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Computer Draws ? Outliers or just broken software?

Topic closed. 33 replies. Last post 6 years ago by paurths.

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WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
Stone Mountain*Georgia
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Posted: April 21, 2011, 11:26 am - IP Logged

                   At what point do abnormal draw happenings go from simply .....OUTLIERS stats ........to simply bad or Broken draw software ??

 

 

 The  Oklahoma Pick 3 game uses a computer program for it's draws.  Recently, an inquiry was made to the State lottery officals regarding the unusual pick 3 draws there and the fact that no Digit # 8 had been drawn in any position for the last 33 draws and counting.... ! 

 The question is......   At what point are these paid officals responsible for monitoring potential problems or unusual things that are ONGOING ?   

 Yes, right from the start .....this fact alone creates several credability problems for the State lottery  .....but, the real problem comes when the state lottery officals have no rules about when or at what point ......they should finally take responsibility for looking into questionable results.  When ?

 The computer software problems in the Tenn pick 3 software scandel went on much too long. Even after many, many citizens began to question the very abnormal draw results there ......they simply smiled knowingly...... and schrouged off any thoughts of looking into their own faulty software. Much later the software was actually proven to be broken! Consequently, because of their very long delays.........many more of the citizens were hurt. This went on over a much longer time that need be.....and before they finally started to look into the problem and found the flaws.

 So, what should the rules be to protect the players?       @what point should they at least begin ....to look into these ......." Abnormal results" 

 For now .....the states using Computer draws can always simply say..... " Don't worry.....these stats are just "Outlier results"  that happen from time to time.  The problem is ......they can always say this to people no matter what is happening!  At some point they really can't say that anymore ...... What is that point?

 There needs to be some sort of rules or at least industry quidelines to save players from what happened in the Tenn lottery scandel ever happening again. This type of problem  should never be ignored and allowed to go so long. 

 

   

 

 

The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                       Win d    

    time*treat's avatar - radar

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    Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:04 pm - IP Logged

    If you notice it and make money on it, it's an "outlier". Wink

    If you don't notice it and lose money by playing other numbers, it's "broken software".

    In neo-conned Amerika, bank robs you.
    Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms should be the name of a convenience store, not a govnoment agency.

      Raven62's avatar - binary
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      Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

      Where ya goin' with this:

      OK 4/18 128
      OK 4/19 852
      OK 4/20 802

      33 Days is not outside the norm for Ball Drawn Games...

      A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
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        Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

        Where ya goin' with this:

        OK 4/18 128
        OK 4/19 852
        OK 4/20 802

        33 Days is not outside the norm for Ball Drawn Games...

         Point missed ...... 

                                                 @ what point does it move from being an outlier...... to broken software?

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
          The Quantum Master
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          Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

          I'd look at #3 as well.

          Looks a little suspect.

          But you have to look at all the draws.

          Seems an early detection system or systems need to be put in place.

          Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
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          Use at your own risk.

          Order is a Subset of Chaos
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          Jehocifer

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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            Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:42 pm - IP Logged

            I'd look at #3 as well.

            Looks a little suspect.

            But you have to look at all the draws.

            Seems an early detection system or systems need to be put in place.

               Thanks Jade.... you got it.  That was the point. 

               Now then, at what point should that be?  Funny we have never had any discussions on that event.....just the same old "computer draws are bad" stuff ......over and over.

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              Raven62's avatar - binary
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              Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

               Point missed ...... 

                                                       @ what point does it move from being an outlier...... to broken software?

              Point NOT Missed!

              What's the Max for Ball Drawn Games?

              What's the Max for Other RNG Games? (Wisconsin)

              If one thinks all Games are Manipulated: then it would be Outliar! LOL

              A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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                Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

                It could be the way the processor that outputs the numbers is programmed.

                 

                Thumbs Up

                  WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                  Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                  Posted: April 21, 2011, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

                  Point NOT Missed!

                  What's the Max for Ball Drawn Games?

                  What's the Max for Other RNG Games? (Wisconsin)

                  If one thinks all Games are Manipulated: then it would be Outliar! LOL

                   Well.... OK Raven 

                    I missed getting "My" point across.  LOL 

                     

                      ?What I should have said was .....

                             At what point does it move from being an OUTLIER Stat......to broken software

                   

                   

                  The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                         Win d    

                    Raven62's avatar - binary
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                    Posted: April 21, 2011, 1:06 pm - IP Logged

                     Well.... OK Raven 

                      I missed getting "My" point across.  LOL 

                       

                        ?What I should have said was .....

                               At what point does it move from being an OUTLIER Stat......to broken software

                    When it exceeds the Max for Ball Drawn Games: You know what that is Right?

                    If NOT: After a Year or Two! Thumbs Up LOL

                    A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                      WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                      Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                      Posted: April 21, 2011, 1:15 pm - IP Logged

                      When it exceeds the Max for Ball Drawn Games: You know what that is Right?

