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Need some advice

Topic closed. 23 replies. Last post 7 years ago by Stack47.

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Kentucky
United States
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February 14, 2006
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Posted: September 10, 2009, 11:48 am - IP Logged

<sigh>


Now it's reasoning, huh?


As I and Grovel pointed out, 15,000 to 1 odds is 15,000 to 1 odds, regardless of how you twist it.


Not gonna argue with you on this further. I know when I'm right


Thanks for your input though, I guess.


-Jim

If you buy one ticket and all 15,000 tickets are sold then your chances would be 1 out of 15,000. But I think your chances would be better than that because I doubt the seller will even come close to selling that many tickets at a $100 a pop.

I'd be more concerned about the drawing than the odds because it's not being conducted by the state lottery that has experience in withholding taxes. Before I bought a ticket I'd have to know there was an actual drawing date and if that date was contingent on the number of tickets sold. Will the drawing be held with the same prize if he only sells 2500 tickets and who will be supervising the drawing?

As to the question "is it a good bet?", you have to compare the payoff odds to chances of winning. Betting $100 to win $300,000 gives you payoff odds of about $3000 to $1 in a game where the odds against you winning are 15,000 to 1. In the Pick-4 game we can bet $60 on one straight number to win the same $300,000 and get payoff odds of a little less than $5000 to $1 where the odds against us winning are 10,000 to 1.

We're betting 40% less money in the pick-4 to win the same amount and the odds of us winning are reduced by 33%; which is the better bet?

    dk1421's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    North Carolina
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    September 1, 2008
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    Posted: September 11, 2009, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

    "Don't be a schmuck, always take the cash."

    I think I found a new signature file! Thank Coin Toss!

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      NY
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      Posted: September 11, 2009, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

      Laugh out loud @ KY.

       

      Always arguing... you must get a kick out trying to disprove everyone's claim. Well this time i believe you've failed.

      I simply made a general observation about odds and the cost of tickets, and a comparison that nobody chose to evaluate, or to respond to. Failing to convince somebody doesn't mean I didn't demonstrate the validity of my point. Stack gave an excellent real world example of why the 1:15,000 odds aren't good odds. Unless they really want to see the charity get the 2/3's that isn't being awarded in prizes, anyone who still thinks that spending $100 on a chance at the house makes sense clearly has no ability to understand the odds.

        Grovel's avatar - f800e6a39fbfea795d1dcbb09f2244
        Little Rock, AR
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        December 19, 2008
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        Posted: September 11, 2009, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

        To KY: The odds do not change unless the number of tickets change. If it is a good bet or not,  is another issue.

          Jack-C's avatar - us
          San Diego, CA
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          Posted: September 11, 2009, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

          To KY: The odds do not change unless the number of tickets change. If it is a good bet or not,  is another issue.

          I Agree!

            psykomo's avatar - animal shark.jpg

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            Posted: September 13, 2009, 1:57 am - IP Logged

            There is a local developer raffling one of their homes away for a charity organization. $100 buys you a ticket, and 15,000 will be sold (thus the odds are 15,000 to 1). The home has an assessed value of about $300,000.

            I was thinking of buying a ticket. The problem is I will have to take a mortgage out on the home to the tune of about $100,000 to pay the IRS since gambling winnings are taxed as income.

            Still, a $100K mortgage on a $300K home is pretty darn good. I was thinking of taking it. However, $100 is a lot for me to gamble on; I don't even spend that much in two months on lottery tickets. Should I take $100 for 15,000-1 odds?

            I don't own right now and I would love to buy one and build equity, especially one I can make a huge return on considering the value-tax differential

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            PSYKOMO

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              NY
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              Posted: September 14, 2009, 12:42 am - IP Logged

              To KY: The odds do not change unless the number of tickets change. If it is a good bet or not,  is another issue.

              If you spend $100 on tickets, will the number of tickets you have be different for games where tickets are $1 each and $100 each?

                Grovel's avatar - f800e6a39fbfea795d1dcbb09f2244
                Little Rock, AR
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                Posted: September 14, 2009, 12:56 am - IP Logged

                Now you are no longer making any sense. I am done with this discussion.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: September 14, 2009, 9:50 am - IP Logged

                  To KY: The odds do not change unless the number of tickets change. If it is a good bet or not,  is another issue.

                  The debate about odds has been going on ever since I joined LP and it's always about comparing odds to chances. If one ticket is bought, there are 15,000 tickets sold, and of those tickets only one is a winner than each ticket has a 1 in 15,000 chance of being drawn. If each ticket costs $100 and the prize is $300,000 then you divide the prize by the cost of the ticket; $300,000/$100=$3000 so the payoff odds are 3000 to 1. Depending how it's expressed, you're equally correct by saying the odds are 1 in 15,000 or 3000 to 1.

                  This debate started when somebody said "the odds [15,000 to 1] sound good" and Floyd pointed out you're only getting a return of 20% of the odds. And since the objective in the first post was to win $300,000 on a $100 bet getting 1 chance out of 15,000, I showed a better way to win $300,000 by making a $60 bet on the pick-4 with 1 chance out of 10,000.

                  After reading the details of how a developer is donating a $300,000 home as first prize in a raffle where the proceeds will go to the Ronald McDonald House, it's not really a $100 bet but a charitable contribution and possibly a tax deductible. If you want to make a donation, buy a raffle ticket but if you want to win $300,000 with better odds for less money, play the lottery.