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PB California - Did they do the math right?

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Stack47.

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Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103813
January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
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Posted: May 13, 2013, 8:11 am - IP Logged

BUt my original question is whether the math is right. What is the expected long term average for what 2nd prize will pay? I know along the way some will get more some less. I am not a communist! It is ok with me if different people get different results. Such is life.

I don't think their goal was to fine tune the percentage to deliver a $1,000,000 2nd prize payment. You can't really do that. All they did was copy the prize share percentage of 9.7% from another state. So that just means that the cumulative percent of revenue paid out on 2nd prize tier would be the same.

With CA pari-mutuel PB, sometimes 2nd prize will be higher than $1M, sometimes it will be lower. And the prize value rolls over and is always paid out, unlike fixed prizes which do not roll over. Just like our Daily 3, sometimes it is higher than $500, sometimes it is lower. Rarely is it ever $500.

Where did they get the 9.7% and is it correctly sized for CA? Who knows, and it may be a little off, only time will tell. But you can't judge the results so early after less than a few months of play. And the $642,816 number is simplistic and somewhat misleading, as that is not the expected prize value per draw, it is the worst case reflecting the lottery prize expense per winner.

Right now the expected prize value per draw is relatively low, $743,784. That is due to the fact that we just started PB, and we came in during the middle of a run, and there were about twice as many 2nd prie winners as expected, and it may get a little worse before it gets better until the top prize resets.

5/5 2nd Prize:CA Pari-mutuel PowerballFixed Powerball
Prize Pool 
per Draw
$1,028,561 NA
Prize Value
per Draw
$743,784 $1,000,000 
Prize Expense
per Winner
$642,816 $1,000,000 
Payout Percent
of Total Revenue
9.70%?
    whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
    Nutley, New Jersey
    United States
    Member #131058
    August 1, 2012
    875 Posts
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    Posted: May 13, 2013, 8:20 am - IP Logged

    That's funny, you seem to start a topic almost every day asking people what they would do if they won. Now you are saying you should win the jackpot FIRST or there is no conversation to begin with."

     

    No- This question  is beyond your and my control, why? because it has been decided by the Powers that be, namely the Californian Lottery Committee on how the pay structure will be for the Californian lottery games, there is nothing you or l can say that will change that.When we have a for and against opinion, we run into the " we agree to disagree" realm. l know when to back off instead of commenting on a topic ad nauseum.

    My questions are based on things "WE CAN CONTROL, there is a difference. l could ask " Why dont other States refrain from imposing taxes on lottery winnings?"- but it would be pointless, its a decision that is already made by the legislators etc.

    Know when to pick your battles Whitelballz..

    Smile

    so the topics that are up for discussion are things we can control and if it's not in our control then the topic is off limits? You just started a new thread on if you see your ex coming after you. How can you control if your ex comes after you or not? Your ex may be completely irrational and whether or not they come after you is beyond your control. If we restrict the topics to things in our control, then this message board would pretty much be empty.

    .

      JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

      United States
      Member #5599
      July 13, 2004
      1184 Posts
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      Posted: May 13, 2013, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

      I'm curious about the 5/5 prize for the paramutuel payout in CA and  I know we still have a low number of draws to base any conclusions on but did they get their math right?  I thought that they set the game up to closely mimick the results from the states that use the standard payouts.  Are they putting enough money from each ticket into the 5/5 prize pool so that over time we will see an average payout at the 1 million level? So far it doesn't look like it, but maybe CA players have just been on a hot streak and hit the 5/5 more than expected in the first 10 draws. Do we have any math geeks who know the answer.

      Here is what the 10 winners of 5/5  got paid so far in CA:

      1,306,323

      501,893

      501,893

      280,630

      280,630

      917,856

      917,856

      573,694

      573,694

      573,694

       

      W

      maelstrom,

      The results you posted are no suprise at all, I would be very suprised if the amount of million dollar plus winners would ever come close to those who recieve far less than the standard million dollar prize. We will see how it goes. So far nine people have been shorted while one has recieved a marginally bet than average payback. Hmmmmm....

