Computer Draws ? Outliers or just broken software?

Reply #33

paurths — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 02:49:07 GMT

Oops, my mistake, it should have been 12.43 times due instead of 14.43 times due...

Reply #32

WIN D — Wed, 27 Apr 2011 00:00:37 GMT

There it blows ....... 930 ! Really .....it blows....in a bad way ! LOL 14.43 times out ..wow, thats a spicy meat ball.

Ricky ...you mentioned that Magic 12 ... line in the sand....... .and I absolutely agree with you. Remember that old post of mine years ago about ...Magic X Six times due? It was in the Math forum...

Well, that is double that 6 times math average pot hole.

My wager is that it's the reason for the 12 times line in the sand situation...as well.

I reall... [ More ]

Reply #31

lakerben — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 17:22:15 GMT

Interesting concept ,but like I said it is how the chip is programmed as to why that many skips are prevalent for a particular set of numbers. New Mexico is computerized and as of lately certain pairs are hitting over and over. 55 hit 3 times in the last 5 draws. No mirros rundowns, etc could explain this. Its the chip. Some say its random but explain the repeated digits. I'm going out on a limb and betting 000 for tonight. Even though the digit 9 is out 14 draws. Perhaps 900

Reply #30

paurths — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 16:45:48 GMT

Broken ball machine in NY midday... finally a COC came in, 930...

This list of 48 straight numbers,

020, 026, 028, 029, 030, 036, 038, 039, 050, 056, 058, 059, 620, 626, 628, 629, 630, 636, 638, 639, 650, 656, 658, 659, 820, 826, 828, 829, 830, 836, 838, 839, 850, 856, 858, 859, 920, 926, 928, 929, 930, 936, 938, 939, 950, 956, 958, 959

has been out for ... 259 draws

With an average skip of 21.07 draws, that made it 14.43 times due before one hit...

If this happened in a RNG state... [ More ]

Reply #29

JosephusMinimus — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 13:27:53 GMT

Paurths: That's excellent information you provided and you obviously went to a lot of trouble working it out. That's the sort of thing every lottery commission ought to be doing, lacking an industry standard for internal safeguards.

If lottery commissions were actually concerned about pre-emptive measures to save themselves a lot of blushing and reorganization along with palls of public mistrust and sagging sales in the aftermaths of getting caught doing things they should have known ahead of... [ More ]

Reply #28

JosephusMinimus — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 12:19:33 GMT

Thought provoking posts Paurths. Thanks.

Reply #27

paurths — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 11:25:52 GMT

Here is some info on (watch the future of this pick3, and pick4, game breakdown!) : combined states .

I have created 400 combined states , each made up of 3 states (games),

and these are some of the top Due's . (these are from yesterday, before the midday draws!)

MSName TimesDue AvSkip CurrentSkip Item Numbers Nbrs

PA (E)_TN (M)_Tri State (M) 12,23 31 379 MMM OOO OOE OEO EOO 333, 334, 335, 336, 343, 345, 353, 354, 355, 356, 363, 365, 433, 435, 453, 455, 533, 534, 535, 536, 543, 54... [ More ]

Reply #26

truecritic — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 23:06:49 GMT

You are absolutely correct WIN D, the lotteries that choose to use RNG better figure out a way (rules) to detect this kind of thing and make sure their RNG is working.

Always in awe of your work Ricky.

Reply #25

JosephusMinimus — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 22:45:30 GMT

Good point.

But in almost anything where large amounts of money are involved there's an industry standard of accepted practices and minimums of scrutiny and accountability. The stock market, for example, has legions of of people dedicated to the sole task of watching for anomalies hinting of insider trading. Banks are scrutinized by examiners, auditors and computer software devised to identify misbehavior, fraud, theft, anything out of order or outside industry standards and accepted practice... [ More ]

Reply #24

JAP69 — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 22:07:57 GMT

The lottery may not mention that the digit 8 has been drawn in a pretest.

Reply #23

JosephusMinimus — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 21:47:12 GMT

There are already some worthy answers but it's a question worth a lot of thought and discussion. I don't know the answer and I'm surprised to learn it's never been discussed to death.

Probably this ought to be a sticky thread on Lottery Systems Forum, the Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, and Math Forums.

I believe you've offered one of the best threads I've yet seen on LP to date and I hope it gets discussed to death enough times to allow the most circumspect of us to arrive at opinions from our... [ More ]

Reply #22

Raven62 — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 21:07:21 GMT

OK then:

Pos #1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Avg Skip 9.3 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.2 8.9 9.3 8.8 8.7 9.1

Max Skip 69 58 66 65 62 68 123 72 57 79

Pos #2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Avg Skip 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.8 9.6 9.4 9.0 8.9 8.7

Max Skip 66 78 74 61 59 74 66 82 64 66

Pos #3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Avg Skip 9.0 8.1 9.2 9.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.1 9.0

Max Skip 65 70 58 90 62 60 69 60 80 102

Pos Any 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Avg Skip 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7

Max Skip 26 25 24 1... [ More ]

Reply #21

tiggs95 — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 21:05:17 GMT

tiggs reads some of these post and thinks maybe he should visit ridge and start drinking all over again and then maybe he'll start understanding them if he's drunk.....like tiggs pal ridge..

Reply #20

paurths — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 20:59:06 GMT

Hi Chaz,

i have never ran the same code for boxed structures, like digits.

Here is a list of of those stinkers .

