Which odds are better. Part 2.

Reply #16

Ronnie316 — Mon, 21 May 2012 21:04:28 GMT

As for being comfortable with 70k per year, how long do you plan on living? At a modest inflation rate of 2% today's 70k will be a little under 43k in 25 years. Dying the day after I take my last dollar out of the bank might happen, but my plan is to not die before running out of money. Since I don't plan on dying for at least 40 or 50 years my income has to be much more than my current needs before I retire.

I took all that into consideration when I said $70k is cool. My living expenses (in... [ More ]

Reply #15

Ronnie316 — Sat, 19 May 2012 14:53:29 GMT

If the real pay out on JP games is 20% why did you open your post saying the pay out is 50

Reply #14

Ronnie316 — Sat, 19 May 2012 14:48:25 GMT

So true Lucky, I'm virtually down to zero time spent picking numbers and when I do hit a JP it will be up to 10 weeks before I even know because thats how often I check my cards and buy new ones.

Reply #13

KY Floyd — Sat, 19 May 2012 06:27:23 GMT

If you want to know what gives you the best overall odds just look at what percentage of sales is returned in prizes. MM, PB, and most jackpot games pay out 50% of sales in prizes. Some scratch games pay out 60%.

If you want to start figuring a bunch of what if's or factoring in small prizes and the low chance of winning a really big prize, only you can decide what makes sense. Personally, figuring that the chances of winning a jackpot are extremely small, I consider the real pay out for most... [ More ]

Reply #12

Lucky Loser — Sat, 19 May 2012 04:26:11 GMT

Ronnie, I couldn't agree more on your points here. It's grossly beyond Lucky as to why so much time and effort is put into trying to precisely match 5/56, or, 5/59 with a 1/46 ball. Then, let's factor in those pre-draws which makes it even more interesting. Even without the pre-draws it's a trip to Mars just to attempt a perfect match up. My theory has always been that if a person has a really tough time matching numbers on even Pick3/4, then the jackpot games with substantially more numbers/com... [ More ]

Reply #11

Ronnie316 — Sat, 19 May 2012 01:09:18 GMT

I see your point Coin Toss, 5-10 hits are made on the $250k prize every draw. But that only means that 20+ million lines are being sold every draw, not that its easier to hit.

I think the state is competing with MM by having games that return 50% of revenues in prize money, part of the strategy is having a $500k prize at 4.8 million to $1 odds to compete with MM $250k prize at 3.9 million to $1 odds

When I say 4.8 million to $1 chance of hitting $500k on a scratcher, I have converted the

Reply #10

Coin Toss — Fri, 18 May 2012 21:56:56 GMT

Ronnie 316,

You said, Using megaplier increases prize BUT doubles the cost.

Granted it doubles the cost of a MM ticket but considering that doubled cost compared to a $20 scratcher the MM going for 5 + 0 might be a better shot. Also for the $20 you could take 10 $2 shots at the MM + Megaplier.

It's not uncommon for players to hit the 5 + 0. Some of those huge payout scratchers go unhit for quite a while.

Just my $.02

Reply #9

Ronnie316 — Fri, 18 May 2012 17:53:39 GMT

You just might be right Chris, as far as odds go.

A 1000 line bet ( $20. per line) would be a 10 to 1 chance of hitting $100k.

Does that sound correct?

If so they are paying out 50% of what they take in, which is the same *I thought) as they do on the scratchers.

Reply #8

rcbbuckeye — Fri, 18 May 2012 16:40:00 GMT

I like playing P4 for this reason. Except..... $100000 isn't enough to get out of debt (for me anyway), so tossing $20 at it is a little much, and there are no smaller prizes to win on P4 unless you play side bets such as front pair, mid pair, or back pair, sum bets, etc. Frankly, those side bets are a waste of money.

While I always have at least a dollar on all Texas's jackpot games, I frequently play $2 straight on Daily 4 for a shot at $10000. That will cover next year's property taxes and... [ More ]

Reply #7

ChrisH — Fri, 18 May 2012 16:16:41 GMT

Wouldn't the Pick-4 be better ?

$20 on a 1 in 10,000 chance would be $100,000 .... (at least in PA).

Reply #6

Ronnie316 — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:45:02 GMT

Thanks Rjoh,

My idea is to sacrifice the chance of JP in exchange for better odds of making a smaller strike. I'm of the conclusion that LUCK is the only stratagy for hitting the JP.

Reply #5

Ronnie316 — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:39:16 GMT

Very wise goal meetoo,

Most people don't realize that 2 million (invested) will provide a comfortable income. I would be very happy with $70k per year after taxes. It wont get me the house next to Tiger Woods or the boat out back, but we have to start somewhere right??

Great idea keeping the old tickets, even if only for offsetting wins on taxes.

Reply #4

Ronnie316 — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:29:28 GMT

Thanks Coin Toss,

Using megaplier increases prize BUT doubles the cost. Back to square one as far as odds go.

Example: (round numbers) 1000 scratchers = 240 to 1 chance of hitting $500k

10,000 lines ($2 per line w/megapier) = 390 to 1 chance of hitting $1 million

20,000 lines (without megaplier) = 195 to 1 of hitting $250k

One $500k is distributed per 240,000 tickets printed. The grand total is 5 and I think they are fairly good at keeping one in circulation throughout the game. T... [ More ]

Reply #3

RJOh — Fri, 18 May 2012 05:30:14 GMT

Many state have local games of 6of47 to 6of49 with jackpots of $10M+ with odds of 1/11M to 1/14M, but that's a little over kill if your target is only $1M.

Reply #2

meetoo — Fri, 18 May 2012 05:13:51 GMT

Excellent question Ronnie. I have a personal goal of acquiring at least two million dollors so I would lean towards MM, PB or state lotteries with very good odds. Winning 500k however would be sweet and let's not forget that some scratchers tickets can be entered into another drawing for a chance to win a nice jackpot. You may want to be sure and save those losing scratcher's. I'm not familar with your state rules and regulations. I'd be interested in hearing the results.

Reply #1

Coin Toss — Fri, 18 May 2012 04:48:02 GMT

How about going for the MM with the Megaplier? Then the $250,000 is $1,000,000 but the same odds as the $250,000.

With the MM + Megaplier, if won, each dollar wins $500,000.

With the AZ Extreme Green $20 ticket, if won each dollar wins $25,000.

Also, with the scratchers, how many $500,000 winners are out there?

Good Luck either way.

Which odds are better. Part 2.

Ronnie316 — Thu, 17 May 2012 23:17:31 GMT

I'm looking for my best OVERALL odds of coming out ahead on a large bet.

MM, where odds of hitting $250k are 3.9 million to $1.

or

Scratcher, where odds of hitting $500k are 4.8 million to $1. (AZ. $20. Extreme Green)

Yes, there is no chance of hitting the big jackpot prize with a scratcher AND odds of hitting $10k on MM are better at 689,000 to $1 compared to scratcher at 1.2 million to $1

But, scratcher has some $20k $5k and $1k prizes thrown in that MM does not have.

And, w... [ More ]