PB California - Did they do the math right?Prev TopicNext Topic

• maelstrom

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  May 12, 2013, 2:22 am

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  I'm curious about the 5/5 prize for the paramutuel payout in CA and  I know we still have a low number of draws to base any conclusions on but did they get their math right?  I thought that they set the game up to closely mimick the results from the states that use the standard payouts.  Are they putting enough money from each ticket into the 5/5 prize pool so that over time we will see an average payout at the 1 million level? So far it doesn't look like it, but maybe CA players have just been on a hot streak and hit the 5/5 more than expected in the first 10 draws. Do we have any math geeks who know the answer.

  Here is what the 10 winners of 5/5  got paid so far in CA:

  1,306,323

  501,893

  501,893

  280,630

  280,630

  917,856

  917,856

  573,694

  573,694

  573,694

   

  W
• Jon D

  

  Los Angeles, California
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  May 12, 2013, 5:16 am

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  Can't answer you without being labelled a geek.

  Why don't you try reading some previous threads on this subject, which has been beaten to death:

  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/259257

  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/259638

  https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/260140
• maelstrom

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  May 12, 2013, 5:56 am

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  I got this from one of the threads you posted - This is what I wanted to know - the percentage that went into the 2nd prize.  Thanks Jon D.  And we say geek in the most flattering way possible.

   

  Complete Cali PB prize pool share below:

  Prize	Percent
  5 + PB	29.98%
  5 + 0	9.70%
  4 + PB	0.77%
  4 + 0	0.26%
  3 + PB	0.41%
  3 + 0	0.97%
  2 + PB	0.50%
  1 + PB	1.80%
  PB	3.61%
  reserve	2.00%
  Total	50.00%
• fja

  

  100

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  May 12, 2013, 12:49 pm

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  Average pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize PB ticket in Cali. is $642,816  all other states $1,000,000

  Averge pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize MM ticket in Cali. is $209, 068 all other states $ 250,000

  "Everybody has to believe in something...I believe I'll have another beer!"   = W.C.Fields 
• rdgrnr

  

  100

  The Hall Of The Mountain Kings Tennessee
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  May 12, 2013, 1:03 pm

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  In response to fja

  Quote: Originally posted by fja on May 12, 2013

  Average pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize PB ticket in Cali. is $642,816  all other states $1,000,000

  Averge pay out so far from a winning 2nd prize MM ticket in Cali. is $209, 068 all other states $ 250,000

  Californians pay for their sins one way or another.

  There is a price to be paid for foisting Charlie Sheen upon an innocent nation.
• noise-gate

  

  * In hot pursuit of $ *

  White Shores- California
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  May 12, 2013, 3:40 pm

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  In response to maelstrom

  Quote: Originally posted by maelstrom on May 12, 2013

  I'm curious about the 5/5 prize for the paramutuel payout in CA and  I know we still have a low number of draws to base any conclusions on but did they get their math right?  I thought that they set the game up to closely mimick the results from the states that use the standard payouts.  Are they putting enough money from each ticket into the 5/5 prize pool so that over time we will see an average payout at the 1 million level? So far it doesn't look like it, but maybe CA players have just been on a hot streak and hit the 5/5 more than expected in the first 10 draws. Do we have any math geeks who know the answer.

  Here is what the 10 winners of 5/5  got paid so far in CA:

  1,306,323

  501,893

  501,893

  280,630

  280,630

  917,856

  917,856

  573,694

  573,694

  573,694

   

  W

  How about this for curiosity? Look at the TOTAL amount after  taxes from these States and compare to California...

