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PB California - Did they do the math right?

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Stack47.

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whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
Nutley, New Jersey
United States
Member #131058
August 1, 2012
875 Posts
Offline
Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

California is pari-mutuel for ALL draw prizes, just like most state lotto top prizes and Mega Millions and Powerball top prizes are ALL pari-mutuel. It is based on a percentage of sales, it rolls over, it is split amongst multiple winners, and the amount varies widely from draw to draw. I just don't get this manufactured outrage at pari-mutuel.

As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above. In fact hardly ever see any in the news except an occasional criminal they are looking for. Or one case below they actually did this woman a HUGE favor by putting the picture out after 5 months, a month before it expired. If the didn't do that, she'd have been out $23M. Good for them:

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/02/14886414-after-california-lotterys-5-month-search-winner-claims-23-million-prize?lite

Cervera

The daughter saw herself on the news and called the mother, and that prompted her to look for the ticket she'd forgotten in her glove compartment of her car for 5 months.

For all the other states, the 5 + 0 winners are guaranteed atleast a million dollars. If I ever get 5 +0 I'd for d*** sure want at least a million and don't post that guy with the 1.3 million check again. He's the one guy who got over a million, every other second prize winner got less than a million.

If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished the same exact thing you did in matching 5 numbers and they get at least a million? I would feel short changed, I paid $2 for my ticket and matched 5 numbers the same as the winners from New York but I get 256k and the people from New York get a million.

"As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above."

His name is Bladimir Agnite of Fremont, CA and he won the mega millions jackpot on July 27, 2012.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2196755/Bladimir-Agnite-Man-recognizes-wanted-picture--realizes-hes-won-52m-lotto.html

One month after the drawing, the california lottery commission decided to release his photo to the news. People in California have one year to claim their mega millions prize. I understand if they released his surveillance photo after 11 months but after one month? That is jumping the gun. Someone may not want to claim their prize immediately after the draw. There are some people who might want to hire lawyers, CPA and advisers before claiming the prize. They might even want to set up a trust or they might even want to change their legal name prior to collecting the prize and have some level of anonymity.

I'm not going to sit here and act like all the other state lotteries are perfect and the california lottery commission is complete trash. None of the state lotteries are perfect. The point I'm trying to get accross is the CA lotto definitely has room to improve.

.

    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
    Los Angeles, California
    United States
    Member #103813
    January 5, 2011
    1530 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:57 pm - IP Logged

    For all the other states, the 5 + 0 winners are guaranteed atleast a million dollars. If I ever get 5 +0 I'd for d*** sure want at least a million and don't post that guy with the 1.3 million check again. He's the one guy who got over a million, every other second prize winner got less than a million.

    If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished the same exact thing you did in matching 5 numbers and they get at least a million? I would feel short changed, I paid $2 for my ticket and matched 5 numbers the same as the winners from New York but I get 256k and the people from New York get a million.

    "As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above."

    His name is Bladimir Agnite of Fremont, CA and he won the mega millions jackpot on July 27, 2012.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2196755/Bladimir-Agnite-Man-recognizes-wanted-picture--realizes-hes-won-52m-lotto.html

    One month after the drawing, the california lottery commission decided to release his photo to the news. People in California have one year to claim their mega millions prize. I understand if they released his surveillance photo after 11 months but after one month? That is jumping the gun. Someone may not want to claim their prize immediately after the draw. There are some people who might want to hire lawyers, CPA and advisers before claiming the prize. They might even want to set up a trust or they might even want to change their legal name prior to collecting the prize and have some level of anonymity.

    I'm not going to sit here and act like all the other state lotteries are perfect and the california lottery commission is complete trash. None of the state lotteries are perfect. The point I'm trying to get accross is the CA lotto definitely has room to improve.

    The same lotto games pay differently in different states, 5/39, 6/49, etc. I understand that. Also some states have different rules on casino gambling for the same table games, and some have no gambling or lottery at all. The states have the right to their own rules that aren't pushed down from a national/federal directive.

    I try not to have an entitlement mentality, so I don't think someone owe's me something I don't yet have. You play by the rules of the game until you can change the rules, and try not to get worked up about it. That's my thinking.

      Avatar
      Toronto
      Canada
      Member #138397
      January 26, 2013
      179 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

      Maybe you better check your "pre-school" math. Wink

      Making the assumption in your calculation that sales=odds overly simplifies things, not very illuminating, sorry.

