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    Posted: September 8, 2009, 10:53 am - IP Logged

    I would do this in a heartbeat....

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      Posted: September 8, 2009, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

      The odds sound good.  I would have a few questions before putting out any money, like: who is handling the raffle, the charity or the developer?  what are the rules,  can any member or immediate family member of either organization win?  is the house as is, or is it guarnteed to be finished ?  Who set the value of the house and would an appraiser agree?  does either pary have a history with the BBB?  who will supervise the drawing?  will it be public?

      best of luck to you

      p8

        hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

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        Posted: September 8, 2009, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

        The odds sound good.  I would have a few questions before putting out any money, like: who is handling the raffle, the charity or the developer?  what are the rules,  can any member or immediate family member of either organization win?  is the house as is, or is it guarnteed to be finished ?  Who set the value of the house and would an appraiser agree?  does either pary have a history with the BBB?  who will supervise the drawing?  will it be public?

        best of luck to you

        p8

        I Agree! and remember to triple check the fine print in regards to the rules

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          NY
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          Posted: September 9, 2009, 4:11 am - IP Logged

          "The odds sound good."

          Maybe if you're not good at math. 1 in 15,000 is better than some lotteries, but the ticket costs 100 times as much as a typical lottery. That makes it comparable to odds of 1.5 million to 1 for a game with $1 tickets. The bigger issue is that the house is only worth about 20% of what they expect to collect, and it's presumably the only prize. Typical lotteries have multiple prizes, and pay about 50% of the money back to the players. When there are other choices, a game that only pays back 20% is a sucker bet, no matter how they structure the prizes.

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            Northern Ohio
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            Posted: September 9, 2009, 2:07 pm - IP Logged

            "The odds sound good."

            Maybe if you're not good at math. 1 in 15,000 is better than some lotteries, but the ticket costs 100 times as much as a typical lottery. That makes it comparable to odds of 1.5 million to 1 for a game with $1 tickets. The bigger issue is that the house is only worth about 20% of what they expect to collect, and it's presumably the only prize. Typical lotteries have multiple prizes, and pay about 50% of the money back to the players. When there are other choices, a game that only pays back 20% is a sucker bet, no matter how they structure the prizes.

            Sorry KY, but I understand math well enough to know that the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds. The odds are 15,000 to 1 regardless of the cost of the ticket (to clarify: 15,000 are being sold, and no more).


            The odds of winning the MegaMillions would be 175 million to 1 regardless of how much each ticket costs, whether they are $1 each or $100 each. This is because its based on the number of combinations possible with the current format.


            As for the prizes, $500,000 worth of prizes are being given out and the remaining $1M is being given to charity, in this case the Ronald McDonald House.

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              NY
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              Posted: September 9, 2009, 5:01 pm - IP Logged

              You may be good at math, but you don't seem to be as good at reasoning.

              "the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds."

              If another developer was charging $10 per ticket for 1 in 100,000 odds to win an identical house would you buy chances for the one with 1 in 15,000 oddds or 1 in 100,000 odd? Why?

                Grovel's avatar - f800e6a39fbfea795d1dcbb09f2244
                Little Rock, AR
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                Posted: September 9, 2009, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

                You may be good at math, but you don't seem to be as good at reasoning.

                "the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds."

                If another developer was charging $10 per ticket for 1 in 100,000 odds to win an identical house would you buy chances for the one with 1 in 15,000 oddds or 1 in 100,000 odd? Why?

                Still does not affect the odds.

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: September 9, 2009, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

                  Jimhowlett,

                  If you've been watching How the Lottery Changed My Liife, there were two instances of people winning houses. In one, the guy who won opted for the cash instead of the house. He didn;t want to move to another town in a different area, for one thing, and he made out OK.

                  In the other, a woman on one state, I think it was Colorado, won a house in an Eastern state, took the house, and said if she had it to do again, she'd take cash if offered.

                  One of the casino I worked in always had a car (or cash) as a prize for lining up the right symbols on a slot machine, and out shift manager always told everyone, "Don't be a schmuck, always take the cash."

                  Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                  Lep

                  There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                    Northern Ohio
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                    Posted: September 9, 2009, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

                    You may be good at math, but you don't seem to be as good at reasoning.

                    "the cost of the ticket has no direct bearing whatsoever on the odds."

                    If another developer was charging $10 per ticket for 1 in 100,000 odds to win an identical house would you buy chances for the one with 1 in 15,000 oddds or 1 in 100,000 odd? Why?

                    <sigh>


                    Now it's reasoning, huh?


                    As I and Grovel pointed out, 15,000 to 1 odds is 15,000 to 1 odds, regardless of how you twist it.


                    Not gonna argue with you on this further. I know when I'm right


                    Thanks for your input though, I guess.


                    -Jim

                      Jack-C's avatar - us
                      San Diego, CA
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                      Posted: September 9, 2009, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

                      <sigh>


                      Now it's reasoning, huh?


                      As I and Grovel pointed out, 15,000 to 1 odds is 15,000 to 1 odds, regardless of how you twist it.


                      Not gonna argue with you on this further. I know when I'm right


                      Thanks for your input though, I guess.


                      -Jim

                      I Agree!

                        Jack-C's avatar - us
                        San Diego, CA
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                        Posted: September 9, 2009, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                        They did this a couple of times here in San Diego.  The tickets cost $150 and the house was worth $1.5 Million.

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                          FL
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                          Posted: September 9, 2009, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                          Laugh out loud @ KY.

                           

                          Always arguing... you must get a kick out trying to disprove everyone's claim. Well this time i believe you've failed.

                            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                            Dump Water Florida
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                            Posted: September 10, 2009, 3:34 am - IP Logged

                            I'd rather win lotto and buy the house of my dreams then win a house in a raffle that might have any number of issues I wouldn't be able to afford to maintain, repair, insure, property taxes, moving expenses, new furniture, rugs, window teatments and all the other things a new place needs. 

                            The big problem is when they want to sell much more in tickets then the house is worth, whatever their reason.   Dilutes the value of the tickets.

                            Not to say I'm not tempted if everything looked right and I was sure of the area the house was in would work for me.   Still, it's like buying one Pick-4 ticket and expecting to win only worse again by half.   You'd have to have hundreds laying around you could afford to flush and never miss. 

                            Would have to put $3,200. on it to bring the odds down to 1 in 468.  The next bump would be $6,400 for 1 in 234.  $12,800 for 1 in 117, etc.

                            BobP

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                              Posted: September 10, 2009, 5:53 am - IP Logged

                              "The odds sound good."

                              Maybe if you're not good at math. 1 in 15,000 is better than some lotteries, but the ticket costs 100 times as much as a typical lottery. That makes it comparable to odds of 1.5 million to 1 for a game with $1 tickets. The bigger issue is that the house is only worth about 20% of what they expect to collect, and it's presumably the only prize. Typical lotteries have multiple prizes, and pay about 50% of the money back to the players. When there are other choices, a game that only pays back 20% is a sucker bet, no matter how they structure the prizes.

                              Ky Floyd

                              in retrospect my first four words could have been be better chosen, maybe a quote around sound.  now look at the rest of my post and does it "sound" as if I thought it would be a good place to put  money. 

                              In this case the numeric odds are not very favorable, but for me, even worse, there are too many variables totally controlled by unknown others for me to consider giving them a significant amount of money.