  Arizona: 5% State Tax for In-State Residents - $583,333	- $11,140,000
  Your average net per year: $8,166,667	Your net payout: $155,960,000
  After 30 payments: $245,000,010
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Non-Arizona Residents: 6% State Tax - $700,000	- $13,368,000
  Your average net per year: $8,050,000	Your net payout: $153,732,000
  After 30 payments: $241,500,000
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Arkansas: 7% State Tax - $816,667	- $15,596,000
  Your average net per year: $7,933,333	Your net payout: $151,504,000
  After 30 payments: $237,999,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  California: No State Tax on Lottery Prizes!
  Your average net per year: $8,750,000	Your net payout: $167,100,000
  After 30 payments: $262,500,000
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Colorado: 4% State Tax - $466,667	- $8,912,000
  Your average net per year: $8,283,333	Your net payout: $158,188,000
  After 30 payments: $248,499,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Connecticut: 6.7% State Tax - $781,667	- $14,927,600
  Your average net per year: $7,968,333	Your net payout: $152,172,400
  After 30 payments: $239,049,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule

   The above: Courtesy of USAMEGA.

   

  Then ask yourself...whose being S C R E W E D?
• noise-gate

  

  * In hot pursuit of $ *

  White Shores- California
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  May 12, 2013, 3:49 pm

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   Arkansas's Payout on the same Powerball at this stage compared to California would be a whooping $15,596,000 LESS..

  How about them Apples?
• whiteballz

  

  Nutley, New Jersey
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  May 12, 2013, 4:47 pm

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  In response to noise-gate

  Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on May 12, 2013

  How about this for curiosity? Look at the TOTAL amount after  taxes from these States and compare to California...

  Arizona: 5% State Tax for In-State Residents - $583,333	- $11,140,000
  Your average net per year: $8,166,667	Your net payout: $155,960,000
  After 30 payments: $245,000,010
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Non-Arizona Residents: 6% State Tax - $700,000	- $13,368,000
  Your average net per year: $8,050,000	Your net payout: $153,732,000
  After 30 payments: $241,500,000
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Arkansas: 7% State Tax - $816,667	- $15,596,000
  Your average net per year: $7,933,333	Your net payout: $151,504,000
  After 30 payments: $237,999,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  California: No State Tax on Lottery Prizes!
  Your average net per year: $8,750,000	Your net payout: $167,100,000
  After 30 payments: $262,500,000
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Colorado: 4% State Tax - $466,667	- $8,912,000
  Your average net per year: $8,283,333	Your net payout: $158,188,000
  After 30 payments: $248,499,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule
  Connecticut: 6.7% State Tax - $781,667	- $14,927,600
  Your average net per year: $7,968,333	Your net payout: $152,172,400
  After 30 payments: $239,049,990
  Annuity Payment Schedule

   The above: Courtesy of USAMEGA.

   

  Then ask yourself...whose being S C R E W E D?

  nice chart. Can you please put up the numbers for Delaware, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Washington? None of those states tax lottery winnings just like California but unlike California, any 5 + 0 winner in those states is guaranteed a million dollars.

  .
• noise-gate

  

  * In hot pursuit of $ *

  White Shores- California
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  May 12, 2013, 7:21 pm

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  Whiteballz- This issue has been touched on before.However...

   

  April 15th-2013.

  A winning Powerball ticket worth $1.3 million was sold in Buena Park, making California’s first foray into the massively popular lottery game well worth it for someone in Orange County.

  The winning ticket was sold at 17 Food Store located at 6522 Stanton Ave., according to theCalifornia Lottery’s website. It matches 5 of the winning numbers chosen during Saturday’s drawing for a $70 million jackpot.

   

  Which OTHER State  apart from CA pays out more than $1,000,000 for 2nd place- pray tell?
• whiteballz

  

  Nutley, New Jersey
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  May 12, 2013, 7:37 pm

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  In response to noise-gate

  Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on May 12, 2013

  Whiteballz- This issue has been touched on before.However...

   

  April 15th-2013.

  A winning Powerball ticket worth $1.3 million was sold in Buena Park, making California’s first foray into the massively popular lottery game well worth it for someone in Orange County.

  The winning ticket was sold at 17 Food Store located at 6522 Stanton Ave., according to theCalifornia Lottery’s website. It matches 5 of the winning numbers chosen during Saturday’s drawing for a $70 million jackpot.