      No, it's VERY "illuminating". 

       

      The assumption is to make it easier to read, you can do without it. Let x be the number of tickets bought for a particular draw in CA.

       

      Total revenue = 2x 

      Total number of 2nd place winning tickets = x / 5,153,632.65 

      Total prize amount avaliable for 2nd place tickets = 2x * 9.7% = 0.194x 

      Total prize amount per 2nd place winning ticket = 0.194x  / (x / 5,153,632.65) = (5,153,632.65 * 0.194)x / x = 5,153,632.65 * 0.194 = 999804.7341.

       

      No matter how many tickets are bought, it remains that the ratio between second prize winning tickets and total tickets bought is the same, 

      on average. Therefore the "x" cancels out. I hope that helps you understand a bit better.

        whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
        Nutley, New Jersey
        United States
        Member #131058
        August 1, 2012
        875 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

        The same lotto games pay differently in different states, 5/39, 6/49, etc. I understand that. Also some states have different rules on casino gambling for the same table games, and some have no gambling or lottery at all. The states have the right to their own rules that aren't pushed down from a national/federal directive.

        I try not to have an entitlement mentality, so I don't think someone owe's me something I don't yet have. You play by the rules of the game until you can change the rules, and try not to get worked up about it. That's my thinking.

        that's great, someone says something negative about how the california lottery commission is currently running PB and they must have an entitlement mentality. Makes sense to me....

        .

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
          United States
          Member #103813
          January 5, 2011
          1530 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

          No, it's VERY "illuminating". 

           

          The assumption is to make it easier to read, you can do without it. Let x be the number of tickets bought for a particular draw in CA.

           

          Total revenue = 2x 

          Total number of 2nd place winning tickets = x / 5,153,632.65 

          Total prize amount avaliable for 2nd place tickets = 2x * 9.7% = 0.194x 

          Total prize amount per 2nd place winning ticket = 0.194x  / (x / 5,153,632.65) = (5,153,632.65 * 0.194)x / x = 5,153,632.65 * 0.194 = 999804.7341.

           

          No matter how many tickets are bought, it remains that the ratio between second prize winning tickets and total tickets bought is the same, 

          on average. Therefore the "x" cancels out. I hope that helps you understand a bit better.

          The real world is slightly more nuanced than the basic math. You are dealing with diversity of numbers and coverage, personal picks (overlap) and expected sales for the target market. The 9.7% is the percent of revenue reserved for that prize tier, and that does match the theoretical prize value. But it is not the same as the actual prize value per draw as realized in the real world.

            Avatar
            Toronto
            Canada
            Member #138397
            January 26, 2013
            179 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:55 pm - IP Logged

            The real world is slightly more nuanced than the basic math. You are dealing with diversity of numbers and coverage, personal picks (overlap) and expected sales for the target market. The 9.7% is the percent of revenue reserved for that prize tier, and that does match the theoretical prize value. But it is not the same as the actual prize value per draw as realized in the real world.

            Now it just sounds like you realized you're wrong, so you desperately bring in red herring to try to save face. Don't you think that's a little...

             

            I never claimed that the calculation gives the actual prize value. That's why it's called an AVERAGE, and not "actual value". The OP was asking whether

            CA lottery did their math correct, and that whether ON AVERAGE, 2nd place winners will receive around 1 million. So I just showed that; the math to find

            the average. You claimed that my math was over simplified and not "illuminating" (i.e wrong). I showed you that it wasn't. You could've been a gentleman, 

            and left it at that. Instead, you throw red herrings. 

             

            None of what you said matters. The average is the expected value over a long period of time. It doesn't matter if every single person won the 2nd prize in

            some draw, because in other draws, none of them would win. Overlaps don't change the expected value. The OP didn't ask the actual prize value for the next 

            draw. He asked for an average.

              noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
              Bay Area - California
              United States
              Member #136477
              December 12, 2012
              4111 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

              For all the other states, the 5 + 0 winners are guaranteed atleast a million dollars. If I ever get 5 +0 I'd for d*** sure want at least a million and don't post that guy with the 1.3 million check again. He's the one guy who got over a million, every other second prize winner got less than a million.

