PB California - Did they do the math right?

Reply #38

Stack47 — Sun, 19 May 2013 17:42:04 GMT

California paid out 16.1% of their total sales to 769,585 secondary prize winners. Only 2 (the 5 + 0 winners) of the 769,585 winning tickets won more than the same type of prize winnings won in other states and the other 769,583 won less. 435,645 of those tickets beat odds of 55 to 1 to win a buck and another 227,540 tickets beat odds of 111 to 1 to win a buck.

The real complaint should be about all the California secondary prizes and not just the 5 + 0.

Reply #37

ryanm — Sun, 19 May 2013 15:14:41 GMT

For those who complained about California's second place PB prizes being too low compared to the other states, it was the opposite last night (5/18/13): the two California 5+0 winners each won $2.3 million dollars. As for the other states, they are probably doing the happy dance, because total sales should have supported 45 5+0 winners, or 40 5+0 winners without the California sales, and there were 33 5+0 winners outside of California, so the other states made an extra profit of over $7 million... [ More ]

Reply #36

noise-gate — Fri, 17 May 2013 00:01:19 GMT

Whiteballz you quoted...

If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished the same exact thing you did in matching 5 numbers and they get at least a million? I would feel short changed, I paid $2 for my ticket and matched 5 numbers the same as the winners from New York but I get 256k and the people from New York get a million.

What you fail to... [ More ]

Reply #35

yoho — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:55:15 GMT

Now it just sounds like you realized you're wrong, so you desperately bring in red herring to try to save face. Don't you think that's a little...

I never claimed that the calculation gives the actual prize value. That's why it's called an AVERAGE, and not actual value . The OP was asking whether

CA lottery did their math correct, and that whether ON AVERAGE, 2nd place winners will receive around 1 million. So I just showed that; the math to find

the average. You claimed that my ma... [ More ]

Reply #34

Jon D — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:26:12 GMT

The real world is slightly more nuanced than the basic math. You are dealing with diversity of numbers and coverage, personal picks (overlap) and expected sales for the target market. The 9.7% is the percent of revenue reserved for that prize tier, and that does match the theoretical prize value. But it is not the same as the actual prize value per draw as realized in the real world.

Reply #33

whiteballz — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:12:16 GMT

that's great, someone says something negative about how the california lottery commission is currently running PB and they must have an entitlement mentality. Makes sense to me....

Reply #32

yoho — Thu, 16 May 2013 23:05:05 GMT

No, it's VERY illuminating .

The assumption is to make it easier to read, you can do without it. Let x be the number of tickets bought for a particular draw in CA.

Total revenue = 2x

Total number of 2nd place winning tickets = x / 5,153,632.65

Total prize amount avaliable for 2nd place tickets = 2x * 9.7% = 0.194x

Total prize amount per 2nd place winning ticket = 0.194x / (x / 5,153,632.65) = (5,153,632.65 * 0.194)x / x = 5,153,632.65 * 0.194 = 999804.7341.

N... [ More ]

Reply #31

Jon D — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:57:30 GMT

The same lotto games pay differently in different states, 5/39, 6/49, etc. I understand that. Also some states have different rules on casino gambling for the same table games, and some have no gambling or lottery at all. The states have the right to their own rules that aren't pushed down from a national/federal directive.

I try not to have an entitlement mentality, so I don't think someone owe's me something I don't yet have. You play by the rules of the game until you can change the rules,... [ More ]

Reply #30

whiteballz — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:41:48 GMT

For all the other states, the 5 + 0 winners are guaranteed atleast a million dollars. If I ever get 5 +0 I'd for d*** sure want at least a million and don't post that guy with the 1.3 million check again. He's the one guy who got over a million, every other second prize winner got less than a million.

If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished... [ More ]

Reply #29

ryanm — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:40:06 GMT

I don't think it's THAT unfair if a California player wins the PB jackpot, because the state joined in the third draw of the current run, so it's really only two draws of fourteen where they didn't contribute to the jackpot. Now, if a single Florida player wins Mega Millions tomorrow night, that's REALLY unfair to the other states, because this would be the only draw of nineteen where the Florida lottery contributed to the pot.

Reply #28

Jon D — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:31:13 GMT

Maybe you better check your pre-school math.

Making the assumption in your calculation that sales=odds overly simplifies things, not very illuminating, sorry.

Reply #27

Jon D — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:07:30 GMT

California is pari-mutuel for ALL draw prizes, just like most state lotto top prizes and Mega Millions and Powerball top prizes are ALL pari-mutuel. It is based on a percentage of sales, it rolls over, it is split amongst multiple winners, and the amount varies widely from draw to draw. I just don't get this manufactured outrage at pari-mutuel.

