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Which odds are better. Part 2.

Topic closed. 16 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Ronnie316.

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Posted: May 17, 2012, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

I'm looking for my best OVERALL odds of coming out ahead on a large bet.

MM, where odds of hitting $250k are 3.9 million to $1.

                                or

Scratcher, where odds of hitting $500k are 4.8 million to $1. (AZ. $20. Extreme Green)

Yes, there is no chance of hitting the big jackpot prize with a scratcher AND odds of hitting $10k on MM are better at 689,000 to $1 compared to scratcher at 1.2 million to $1

But, scratcher has some $20k $5k and $1k prizes thrown in that MM does not have.

And, with a scratcher I dont have to "pick" anything except where to buy them.

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    Posted: May 18, 2012, 12:48 am - IP Logged

    How about going for the MM with the Megaplier? Then the $250,000 is $1,000,000 but the same odds as the $250,000.

    With the MM + Megaplier, if won, each dollar wins $500,000.

    With the AZ Extreme Green $20 ticket, if won each dollar wins $25,000.

    Also, with the scratchers, how many $500,000 winners are out there?

    Good Luck either way.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      meetoo's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
      Indiana
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      Posted: May 18, 2012, 1:13 am - IP Logged

      I'm looking for my best OVERALL odds of coming out ahead on a large bet.

      MM, where odds of hitting $250k are 3.9 million to $1.

                                      or

      Scratcher, where odds of hitting $500k are 4.8 million to $1. (AZ. $20. Extreme Green)

      Yes, there is no chance of hitting the big jackpot prize with a scratcher AND odds of hitting $10k on MM are better at 689,000 to $1 compared to scratcher at 1.2 million to $1

      But, scratcher has some $20k $5k and $1k prizes thrown in that MM does not have.

      And, with a scratcher I dont have to "pick" anything except where to buy them.

      Excellent question Ronnie. I have a personal goal of acquiring at least two million dollors so I would lean towards MM, PB or state lotteries with very good odds. Winning 500k however would be sweet and let's not forget that some scratchers tickets can be entered into another drawing for a chance to win a nice jackpot. You may want to be sure and save those losing scratcher's. I'm not familar with your state rules and regulations. I'd be interested in hearing the results.

      May You Prosper and be in Health!

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: May 18, 2012, 1:30 am - IP Logged

        Many state have local games of 6of47 to 6of49 with jackpots of $10M+ with odds of 1/11M to 1/14M, but that's a little over kill if your target is only $1M.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       


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          Posted: May 18, 2012, 11:29 am - IP Logged

          How about going for the MM with the Megaplier? Then the $250,000 is $1,000,000 but the same odds as the $250,000.

          With the MM + Megaplier, if won, each dollar wins $500,000.

          With the AZ Extreme Green $20 ticket, if won each dollar wins $25,000.

          Also, with the scratchers, how many $500,000 winners are out there?

          Good Luck either way.

          Thanks Coin Toss,

          Using megaplier increases prize BUT doubles the cost. Back to square one as far as odds go.

          Example: (round numbers) 1000 scratchers = 240 to 1 chance of hitting $500k

          10,000 lines ($2 per line w/megapier) = 390 to 1 chance of hitting $1 million

          20,000 lines (without megaplier) = 195 to 1 of hitting $250k

          One $500k is distributed per 240,000 tickets printed. The grand total is 5 and I think they are fairly good at keeping one in circulation throughout the game. This game is a month old and one $500k has been redeemed so far.


            United States
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            Posted: May 18, 2012, 11:39 am - IP Logged

            Excellent question Ronnie. I have a personal goal of acquiring at least two million dollors so I would lean towards MM, PB or state lotteries with very good odds. Winning 500k however would be sweet and let's not forget that some scratchers tickets can be entered into another drawing for a chance to win a nice jackpot. You may want to be sure and save those losing scratcher's. I'm not familar with your state rules and regulations. I'd be interested in hearing the results.