              If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished the same exact thing you did in matching 5 numbers and they get at least a million? I would feel short changed, I paid $2 for my ticket and matched 5 numbers the same as the winners from New York but I get 256k and the people from New York get a million.

              "As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above."

              His name is Bladimir Agnite of Fremont, CA and he won the mega millions jackpot on July 27, 2012.

              http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2196755/Bladimir-Agnite-Man-recognizes-wanted-picture--realizes-hes-won-52m-lotto.html

              One month after the drawing, the california lottery commission decided to release his photo to the news. People in California have one year to claim their mega millions prize. I understand if they released his surveillance photo after 11 months but after one month? That is jumping the gun. Someone may not want to claim their prize immediately after the draw. There are some people who might want to hire lawyers, CPA and advisers before claiming the prize. They might even want to set up a trust or they might even want to change their legal name prior to collecting the prize and have some level of anonymity.

              I'm not going to sit here and act like all the other state lotteries are perfect and the california lottery commission is complete trash. None of the state lotteries are perfect. The point I'm trying to get accross is the CA lotto definitely has room to improve.

              Whiteballz you quoted...

              If you were one of the six second prize winners from CA last night, can you honestly tell me you'd have no regret what so ever about getting 256k when someone from another state who accomplished the same exact thing you did in matching 5 numbers and they get at least a million? I would feel short changed, I paid $2 for my ticket and matched 5 numbers the same as the winners from New York but I get 256k and the people from New York get a million."

              What you fail to realize is that you dealing with two different States.l have no idea why you and others are so hung up with the " 2nd prize tier"- No one l know plays for 2nd prize unless you going up against Usian Bolt in the 100m dash. 

              As for the two stories you posted above- initially l was ticked with the one dealing with Baldimir, but the CLC was peppered with questions as to why they floated this guy's mug on the 5.00 clock news, and their response was " That ticket had been checked a number of times without anyone coming forward to claim the jp- they were concerned that it fell into the hands of the person or persons who were not the rightful owners ( their take on the matter). In order to make sure that the owner of said ticket was aware of his prize- they posted his picture..do l believe their story?- a litttle,maybe.

              THE 2nd story with the girl walking through the door, that ticket was going to " expire"- the CLC decided to post the picture of the owner who finally came forward to claim her prize.Do l agree with their method of operation, No. Yet at the same time their response is " too many tickets go unclaimed- we ensuring that people who do play the lottery and win are entitled to know that they have won and if they do not come forward with the time allotted for claiming your ticket- we can post your mug up there as a " careful reminder".. psst- You won $20 mil- get yourself in here and pick up the cheque.

              Whether you buy it or not..you have to give them kudos for trying to get your money and you together..Smile

                Avatar
                Morrison, IL
                United States
                Member #4657
                May 13, 2004
                1884 Posts
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                Posted: May 19, 2013, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                For those who complained about California's second place PB prizes being too low compared to the other states, it was the opposite last night (5/18/13): the two California 5+0 winners each won $2.3 million dollars.  As for the other states, they are probably doing the happy dance, because total sales should have supported 45 5+0 winners, or 40 5+0 winners without the California sales, and there were 33 5+0 winners outside of California, so the other states made an "extra" profit of over $7 million from the lack of second place winners (this may or may not have been cancelled out by the other prize levels though).

                ---

                  Avatar
                  Kentucky
                  United States
                  Member #32652
                  February 14, 2006
                  7322 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: May 19, 2013, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

                  For those who complained about California's second place PB prizes being too low compared to the other states, it was the opposite last night (5/18/13): the two California 5+0 winners each won $2.3 million dollars.  As for the other states, they are probably doing the happy dance, because total sales should have supported 45 5+0 winners, or 40 5+0 winners without the California sales, and there were 33 5+0 winners outside of California, so the other states made an "extra" profit of over $7 million from the lack of second place winners (this may or may not have been cancelled out by the other prize levels though).

                  California paid out 16.1% of their total sales to 769,585 secondary prize winners. Only 2 (the 5 + 0 winners) of the 769,585 winning tickets won more than the same type of prize winnings won in other states and the other 769,583 won less. 435,645 of those tickets beat odds of 55 to 1 to win a buck and another 227,540 tickets beat odds of 111 to 1 to win a buck.

                  The real complaint should be about all the California secondary prizes and not just the 5 + 0.