As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above. In fact hardly ever see any in the news except an occasional criminal they are... [ More ]

Reply #26

yoho — Thu, 16 May 2013 22:05:19 GMT

Actually this question is EXTREMELY easy to answer, no uber-geeky multivariable calculus, nothing. Just very simple pre-school math.

You guys found out that CA pays 9.7% of the revenue to the 2nd place prize. That's already half the work.

The other half I'll do for you guys: Wikipedia powerball . According to wikipedia, the odds of winning the 2nd place prize is 1 in 5,153,632.65.

That's all you need. On average, about 1 in 5 million tickets will win a prize. So let's sa... [ More ]

Reply #25

whiteballz — Thu, 16 May 2013 21:43:13 GMT

I love the california lottery commission. Pari-mutuel second prize payouts and if you don't claim the jackpot one month after the drawing, they plaster surveillance pictures of you all over the evening news.

Reply #24

noise-gate — Thu, 16 May 2013 21:28:23 GMT

Jk- Californians have waited for years for PB to get to the State, this is not our first rodeo.The mere fact that 5 Californians got 2nd place- the Lion's share of the jackpot speaks volumes. It would have been 6 with my win but that was not to be. Next time perhaps.

Maybe the topic of the 2nd place payout will be discussed in the near future but for now. ...its a..

Enjoy.

Reply #23

JKING — Thu, 16 May 2013 21:08:51 GMT

How would you know they are not complaining? I'll bet they have not even claimed thier tickets, been interviewed or are even aware of the additional $750k they would have gotten from the other states.

Maybe turn around bus tours to buy Powerball tickets in other states is the answer. *L

Reply #22

noise-gate — Thu, 16 May 2013 20:27:47 GMT

Right now the PB jackpot is sitting at over half a billion- California had 5 2nd place winners and none of them are complaining. If a single Californian won the PB- some people would complain.

Reply #21

maelstrom — Thu, 16 May 2013 14:44:42 GMT

On the next mega millions draw if there is a single 5/5 winner they stand to win about 1.1 million. That would be a very nice 4x standard payout, the amount rolled over is $877k.

Reply #20

JKING — Thu, 16 May 2013 12:45:25 GMT

Can Arizona sell powerball tickets in California? *L

Reply #19

maringoman — Thu, 16 May 2013 11:53:54 GMT

In last nights drawing, the 6 Californians who hit the second prize will get only $256,317 while the rest 22 winners from other states will get $1M and two of those will get $2M. To the Californians, that knowledge must hurt like hell.

Reply #18

RJOh — Tue, 14 May 2013 03:41:35 GMT

Maybe California is the only state that did the math, the rest were willing to accept less of a bigger pie.

After all, before states like Ohio added PB, they weren't getting any of the pie and players from Ohio were contributing to the pie by buying tickets in neighboring states.

Reply #17

JKING — Tue, 14 May 2013 02:53:30 GMT

maelstrom,

The results you posted are no suprise at all, I would be very suprised if the amount of million dollar plus winners would ever come close to those who recieve far less than the standard million dollar prize. We will see how it goes. So far nine people have been shorted while one has recieved a marginally bet than average payback. Hmmmmm....

JonD,

Yes, it needs to be beaten more until it changes to what the lottery customers want. To be treated equally across the board. Imagin... [ More ]

Reply #16

whiteballz — Mon, 13 May 2013 12:20:45 GMT

so the topics that are up for discussion are things we can control and if it's not in our control then the topic is off limits? You just started a new thread on if you see your ex coming after you. How can you control if your ex comes after you or not? Your ex may be completely irrational and whether or not they come after you is beyond your control. If we restrict the topics to things in our control, then this message board would pretty much be empty.

Reply #15

Jon D — Mon, 13 May 2013 12:11:36 GMT

I don't think their goal was to fine tune the percentage to deliver a $1,000,000 2nd prize payment. You can't really do that. All they did was copy the prize share percentage of 9.7% from another state. So that just means that the cumulative percent of revenue paid out on 2nd prize tier would be the same.

With CA pari-mutuel PB, sometimes 2nd prize will be higher than $1M, sometimes it will be lower. And the prize value rolls over and is always paid out, unlike fixed prizes which do not roll... [ More ]

Reply #14

gogidolim — Mon, 13 May 2013 05:38:23 GMT

Not my fault.

Reply #13

noise-gate — Mon, 13 May 2013 01:45:38 GMT

That's funny, you seem to start a topic almost every day asking people what they would do if they won. Now you are saying you should win the jackpot FIRST or there is no conversation to begin with.

No- This question is beyond your and my control, why? because it has been decided by the Powers that be, namely the Californian Lottery Committee on how the pay structure will be for the Californian lottery games, there is nothing you or l can say that will change that.When we have a for and... [ More ]

Reply #12

whiteballz — Mon, 13 May 2013 01:29:13 GMT

This is a DOA issue and will amount to nothing. What is important is Winning the Jackpot FIRST.If you cannot do that, there is no conversation on first or second place to begin with.

