A Black Swan in the lottery?

Reply #11

Coin Toss — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 19:04:04 GMT

Neither lotteries or casinos are in business to offer 'fair payouts'.

Reply #10

SergeM — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 15:43:07 GMT

Pick 3 odds: 1:1000

Pick 3 payout: 500

Pick 3 result: 499

Edge = bank advantage = (1000 - 499)/1000 = 501/1000 = 50.1% not just 50% // Help: 499 = 500 payout - 1 bet.

The fair payout would be 1000. There are 000 to 999 possible combinations, that equals to 1+999 = 1000. The payout is lousy compared to roulette!

For roulette you are allowed to keep your bet, unless you tip the dealer.

Edges:

Pick 3: 50.1% (1-499/1000) or (499/1000-1)

Roulette American: 5.26% (1-36/38) o... [ More ]

Reply #9

Coin Toss — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 01:33:24 GMT

Boney526,

Better odds, yes, but SergeM said better payouts.

The house edge on almost all roulette bets is 5.26%, but odds and payouts are different.

The odds bets on craps on the Pass Line and Come bets (and Don't Pass and Don't come) are the ony bets in the entire casino that pay true odds, but you have to have the flat bet to take or lay odds.

The game of Faro was taken out of the casinos a long time ago because most of the game was an even money bet, didn't make much for the house... [ More ]

Reply #8

Boney526 — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 00:14:55 GMT

Roulette has a better payout relative to odds, than pick 3 games generally do.

Pick 3 odds are 1 in 1000, so the house edge on a payout of 500 for 1 is 50%. 600 for 1 is 40%.

Roulette odds are 1 in 38 in American, and 1 in 37 in European roulette. The edge is on American is 2/38=5.26% and European is 1/37=2.63%.

That's a huge difference in edge.

Reply #7

SergeM — Mon, 09 Apr 2012 00:11:06 GMT

Bank advantage! See Kelly criterion.

Reply #6

Coin Toss — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 22:18:14 GMT

SergeM,

Yeah, by eight black in a row I meant the color black hitting eight times consecutively.

I know the European wheels don't have 0 and 00 but a biased wheel is still a biased wheel.

I'm not sure how you mean roulette has a better payout than Pick 3, 35 to 1 as opposed to 500 or 600 to 1 straight or 290 to1 (depends on the state) striaght box or 40 to 1 box.

American pit bosses watch panels like hawks. They get very concerned about dealers who can hit panels coinsistently when p... [ More ]

Reply #5

SergeM — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 19:46:08 GMT

Coin Toss

One difference is that we use European wheels with 37 numbers. There is no 00.

The panels can differ from one casino to another. We had 13 numbers on the panel, I believe.

In Brussels they even show games out and hot numbers on the board, which is a computer screen now.

There is a minimum and a maximum bet, for example 20 to 3000 by 10.

Your game is as good as your picks, same as for your wheels in the lottery.

Look at that eight black in a row, time to bet red.

N... [ More ]

Reply #4

Coin Toss — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:37:33 GMT

SergeM,

I don't know if Belgian or European casinos have those poles next to the roulette wheels with a digital readout of the last 17 to 20 spins, but when they put them in US csinos roulette revenue increased 23%.

Look at that eight black in a row, time to bet red.

But as savagegoose said, all night consistency would never happen as the bosses would get very concenred about a biased wheel and shut the game down.

Reply #3

SergeM — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 17:09:44 GMT

I once spinned 13 times red, than we switched and I took my break, right on time.

Reply #2

savagegoose — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 14:49:12 GMT

i would say its impossible for red to come out all night because by the 20th spin, the wheel would be shut and players moved to another wheel, if it continued on next wheeel, then the whole roulette game section would be closed

Reply #1

importchips — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 12:56:21 GMT

I think more so that randomness is probabilty possibility also random doesnt know its self but destiny knows random.Only way i see a nuber coming up 10 times if u some how fix it.Random wakes up in the morning without a plan but destiny knows randoms movements and his destiny.

A Black Swan in the lottery?

SergeM — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 10:22:44 GMT

I think that there is no definition for randomness. At the moment I am reading The black swan written by Nassim Thaleb. It is like evolution is nothing but the sum of hazards, random events.

If I may rephrase the author, a little differently, it will never happen ten times in a row, that an impossible combination will be drawn. For the usual pick 3, impossible would be for example A-Z-4.

I would talk of a Black Swan in a lottery, if the same number in mega-millions would appear 50 times i... [ More ]