I have taken the top 500 of longest TimesDue ever, grouped them on subtype (a subtype can be FrontPair, or BackPair, ... -- where the type would be Pair, just an example)

This top 500 is from 8,65 times due through 14,21 times due.

Then counted how many times that SubItem showed up in that top 500

SubType TotalStructures

WIDTH 76

LMH DIGITS 42

OPENCLO... [ More ]

Reply #19

CARBOB — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 17:30:55 GMT

Chaz,

There are members on this forum who don't get the thanks and recognition they deserve, including youself, Ricky,Todd and many others. How Todd keeps this forum running is beyond me, way beyond my skills. I agree with your assessment about the digits.

Reply #18

RJOh — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 16:46:53 GMT

I play pick5 and jackpots game and usually stick with what happens 95% of the time in their drawings to develop statistics for generating combinations to play which also eliminates the effects of outliers on the data. I've found that every game even of the same types has its own unique sets of outliers which means there's no general set of rules that will fit any of them. So far I've stayed away from games with computer generated drawings.

Reply #17

WIN D — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 16:21:15 GMT

Wow ..... Paurths (Ricky) !

Thanks again!

Just wanted to let you know you're appreciated. Your talent ......leadership and ability to get things done like this are an inspiration to us all, and it all really helps us make our old fashion lottery hobby.......into the success that it is today. As long as I am in this mode... and on this subject of talent ....we all have to tip our hats to Todd of course ...our LP creator.

Thank you for all that you do Ricky. We couldn't do it without... [ More ]

Reply #16

Delta Draw — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 10:21:45 GMT

Well,.. you re looking at it all like your definition of what is normal could be easily defined. You are not going down some goat trail, you are on strait approach:

This is the way we look at statistics. Because, blah, blah blah.

this is the way we will look at an event.

Maybe your logical approach to the game is not flawed; you do not consider that the information and what is considered as a normal event is, . a flagrant violation of reality. ?

What do think about what is random... [ More ]

Reply #15

paurths — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 08:49:55 GMT

Thanks Jordans121,

it can all be found in a certain piece of software...(only via PM, for those who don't know it...)

cheers

Ricky

Reply #14

Jordans121 — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 08:45:14 GMT

Incredible info Ricky

Reply #13

paurths — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 08:25:03 GMT

Hi,

statistically each digit should show itself in the draws every 3.33 draws. So that becomes its average skip.

The following table shows, for each digit in each position how many times each digit has come to the draws.

For Oklahoma, these are counted for a total of 1989 draws. Which makes 5967 digit-positions.

Pos 1 Pos 1 Pos 2 Pos 2 Pos 3 Pos 3 Total Total

Digit Times Digit Times Digit Digit Times

6 223 9 220 1 222 7 621

7 219 0 214 2 208 0 616

2 206 5 207 0 2... [ More ]

Reply #12

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:36:45 GMT

Thanks for the input Raven....

I've never seen a probability distribution function completely characterized like that. LOL

Reply #11

Raven62 — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:29:37 GMT

When the Roar from Players gets so Loud that the Governor Hears It: The Governor then Directs the Lottery Commissioner to Look Into the Complaints

Reply #10

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:15:17 GMT

Good .... now that was the orginal point anyway.

Where is the line? Hoping for something along the lines of ....PROBABILITY distribution perhaps....not just opinions or feelings.

At what point did Tenn lottery decide to finally start to investigate their broken software problem? Where should it have been? At what point should the officals look for and begin monitoring for potential errors.......before they go on too long

Reply #9

Raven62 — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:06:05 GMT

When it exceeds the Max for Ball Drawn Games: You know what that is Right?

If NOT: After a Year or Two

Reply #8

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:59:22 GMT

Well.... OK Raven

I missed getting My point across. LOL

?What I should have said was .....

At what point does it move from being an OUTLIER Stat......to broken software

Reply #7

lakerben — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:50:23 GMT

It could be the way the processor that outputs the numbers is programmed.

Reply #6

Raven62 — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:48:52 GMT

Point NOT Missed!

What's the Max for Ball Drawn Games?

What's the Max for Other RNG Games? (Wisconsin)

If one thinks all Games are Manipulated: then it would be Outliar

Reply #5

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:42:22 GMT

Thanks Jade.... you got it. That was the point.

Now then, at what point should that be? Funny we have never had any discussions on that event.....just the same old computer draws are bad stuff ......over and over.

Reply #4

JADELottery — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:34:10 GMT

I'd look at #3 as well.

Looks a little suspect.

But you have to look at all the draws.

Seems an early detection system or systems need to be put in place.

Reply #3

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:34:08 GMT

Point missed ......

@ what point does it move from being an outlier...... to broken software

Reply #2

Raven62 — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:17:58 GMT

Where ya goin' with this:

OK 4/18 128

OK 4/19 852

OK 4/20 802

33 Days is not outside the norm for Ball Drawn Games...

Reply #1

time*treat — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:04:58 GMT

If you notice it and make money on it, it's an outlier .

If you don't notice it and lose money by playing other numbers, it's broken software .

Computer Draws ? Outliers or just broken software?

WIN D — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 15:26:41 GMT

At what point do abnormal draw happenings go from simply .....OUTLIERS stats ........to simply bad or Broken draw software ??

The Oklahoma Pick 3 game uses a computer program for it's draws. Recently, an inquiry was made to the State lottery officals regarding the unusual pick 3 draws there and the fact that no Digit # 8 had been drawn in any position for the last 33 draws and counting.... !

The question is...... At what point are these paid officals responsible for monitoring... [ More ]