            Very wise goal meetoo,

            Most people don't realize that 2 million (invested) will provide a comfortable income. I would be very happy with $70k per year after taxes. It wont get me the house next to Tiger Woods or the boat out back, but we have to start somewhere right??

            Great idea keeping the old tickets, even if only for offsetting wins on taxes.


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              Posted: May 18, 2012, 11:45 am - IP Logged

              Many state have local games of 6of47 to 6of49 with jackpots of $10M+ with odds of 1/11M to 1/14M, but that's a little over kill if your target is only $1M.

              Thanks Rjoh,

              My idea is to sacrifice the chance of JP in exchange for better odds of making a smaller strike. I'm of the conclusion that LUCK is the only stratagy for hitting the JP.

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                Posted: May 18, 2012, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

                Wouldn't the Pick-4 be better ?

                $20 on a 1 in 10,000 chance would be $100,000 .... (at least in PA).

                  rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                  Texas
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                  Posted: May 18, 2012, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

                  Wouldn't the Pick-4 be better ?

                  $20 on a 1 in 10,000 chance would be $100,000 .... (at least in PA).

                  I like playing P4 for this reason. Except..... $100000 isn't enough to get out of debt (for me anyway), so tossing $20 at it is a little much, and there are no smaller prizes to win on P4 unless you play side bets such as front pair, mid pair, or back pair, sum bets, etc. Frankly, those side bets are a waste of money.

                  While I always have at least a dollar on all Texas's jackpot games, I frequently play $2 straight on Daily 4 for a shot at $10000. That will cover next year's property taxes and provide some college $ for the kids.

                  CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                  A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)


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                    Posted: May 18, 2012, 1:53 pm - IP Logged

                    Wouldn't the Pick-4 be better ?

                    $20 on a 1 in 10,000 chance would be $100,000 .... (at least in PA).

                    You just might be right Chris, as far as odds go.

                    A 1000 line bet ( $20. per line) would be a 10 to 1 chance of hitting $100k.

                    Does that sound correct?

                    If so they are paying out 50% of what they take in, which is the same *I thought) as they do on the scratchers.

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: May 18, 2012, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                      Ronnie 316,

                      You said, "Using megaplier increases prize BUT doubles the cost."

                      Granted it doubles the cost of a MM ticket but considering that doubled cost compared to a $20 scratcher the MM going for 5 + 0 might be a better shot. Also for the $20 you could take 10 $2 shots at the MM + Megaplier.

                      It's not uncommon for players to hit the 5 + 0. Some of those huge payout scratchers go unhit for quite a while. 

                      Just my $.02

                      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                      Lep

                      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.


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                        Posted: May 18, 2012, 9:09 pm - IP Logged

                        Ronnie 316,

                        You said, "Using megaplier increases prize BUT doubles the cost."

                        Granted it doubles the cost of a MM ticket but considering that doubled cost compared to a $20 scratcher the MM going for 5 + 0 might be a better shot. Also for the $20 you could take 10 $2 shots at the MM + Megaplier.

                        It's not uncommon for players to hit the 5 + 0. Some of those huge payout scratchers go unhit for quite a while. 

                        Just my $.02

                        I see your point Coin Toss, 5-10 hits are made on the $250k prize every draw. But that only means that 20+ million lines are being sold every draw, not that its easier to hit.

                        I think the state is competing with MM by having games that return 50% of revenues in prize money, part of the strategy is having a $500k prize at 4.8 million to $1 odds to compete with MM $250k prize at 3.9 million to $1 odds

                        When I say 4.8 million to $1 chance of hitting $500k on a scratcher, I have converted the $20. price of a ticket into odds per $1. spent.

                        When you convert the $2 MM price of megalpier ticket, the odds become 7.8 million to $1 for hitting the $1 million prize.

                        It is no surprise that the odds get higher and higher as the prize gets bigger, that's why I'm trying to focus on a smaller prize that also has lots and lots of consolation prizes that MM does not have. Including $20k $10k $5k $1k

                        Yes, it is 4-8 weeks between hits on the $500k but that's because it takes that long to sell 240,000 tickets. It doesn't change the odds, just the time frame between hits. I'm sure the AZ Lottery would love to have the demand for 240,000 tickets twice a week but that wont happen.