      JonD,

      Yes, it needs to be beaten more until it changes to what the lottery customers want. To be treated equally across the board. Imagine some of the others games... the rules for baseball, football, basketball changing depending upon what state your in. *L* I guess it makes sense to some. I'm just not one of them.

      You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

      Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19825 Posts
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        Posted: May 13, 2013, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

        maelstrom,

        The results you posted are no suprise at all, I would be very suprised if the amount of million dollar plus winners would ever come close to those who recieve far less than the standard million dollar prize. We will see how it goes. So far nine people have been shorted while one has recieved a marginally bet than average payback. Hmmmmm....

        JonD,

        Yes, it needs to be beaten more until it changes to what the lottery customers want. To be treated equally across the board. Imagine some of the others games... the rules for baseball, football, basketball changing depending upon what state your in. *L* I guess it makes sense to some. I'm just not one of them.

        Maybe California is the only state that did the math, the rest were willing to accept less of a bigger pie. 

        After all, before states like Ohio added PB, they weren't getting any of the pie and players from Ohio were contributing to the pie by buying tickets in neighboring states.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
          Massachusetts
          United States
          Member #37433
          April 14, 2006
          2747 Posts
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          Posted: May 16, 2013, 7:53 am - IP Logged

          In last nights drawing, the 6 Californians who hit the second prize will get only $256,317 while the rest 22 winners from other states will get $1M and two of those will get $2M. To the Californians, that knowledge must hurt like hell.

          That money's gone fo ever

            JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

            United States
            Member #5599
            July 13, 2004
            1184 Posts
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            Posted: May 16, 2013, 8:45 am - IP Logged

            In last nights drawing, the 6 Californians who hit the second prize will get only $256,317 while the rest 22 winners from other states will get $1M and two of those will get $2M. To the Californians, that knowledge must hurt like hell.

            Can Arizona sell powerball tickets in California? *L*

            You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

            Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.


              United States
              Member #142348
              May 9, 2013
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              Posted: May 16, 2013, 10:44 am - IP Logged

              On the next mega millions draw if there is a single 5/5 winner they stand to win about 1.1 million. That would be a very nice 4x standard payout, the amount rolled over is $877k.

                noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                Bay Area - California
                United States
                Member #136477
                December 12, 2012
                4106 Posts
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                Posted: May 16, 2013, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                On the next mega millions draw if there is a single 5/5 winner they stand to win about 1.1 million. That would be a very nice 4x standard payout, the amount rolled over is $877k.

                Right now the PB jackpot is sitting at over half a billion- California had 5  2nd place winners and none of them are complaining. If a single Californian won the PB- some people would complain.

                Dance

                  JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

                  United States
                  Member #5599
                  July 13, 2004
                  1184 Posts
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                  Posted: May 16, 2013, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

                  Right now the PB jackpot is sitting at over half a billion- California had 5  2nd place winners and none of them are complaining. If a single Californian won the PB- some people would complain.

                  Dance

                  How would you know they are not complaining? I'll bet they have not even claimed thier tickets, been interviewed  or are even aware of the additional  $750k they would have gotten from the other states.

                  Maybe turn around bus tours to buy Powerball tickets in other states is the answer. *L*

                  You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                  Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                    noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                    Bay Area - California
                    United States
                    Member #136477
                    December 12, 2012
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                    Posted: May 16, 2013, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

                    How would you know they are not complaining? I'll bet they have not even claimed thier tickets, been interviewed  or are even aware of the additional  $750k they would have gotten from the other states.

                    Maybe turn around bus tours to buy Powerball tickets in other states is the answer. *L*

                    Jk- Californians have waited for years for PB to get to the State,  this is not our first rodeo.The mere fact that 5 Californians got 2nd place- the Lion's share of the jackpot speaks volumes. It would have been 6 with my win but that was not to be. Next time perhaps.
                    Maybe the topic of the 2nd place payout will be discussed in the near future but for now. ...its a..
                    Party

                    Enjoy.

                      whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
                      Nutley, New Jersey
                      United States
                      Member #131058
                      August 1, 2012
                      875 Posts
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                      Posted: May 16, 2013, 5:43 pm - IP Logged

                      I love the california lottery commission. Pari-mutuel second prize payouts and if you don't claim the jackpot one month after the drawing, they plaster surveillance pictures of you all over the evening news.

                      winners

                      .