Win first.

That's funny, you seem to start a topic almost every day asking people what they would do if they won. Now you are saying you should win the jackpot FIRST or there is no conversation to begin with.

Reply #11

maelstrom — Mon, 13 May 2013 00:08:41 GMT

BUt my original question is whether the math is right. What is the expected long term average for what 2nd prize will pay? I know along the way some will get more some less. I am not a communist! It is ok with me if different people get different results. Such is life.

Reply #10

noise-gate — Sun, 12 May 2013 23:51:08 GMT

Whiteballz- l don't care what the other States are paying out neither do the majority of Californians. In order for this to make much sense, we need to read of 2nd place jackpot winners from California complaining about the amount they should have won- thing is: we don't, reason being people are happy to have won something in the first place.

This is a DOA issue and will amount to nothing. What is important is Winning the Jackpot FIRST.If you cannot do that, there is no conversation on first... [ More ]

Reply #9

whiteballz — Sun, 12 May 2013 23:37:13 GMT

you mention the one guy who got over a million dollars. He is the exception not the rule. What about the 9 other people who got less than a million?

As fja correctly pointed out, the average payout for 5 + 0 in California is $642,816.

Don't get me wrong, $642,816 is nothing to sneeze at but matching 5 without the PB is most likely a once in a life time event and in my opinion deserves at least a million dollar prize. In all the other states, a million dollars for 5 + 0 is guaranteed but in... [ More ]

Reply #8

noise-gate — Sun, 12 May 2013 23:21:39 GMT

Whiteballz- This issue has been touched on before.However...

April 15th-2013.

A winning Powerball ticket worth $1.3 million was sold in Buena Park, making California s first foray into the massively popular lottery game well worth it for someone in Orange County.

The winning ticket was sold at 17 Food Store located at 6522 Stanton Ave., according to theCalifornia Lottery s website. It matches 5 of the winning numbers chosen during Saturday s drawing for a $70 million jackpot.

Reply #7

whiteballz — Sun, 12 May 2013 20:47:12 GMT

nice chart. Can you please put up the numbers for Delaware, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Washington? None of those states tax lottery winnings just like California but unlike California, any 5 + 0 winner in those states is guaranteed a million dollars.

Reply #6

noise-gate — Sun, 12 May 2013 19:49:47 GMT

Arkansas's Payout on the same Powerball at this stage compared to California would be a whooping $15,596,000 LESS..

How about them Apples

Reply #5

noise-gate — Sun, 12 May 2013 19:40:31 GMT

How about this for curiosity? Look at the TOTAL amount after taxes from these States and compare to California...

Arizona: 5% State Tax for In-State Residents - $583,333

- $11,140,000

Your average net per year: $8,166,667 Your net payout: $155,960,000

After 30 payments: $245,000,010

Annuity Payment Schedule

Non-Arizona Residents: 6% State Tax - $700,000

- $13,368,000

Your average net per year: $8,050,000 Your net payout: $153,732,000

Reply #4

rdgrnr — Sun, 12 May 2013 17:03:03 GMT

Californians pay for their sins one way or another.

There is a price to be paid for foisting Charlie Sheen upon an innocent nation.

Reply #3

fja — Sun, 12 May 2013 16:49:11 GMT

Average pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize PB ticket in Cali. is $642,816 all other states $1,000,000

Averge pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize MM ticket in Cali. is $209, 068 all other states $ 250,000

Reply #2

maelstrom — Sun, 12 May 2013 09:56:26 GMT

I got this from one of the threads you posted - This is what I wanted to know - the percentage that went into the 2nd prize. Thanks Jon D. And we say geek in the most flattering way possible.

Complete Cali PB prize pool share below:

Prize Percent

5 + PB 29.98%

5 + 0 9.70%

4 + PB 0.77%

4 + 0 0.26%

3 + PB 0.41%

3 + 0 0.97%

2 + PB 0.50%

1 + PB 1.80%

PB 3.61%

reserve 2.00%

Total 50.00

Reply #1

Jon D — Sun, 12 May 2013 09:16:45 GMT

Can't answer you without being labelled a geek.

Why don't you try reading some previous threads on this subject, which has been beaten to death:

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/259257

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/259638

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/260140

PB California - Did they do the math right?

maelstrom — Sun, 12 May 2013 06:22:46 GMT

I'm curious about the 5/5 prize for the paramutuel payout in CA and I know we still have a low number of draws to base any conclusions on but did they get their math right? I thought that they set the game up to closely mimick the results from the states that use the standard payouts. Are they putting enough money from each ticket into the 5/5 prize pool so that over time we will see an average payout at the 1 million level? So far it doesn't look like it, but maybe CA players have just been on... [ More ]