                        They do have a raffle once a year for a single $1 million prize in 300,000 ($20) tickets.

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
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                          Posted: May 19, 2012, 12:26 am - IP Logged

                          Thanks Rjoh,

                          My idea is to sacrifice the chance of JP in exchange for better odds of making a smaller strike. I'm of the conclusion that LUCK is the only stratagy for hitting the JP.

                          Ronnie, I couldn't agree more on your points here. It's grossly beyond Lucky as to why so much time and effort is put into trying to precisely match 5/56, or, 5/59 with a 1/46 ball.What? Then, let's factor in those pre-draws which makes it even more interesting. Even without the pre-draws it's a trip to Mars just to attempt a perfect match up. My theory has always been that if a person has a really tough time matching numbers on even Pick3/4, then the jackpot games with substantially more numbers/combinations shouldn't even be attempted.

                          Just purchase QP's like most others do...and win. We're talkin' about a 3/10 game versus the 5/56 game here. This isn't an attack on anyone's skills or anything of the like. However, the numbers are just to great for even a Master Mathematician to try and put together perfectly for a win...and the jackpot games are essentially BOXED games. Just get all the numbers on the same line in any order. No str8 needed here.

                          On another note, if it were as easy as just getting all the numbers on a single $5 ticket on any lines, I would've been a millionaire years ago. Yeah, Luck is the only "stragety" here (Bugs Bunny).

                          L.L.

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                            Posted: May 19, 2012, 2:27 am - IP Logged

                            If you want to know what gives you the best overall odds just look at what percentage of sales is returned in prizes. MM, PB, and most jackpot games pay out 50% of sales in prizes.  Some scratch games pay out 60%.

                            If you want to start figuring a bunch of "what if's" or factoring in small prizes and the low chance of winning a really big prize, only you can decide what makes sense. Personally, figuring that the chances of winning a jackpot are extremely small, I consider the real pay out for most jackpot games to be closer to 20% than to 50%. OTOH, while winning 50, 100, or 250 thousand would be very nice, that's not going to let you retire and spend the rest of your life on easy street unless you're already at least 90% complete with a solid retirement plan.

                            As for being comfortable with 70k per year, how long do you plan on living? At a modest inflation rate of 2% today's 70k will be a little under 43k in 25 years. Dying the day after I take my last dollar out of the bank might happen, but my plan is to not die before running out of money. Since I don't plan on dying for at least 40 or 50 years my income has to be much more than my current needs before I retire.


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                              Posted: May 19, 2012, 10:48 am - IP Logged

                              Ronnie, I couldn't agree more on your points here. It's grossly beyond Lucky as to why so much time and effort is put into trying to precisely match 5/56, or, 5/59 with a 1/46 ball.What? Then, let's factor in those pre-draws which makes it even more interesting. Even without the pre-draws it's a trip to Mars just to attempt a perfect match up. My theory has always been that if a person has a really tough time matching numbers on even Pick3/4, then the jackpot games with substantially more numbers/combinations shouldn't even be attempted.

                              Just purchase QP's like most others do...and win. We're talkin' about a 3/10 game versus the 5/56 game here. This isn't an attack on anyone's skills or anything of the like. However, the numbers are just to great for even a Master Mathematician to try and put together perfectly for a win...and the jackpot games are essentially BOXED games. Just get all the numbers on the same line in any order. No str8 needed here.

                              On another note, if it were as easy as just getting all the numbers on a single $5 ticket on any lines, I would've been a millionaire years ago. Yeah, Luck is the only "stragety" here (Bugs Bunny).

                              L.L.

                              So true Lucky, I'm virtually down to zero time spent picking numbers and when I do hit a JP it will be up to 10 weeks before I even know because thats how often I check my cards and buy new ones.