                        Avatar
                        Toronto
                        Canada
                        Member #138397
                        January 26, 2013
                        179 Posts
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                        Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

                        Actually this question is EXTREMELY easy to answer, no uber-geeky multivariable calculus, nothing. Just very simple pre-school math.

                         

                        You guys found out that CA pays 9.7% of the revenue to the 2nd place prize. That's already half the work.

                         

                        The other half I'll do for you guys: Wikipedia "powerball". According to wikipedia, the odds of winning the 2nd place prize is 1 in 5,153,632.65. 

                         

                        That's all you need. On average, about 1 in 5 million tickets will win a prize. So let's say 5.1 million players in CA bought a ticket, and there was 1 2nd place

                        winner. How much would he get? Well, he gets 9.7% of the total revenue, which is 5.1 million times 2. 

                         

                        Put mathematically, prize = 5,153,632.62 * 2 * 9.7% = 999,804.73.

                         

                        It's as simple as that.

                          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                          Los Angeles, California
                          United States
                          Member #103813
                          January 5, 2011
                          1530 Posts
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                          Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:07 pm - IP Logged

                          I love the california lottery commission. Pari-mutuel second prize payouts and if you don't claim the jackpot one month after the drawing, they plaster surveillance pictures of you all over the evening news.

                          winners

                          California is pari-mutuel for ALL draw prizes, just like most state lotto top prizes and Mega Millions and Powerball top prizes are ALL pari-mutuel. It is based on a percentage of sales, it rolls over, it is split amongst multiple winners, and the amount varies widely from draw to draw. I just don't get this manufactured outrage at pari-mutuel.

                          As far as putting pictures in the news, I've never seen that one above. In fact hardly ever see any in the news except an occasional criminal they are looking for. Or one case below they actually did this woman a HUGE favor by putting the picture out after 5 months, a month before it expired. If the didn't do that, she'd have been out $23M. Good for them:

                          http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/02/14886414-after-california-lotterys-5-month-search-winner-claims-23-million-prize?lite

                          Cervera

                          The daughter saw herself on the news and called the mother, and that prompted her to look for the ticket she'd forgotten in her glove compartment of her car for 5 months.

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                            Los Angeles, California
                            United States
                            Member #103813
                            January 5, 2011
                            1530 Posts
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                            Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

                            Actually this question is EXTREMELY easy to answer, no uber-geeky multivariable calculus, nothing. Just very simple pre-school math.

                             

                            You guys found out that CA pays 9.7% of the revenue to the 2nd place prize. That's already half the work.

                             

                            The other half I'll do for you guys: Wikipedia "powerball". According to wikipedia, the odds of winning the 2nd place prize is 1 in 5,153,632.65. 

                             

                            That's all you need. On average, about 1 in 5 million tickets will win a prize. So let's say 5.1 million players in CA bought a ticket, and there was 1 2nd place

                            winner. How much would he get? Well, he gets 9.7% of the total revenue, which is 5.1 million times 2. 

                             

                            Put mathematically, prize = 5,153,632.62 * 2 * 9.7% = 999,804.73.

                             

                            It's as simple as that.

                            Maybe you better check your "pre-school" math. Wink

                            Making the assumption in your calculation that sales=odds overly simplifies things, not very illuminating, sorry.

                              Avatar
                              Morrison, IL
                              United States
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                              May 13, 2004
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                              Posted: May 16, 2013, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

                              Right now the PB jackpot is sitting at over half a billion- California had 5  2nd place winners and none of them are complaining. If a single Californian won the PB- some people would complain.

                              Dance

                              I don't think it's THAT unfair if a California player wins the PB jackpot, because the state joined in the third draw of the current run, so it's really only two draws of fourteen where they didn't contribute to the jackpot.  Now, if a single Florida player wins Mega Millions tomorrow night, that's REALLY unfair to the other states, because this would be the only draw of nineteen where the Florida lottery contributed to the pot.

                              ---