   

  Which OTHER State  apart from CA pays out more than $1,000,000 for 2nd place- pray tell?

  you mention the one guy who got over a million dollars. He is the exception not the rule. What about the 9 other people who got less than a million?

  As fja correctly pointed out, the average payout for 5 + 0 in California is $642,816.

  Don't get me wrong, $642,816 is nothing to sneeze at but matching 5 without the PB is most likely a once in a life time event and in my opinion deserves at least a million dollar prize. In all the other states, a million dollars for 5 + 0 is guaranteed but in California, it's a maybe.

  .
• noise-gate

  

  * In hot pursuit of $ *

  White Shores- California
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  May 12, 2013, 7:51 pm

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  In response to whiteballz

  Quote: Originally posted by whiteballz on May 12, 2013

  you mention the one guy who got over a million dollars. He is the exception not the rule. What about the 9 other people who got less than a million?

  As fja correctly pointed out, the average payout for 5 + 0 in California is $642,816.

  Don't get me wrong, $642,816 is nothing to sneeze at but matching 5 without the PB is most likely a once in a life time event and in my opinion deserves at least a million dollar prize. In all the other states, a million dollars for 5 + 0 is guaranteed but in California, it's a maybe.

  Whiteballz- l don't care what the other States are paying out neither do the majority of Californians. In order for this to make much sense, we need to read of 2nd place jackpot winners from California complaining about the amount they should have won- thing is: we don't, reason being people are happy to have won something in the first place.

  This is a DOA issue and will amount to nothing. What is important is Winning the Jackpot FIRST.If you cannot do that, there is no conversation on first or second place to begin with.

  Win first.

  
• maelstrom

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  May 12, 2013, 8:08 pm

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  BUt my original question is whether the math is right. What is the expected long term average for what 2nd prize will pay? I know along the way some will get more some less. I am not a communist! It is ok with me if different people get different results. Such is life.
• whiteballz

  

  Nutley, New Jersey
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  May 12, 2013, 9:29 pm

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  In response to noise-gate

  Quote: Originally posted by noise-gate on May 12, 2013

  Whiteballz- l don't care what the other States are paying out neither do the majority of Californians. In order for this to make much sense, we need to read of 2nd place jackpot winners from California complaining about the amount they should have won- thing is: we don't, reason being people are happy to have won something in the first place.

  This is a DOA issue and will amount to nothing. What is important is Winning the Jackpot FIRST.If you cannot do that, there is no conversation on first or second place to begin with.

  Win first.

  

  "This is a DOA issue and will amount to nothing. What is important is Winning the Jackpot FIRST.If you cannot do that, there is no conversation on first or second place to begin with.

  Win first."

  That's funny, you seem to start a topic almost every day asking people what they would do if they won. Now you are saying you should win the jackpot FIRST or there is no conversation to begin with.

  .
• noise-gate

  

  * In hot pursuit of $ *

  White Shores- California
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  May 12, 2013, 9:45 pm

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  " That's funny, you seem to start a topic almost every day asking people what they would do if they won. Now you are saying you should win the jackpot FIRST or there is no conversation to begin with."

   

  No- This question  is beyond your and my control, why? because it has been decided by the Powers that be, namely the Californian Lottery Committee on how the pay structure will be for the Californian lottery games, there is nothing you or l can say that will change that.When we have a for and against opinion, we run into the " we agree to disagree" realm. l know when to back off instead of commenting on a topic ad nauseum.

  My questions are based on things "WE CAN CONTROL, there is a difference. l could ask " Why dont other States refrain from imposing taxes on lottery winnings?"- but it would be pointless, its a decision that is already made by the legislators etc.

  Know when to pick your battles Whitelballz..

  
• gogidolim

  

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  May 13, 2013, 1:38 am

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  In response to rdgrnr

  Quote: Originally posted by rdgrnr on May 12, 2013

  Californians pay for their sins one way or another.

  There is a price to be paid for foisting Charlie Sheen upon an innocent nation.

   Not my fault.