                      If NOT: After a Year or Two! Thumbs Up LOL

                       Good .... now that was the orginal point anyway.

                       Where is the line?  Hoping for something along the lines of ....PROBABILITY distribution perhaps....not just opinions or feelings.   

                       At what point did Tenn lottery decide to finally start to investigate their broken software problem?  Where should it have been? At what point should  the officals look for and begin monitoring for potential errors.......before they go on too long? 

                       

                       

                      The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                    Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                    Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                             Win d    

                        Raven62's avatar - binary
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                        Posted: April 21, 2011, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

                         Good .... now that was the orginal point anyway.

                         Where is the line?  Hoping for something along the lines of ....PROBABILITY distribution perhaps....not just opinions or feelings.   

                         At what point did Tenn lottery decide to finally start to investigate their broken software problem?  Where should it have been? At what point should  the officals look for and begin monitoring for potential errors.......before they go on too long? 

                        When the Roar from Players gets so Loud that the Governor Hears It: The Governor then Directs the Lottery Commissioner to Look Into the Complaints! LOL

                        A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                          Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                          Posted: April 21, 2011, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

                          When the Roar from Players gets so Loud that the Governor Hears It: The Governor then Directs the Lottery Commissioner to Look Into the Complaints! LOL

                           Thanks for the input Raven.... 

                                I've never seen a probability distribution function completely characterized like that.   LOL 

                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d    

                            paurths's avatar - underground
                            Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                            Posted: April 22, 2011, 4:25 am - IP Logged

                            Hi,

                            statistically each digit should show itself in the draws every 3.33 draws. So that becomes its average skip.

                            The following table shows, for each digit in each position how many times each digit has come to the draws.

                            For Oklahoma, these are counted for a total of 1989 draws. Which makes 5967 digit-positions.

                            Pos 1Pos 1 Pos 2Pos 2 Pos 3Pos 3 TotalTotal
                            DigitTimes DigitTimes Digit  DigitTimes
                            6223 9220 1222 7621
                            7219 0214 2208 0616
                            2206 5207 0208 2615
                            5200 4206 7200 9611
                            9196 7202 8198 1604
                            0194 2201 9195 5595
                            3190 1194 4192 6591
                            1188 3186 6190 4584
                            8187 8181 5188 8566
                            4186 6178 3188 3564

                             

                            Anyway, for each position, the mathematical average for each digit is 1989 / 10 = 198.
                            Which means, that mathematically each digit should show a value of 198 in the second column "Times".

                            Ofcourse this will be not so, and slightly abbreviate from this average.

                            To me, everything seems quite normal in this chart. Although it might be said that the eye catches that digit 8 because it is in 9th position for each column.

                            Now in the most right column, it has the sums of all the "times", and we see that digit 8 is not even the worst performing digit...

                             

                            So digit 8 did not show up for 33 draws.
                            With an average skip of 3.33 draws, that would bring us to a value of 9.9 times due.

                            And for a digit this is indeed a long time.

                             

                            Is it now correct to draw the conclusion "broken software" or such?
                            To know this, we should look at games where they use Machine ball draws.

                            Just as it happens, i have ran some code, last year, to find items/Structures that have set some high Times Due values.
                            First, what are structures?
                            Structures are simply another word for "combined filters".
                            For example, we have OddEven, HighLow, InOut, OpenClosedStraight, Width-pairs, FrontPairs, BackPairs, SplitPairs, etcetera...

                            The following structure, EEO OOI (INOUT) ( E=Even, O=Odd, I=In, O=Out) has the following 27 numbers : 003, 005, 007, 023, 025, 027, 083, 085, 087, 203, 205, 207, 223, 225, 227, 283, 285, 287, 803, 805, 807, 823, 825, 827, 883, 885, 887
                            (you can use the free Pick3 wheeling engine to create those structures which can be downloaded from my Blog here at LP )

                            Now, these 27 straight numbers have an average skip of give and take 37 draws (1000 draws / 27 numbers = 37.03)
                            It has happened that none of these 16 numbers have come to the draw, for... 526 draws!!!
                            A simple calculation, 526 draws / 37 = 14.2 teaches us the highest times due ever.

                            Now, if we would translate this to our digit 8 in Oklahoma, this means that this digit would have not shown for 47 draws!

                             

                            Now, this structure that has once not shown in the draws for 526 draws, reaching an extremely high Times Due skip of 14.2 times was in... KY midday, a machine ball game...

                             

                            The second in row of Highest Times Due ever was SplitPair X_X 22, with an average skip of 100 draws, it stayed away for 1357 draws, making it 13.57 times due, in ... MI midday, also a machine ball game.

