How to calculate these types of probability?

Reply #13

SergeM — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 00:25:44 GMT

I analysed some of pick 3 and noticed that if things would go well, you would pay a lot of tickets and you would get just a bit over break even. If the case doesn't come out, you lose big money.

The only interest that I had in pick 3 is working out odds and tables in Excel.

Again, if I consider that you could win a pick 3 by some method, get break even consistently, then you might double your money at roulette. That I would do!

Technical problems like wheeling can be solved. Printing on... [ More ]

Reply #12

KnuckleHead — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:35:29 GMT

Hello SergeM,

Your statement of: I don't play pick 3, the payout is low. , is very understandable.

It would appear that from your point of view, low pay out games are a waste of time. This is also understandable.

From my point of view, attempting to comprehend different theories of probabilities and combinations, then attempting to figure out how to create the program language to implement an idea, it's much easier to work with a smaller number pool. That being stated, I still attempt t... [ More ]

Reply #11

SergeM — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 16:12:18 GMT

You have ten digits there. Your probability is 1/10.

If you play pick 3 you are likely to lose half of your money.

What is random?

I don't play pick 3, the payout is low.

-1 +500 = 499 with odds 1:1000

499*0.001=0.499

You lose 0.501 of your bet.

Reply #10

KnuckleHead — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:55:29 GMT

Evening all,

Reading the last 2 posts, I have to admit that I understand that the draws are random . I track the Texas, Power-Ball, and Mega Millions games. I've watched the videos of the balls come out of the ball machines. But, without enough historical data to analyze, it appears that specific balls react differently based on the historical data. That's what I'm attempting to figure out how to analyze. Just because a table contains ball numbers with their associated draw numbers in it for... [ More ]

Reply #9

dr san — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 21:51:35 GMT

Hello, knuckl, so you can use 0,1,2,3 = high Average = 4.5 6,7,8,9 = high, To sort the endings, ok! The big problem as gasmu speak, are the trends and repetitions of a result to another, because one is projected to result, (single event), making impossible any prediction for the whole of the draw, since half if you can predict, for example a lotto 49/6 3-4 numbers can be predicted with confidence, then we have to tackle is the prediction of half of a lottery, The other part is random, a lottery

Reply #8

GASMETERGUY — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 18:59:09 GMT

KnucklyHead

You are dealing with random here. You are leaving the world of probabilities. There is no mathematical proof of anything while you are vacationing in the realm of random. Therefore, anything you may think or say can not be proven nor disproven.

Having said this, you must make decisions as you see them. Does a drawn number have a better chance of being drawn in the next drawing or less of a chance? Makes no difference. You must make a determination and then stick with it.

If... [ More ]

Reply #7

garyo1954 — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:26:07 GMT

Can't find the stuff on this machine.

But this is along the idea:

Top part is the overall breakdown of repeating digits - First digit repeats back to first position 285 times, it moves to the second position 240, and moves to the third 234. Reads the same for the second and third digits.

Bottom of the chart shows how many times the digit in each position remains the same, goes lower, or goes higher. But you might be better served to use a chart like this that shows the change on a d... [ More ]

Reply #6

KnuckleHead — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 23:48:22 GMT

Afternoon garyo1954,

That's what I'm attempting to figure out, trends . How to construct formulas or subs/scripts for... trends in the data.

Anything can be counted, but what good is having all this historical data if you don't know how to put it all together and analyze it properly?

Thank you. KH

Reply #5

garyo1954 — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:43:54 GMT

I am a big fan of historical data. I tend to use it mostly as a baseline while tracking recent trends.

I might have something that would help. I post it later this evening when I get a chance to find the program and do an update.

G

Reply #4

KnuckleHead — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 21:39:39 GMT

Afternoon garyo1954,

To answer your questions...

1) Since PowerBall, Mega Millions, and the Texas Lottery use some sort of ball machines and not RGN programs, then yes, I believe that each draw is independent and random.

2) and 3) Based on answer 1), I don't see how it could increase OR decrease the probability if the draws are truly random.

Therefore, is it possible to track the historical draw data to get an idea of the ball positions as they've hit in the past. Yes, the draws are... [ More ]

Reply #3

garyo1954 — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 17:52:40 GMT

The people who have studied gambling theory would be better suited to answer the formula question. In my opinion, the formula you are looking for depends on how you see the lottery drawings.

1) Are they all independent and random?

2) When a digit hits, does this increase the probability of it hitting again?

3) When a digit hits, does this decrease the probability of it hitting again?

There are good and valid reasons on all sides. For example one could use the idea that 62% of the dra... [ More ]

Reply #2

KnuckleHead — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 04:12:33 GMT

Evening garyo1954,

Sorry not to have gotten back sooner...

Below is my Texas Pick 3 Day game. According to my records, it has 1325 games in it since the last matrix changed on Nov. 12, 2007.

TOTAL DRAWS - COLUMN COUNT - NUMBER FREQUENCY and PERCENTAGE CHART

Column Counts 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1st Column Count Number Frequency 140 134 111 120 144 145 139 112 151 129

Percentage for 1st Column Count 10.57% 10.11% 8.38% 9.06% 10.87% 10.94% 10.49% 8.45% 11.40% 9.74%

2nd Co... [ More ]

Reply #1

garyo1954 — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 21:08:51 GMT

Based on the short term it would be easy to total each category and divide by the number of draws.

Random being, well, random, gives you only a 10% chance of any number in a given position.

However, a number going higher or lower, or staying the same, depends on the number. If the number is 7, then you have a 70% chance (0,1,2,3,4,5,6) it will go low, a 10% chance (7) it remains the same and a 20% chance (8,9) that it will go higher.

Depending on the number of draws, the biggest drawbac... [ More ]

How to calculate these types of probability?

KnuckleHead — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:36:24 GMT

Hello all,

I'm attempting to figure out if I can create a formula to:

1) Calculate the probability of the next number being either Odd, Even, or Same.

2) Calculate the probability of the next number being either Higher, Lower, or Same?

From the below table of numbers (newest numbers are at the top - oldest to the bottom):

[The next number in the sequence was a 7 - IE. 7 6 1 2 7 7 etc.]

6

1

2

7

7

0

7

3

8

5

2

3

8

5

1

0

7

9

1... [ More ]