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A Black Swan in the lottery?

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Coin Toss.

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SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
Economy class
Belgium
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February 27, 2012
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Posted: April 8, 2012, 6:22 am - IP Logged

         I think that there is no definition for randomness. At the moment I am reading "The black swan" written by Nassim Thaleb. It is like evolution is nothing but the sum of hazards, random events.
          If I may rephrase the author, a little differently, it will never happen ten times in a row, that an impossible combination will be drawn. For the usual pick 3, impossible would be for example A-Z-4.

         I would talk of a Black Swan in a lottery, if the same number in mega-millions would appear 50 times in a row. The term is wrong of course, this number would have to be a number not belonging to the set of numbers to play. The drawing would then be illegal.

         If you ask a pit boss, gaming inspector, in the casino, it would be perfectly possible that red numbers would come out, at a roulette table, for an entire night. By calculation it seems to be a nearly impossible event.
At the roulette a player stated that it is very rare to see numbers coming up in order, like 1 2 3.

         What are your ideas about this? I think that math doesn't have to be right.


    United States
    Member #116083
    September 4, 2011
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    Posted: April 8, 2012, 8:56 am - IP Logged

    I think more so that randomness is probabilty possibility also random doesnt know its self but destiny knows random.Only way i see a nuber coming up 10 times if u some how fix it.Random wakes up in the morning without a plan but destiny knows randoms movements and his destiny.

      savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
      adelaide sa
      Australia
      Member #37136
      April 11, 2006
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      Posted: April 8, 2012, 10:49 am - IP Logged

      i would say its impossible for  red to come out all night because by the 20th spin, the wheel would be shut and players moved to another wheel, if it continued on next wheeel, then the whole roulette game section would be closed

      2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

      keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
        Economy class
        Belgium
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        February 27, 2012
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        Posted: April 8, 2012, 1:09 pm - IP Logged

        I once spinned 13 times red, than we switched and I took my break, right on time.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
          United States
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          January 17, 2006
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          Posted: April 8, 2012, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

          SergeM,

          I don't know if Belgian or European casinos have those poles next to the roulette wheels with a digital readout of the last 17 to 20 spins, but when they put them in US csinos roulette revenue increased 23%.

          "Look at that eight black in a row, time to bet red."

          But as savagegoose said, all night consistency would never happen as the bosses would get very concenred about a biased wheel and shut the game down.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
            Economy class
            Belgium
            Member #123700
            February 27, 2012
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            Posted: April 8, 2012, 3:46 pm - IP Logged

            SergeM,

            I don't know if Belgian or European casinos have those poles next to the roulette wheels with a digital readout of the last 17 to 20 spins, but when they put them in US csinos roulette revenue increased 23%.

            "Look at that eight black in a row, time to bet red."

            But as savagegoose said, all night consistency would never happen as the bosses would get very concenred about a biased wheel and shut the game down.

            Coin Toss

            One difference is that we use European wheels with 37 numbers. There is no 00.
            The panels can differ from one casino to another. We had 13 numbers on the panel, I believe.
            In Brussels they even show games out and hot numbers on the board, which is a computer screen now.

            There is a minimum and a maximum bet, for example 20 to 3000 by 10.
            Your game is as good as your picks, same as for your wheels in the lottery.

            "Look at that eight black in a row, time to bet red."
            Number eight is black, do you mean eight blacks?

            Roulette has a better payout than pick 3.
            1/37 pays 35 to 1. Good game to my opinion.

            A player has the right, not to bet at roulette.
            The wheel may not stop.

            If you want to have an idea about, stay at the bar for one day and watch all the panels.
            Some write down the numbers. This is allowed.

            SergeM

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: April 8, 2012, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

              SergeM,

              Yeah, by eight black in a row I meant the color black hitting  eight times consecutively.

              I know the European wheels don't have 0 and 00 but a biased wheel is still a biased wheel.

              I'm not sure how you mean roulette has a better payout than Pick 3, 35 to 1 as opposed to 500 or 600 to 1 straight or 290 to1 (depends on the state) striaght box or 40 to 1 box.