                             

                            The third in row of Highest Times Due ever was FrontPair XX_ 03, with an average skip of 100 draws, it stayed away for 1298 draws, making it 12.98 times due, in ... GA eve, also a machine ball game.

                             

                            The fourht in row of Highest Times Due ever was MML EEE EEO EOE OEE (28 straight numbers : 340, 342, 360, 362, 430, 432, 440, 441, 442, 450, 452, 460, 461, 462, 540, 542, 560, 562, 630, 632, 640, 641, 642, 650, 652, 660, 661, 662) with an average skip of 36 draws, it stayed away for 460 draws, making it 12.4 times due, in ... TX midday, also a machine ball game

                             

                            The first item i find for RNG is OOO IIO (INOUT) (18 straight numbers : 331, 339, 351, 359, 371, 379, 531, 539, 551, 559, 571, 579, 731, 739, 751, 759, 771, 779) in IN eve.
                            It has an average skip of 56 draws, and it stayed away for 681 draws, making it 12.16 times due.

                             

                             

                            What are your conclusions to this information?

                             

                            btw: currently, in NY midday, the following 48 straight numbers (COC (open closed) : 020, 026, 028, 029, 030, 036, 038, 039, 050, 056, 058, 059, 620, 626, 628, 629, 630, 636, 638, 639, 650, 656, 658, 659, 820, 826, 828, 829, 830, 836, 838, 839, 850, 856, 858, 859, 920, 926, 928, 929, 930, 936, 938, 939, 950, 956, 958, 959) , with an average skip of 21 draws, have not shown for ... 255 draws, which makes it 12.24 times due...
                            New York midday is machine ball game...

                             

                             

                             

                            Top 10 highest skips ever :

                             

                            StructureHighestSkipAvSkipTotalDueStateComputerizedNumbersNbrs
                            EEO OOI (INOUT)5263714,21KY (M)NO003, 005, 007, 023, 025, 027, 083, 085, 087, 203, 205, 207, 223, 225, 227, 283, 285, 287, 803, 805, 807, 823, 825, 827, 883, 885, 88727
                            SPAIR X_X 22135710013,57MI (M)NO202, 212, 222, 232, 242, 252, 262, 272, 282, 29210
                            FPAIR XX_ 03129810012,98GA (E)NO030, 031, 032, 033, 034, 035, 036, 037, 038, 03910
                            MML EEE EEO EOE OEE4603612,77TX (M)NO340, 342, 360, 362, 430, 432, 440, 441, 442, 450, 452, 460, 461, 462, 540, 542, 560, 562, 630, 632, 640, 641, 642, 650, 652, 660, 661, 66228
                            WIDTH FRONTPAIR 83102512,4NJ (M)NO080, 081, 082, 083, 084, 085, 086, 087, 088, 089, 190, 191, 192, 193, 194, 195, 196, 197, 198, 199, 800, 801, 802, 803, 804, 805, 806, 807, 808, 809, 910, 911, 912, 913, 914, 915, 916, 917, 918, 91940
                            OEO LLL10228312,31OH (M)NO101, 103, 121, 123, 141, 143, 301, 303, 321, 323, 341, 34312
                            CSO EEE EEO EOE OEE7546212,16MI (E)NO012, 042, 043, 045, 072, 612, 642, 643, 645, 672, 812, 842, 843, 845, 872, 94216
                            OOO IIO (INOUT)6815612,16IN (E)YES331, 339, 351, 359, 371, 379, 531, 539, 551, 559, 571, 579, 731, 739, 751, 759, 771, 77918
                            BPAIR _XX 56120810012,08NJ (E)NO056, 156, 256, 356, 456, 556, 656, 756, 856, 95610
                            WIDTH SPLITPAIR 384712MO (E)YES003, 013, 023, 033, 043, 053, 063, 073, 083, 093, 104, 114, 124, 134, 144, 154, 164, 174, 184, 194, 205, 215, 225, 235, 245, 255, 265, 275, 285, 295, 300, 306, 310, 316, 320, 326, 330, 336, 340, 346, 350, 356, 360, 366, 370, 376, 380, 386, 390, 396, 401,  140
                            WIDTH BACKPAIR 272612KS (E)YES002, 013, 020, 024, 031, 035, 042, 046, 053, 057, 064, 068, 075, 079, 086, 097, 102, 113, 120, 124, 131, 135, 142, 146, 153, 157, 164, 168, 175, 179, 186, 197, 202, 213, 220, 224, 231, 235, 242, 246, 253, 257, 264, 268, 275, 279, 286, 297, 302, 313, 320,  160

                             

                            Cheers,
                            Ricky

                            lasas3

                            An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

                              Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

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                              Posted: April 22, 2011, 4:45 am - IP Logged

                              Incredible info Ricky!!

                              "Many Strategies|One Game"