              American pit bosses watch panels like hawks. They get very concerned about dealers who can hit panels coinsistently when people are betting on the,m or start betting on them.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                Economy class
                Belgium
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                February 27, 2012
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                Posted: April 8, 2012, 8:11 pm - IP Logged

                SergeM,

                Yeah, by eight black in a row I meant the color black hitting  eight times consecutively.

                I know the European wheels don't have 0 and 00 but a biased wheel is still a biased wheel.

                I'm not sure how you mean roulette has a better payout than Pick 3, 35 to 1 as opposed to 500 or 600 to 1 straight or 290 to1 (depends on the state) striaght box or 40 to 1 box.

                American pit bosses watch panels like hawks. They get very concerned about dealers who can hit panels coinsistently when people are betting on the,m or start betting on them.

                Bank advantage! See Kelly criterion.

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                  New Jersey
                  United States
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                  October 18, 2010
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                  Posted: April 8, 2012, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

                  SergeM,

                  Yeah, by eight black in a row I meant the color black hitting  eight times consecutively.

                  I know the European wheels don't have 0 and 00 but a biased wheel is still a biased wheel.

                  I'm not sure how you mean roulette has a better payout than Pick 3, 35 to 1 as opposed to 500 or 600 to 1 straight or 290 to1 (depends on the state) striaght box or 40 to 1 box.

                  American pit bosses watch panels like hawks. They get very concerned about dealers who can hit panels coinsistently when people are betting on the,m or start betting on them.

                  Roulette has a better payout relative to odds, than pick 3 games generally do.

                   

                  Pick 3 odds are 1 in 1000, so the house edge on a payout of 500 for 1 is 50%.  600 for 1 is 40%.

                   

                  Roulette odds are 1 in 38 in American, and 1 in 37 in European roulette.  The edge is on American is 2/38=5.26% and European is 1/37=2.63%.

                   

                  That's a huge difference in edge.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
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                    January 17, 2006
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                    Posted: April 8, 2012, 9:33 pm - IP Logged

                    Boney526,

                    Better odds, yes, but SergeM said better payouts.

                    The house edge on almost all roulette bets is 5.26%, but odds and payouts are different.

                    The odds bets on craps on the Pass Line and Come bets (and Don't Pass and Don't come) are the ony bets in the entire casino that pay true odds, but you have to have the flat bet to take or lay odds.

                    The game of Faro was taken out of the casinos a long time ago because most of the game was an even money bet, didn't make much for the house.

                    The house makes money on not paying what they should pay.

                    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                    Lep

                    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                      SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
                      Economy class
                      Belgium
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                      Posted: April 9, 2012, 11:43 am - IP Logged

                      Roulette has a better payout relative to odds, than pick 3 games generally do.

                       

                      Pick 3 odds are 1 in 1000, so the house edge on a payout of 500 for 1 is 50%.  600 for 1 is 40%.

                       

                      Roulette odds are 1 in 38 in American, and 1 in 37 in European roulette.  The edge is on American is 2/38=5.26% and European is 1/37=2.63%.

                       

                      That's a huge difference in edge.

                      Pick 3 odds: 1:1000
                      Pick 3 payout: 500
                      Pick 3 result: 499
                      Edge = bank advantage = (1000 - 499)/1000 = 501/1000 = 50.1% not just 50%    // Help: 499 = 500 payout - 1 bet.

                      The fair payout would be 1000. There are 000 to 999 possible combinations, that equals to 1+999 = 1000. The payout is lousy compared to roulette!
                      For roulette you are allowed to keep your bet, unless you tip the dealer.

                      Edges:

                      Pick 3:                    50.1%    (1-499/1000) or (499/1000-1)
                      Roulette American:   5.26%    (1-36/38) or (36/38-1)
                      Roulette European:   2.27%    (1-36/37) or (36/37-1)

                      The calculation includes odds, means probability of guessing right, the payouts and the losses.
                      The same kind of calculation counts for lotteries, craps, blackjack or any other game.

                        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                        Zeta Reticuli Star System
                        United States
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                        Posted: April 9, 2012, 3:04 pm - IP Logged

                        Neither lotteries or casinos are in business to offer 'fair payouts'.

                        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                        Lep

                        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.