Was that the official concession speech from Mega Millions?

Reply #26

markp1950 — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 22:24:04 GMT

It went to 425 million. They were just being cautious......

Reply #25

rdgrnr — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:46:49 GMT

I knew you were gonna say that, AB

I always try to beat ya to it.

Reply #24

sully16 — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:42:25 GMT

Scmoods is not a real word ? Dang, I'll have to rethink my Christmas letter.

Reply #23

rdgrnr — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:40:03 GMT

It's good that you review your ramblings after you sober up.

Reply #22

rdgrnr — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 00:37:27 GMT

Sorry mark, just trying to make a distinction between the two.

Maybe I should have said virtually impossible and virtually impossibler

Reply #21

Jon D — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 21:29:47 GMT

I'm glad you caught that yourself. There's people 'round here that will come after you for your posts if you don't dot all you're T's and cross all your eyes

Reply #20

LottoBoner — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 21:21:30 GMT

I misspoke too.

ODDS SCMOODS. Odds is a only a guide.

I meant to say ODDS SCHMODDS.

SCMOODS is not a real word.

Reply #19

Jon D — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 21:08:57 GMT

Forgot the megaplier:

- increase megaplier to 5x with tempting $5M 2nd prize

Reply #18

Jon D — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 20:45:10 GMT

Yeah, the annuity change could be most of the difference in sales. That's what gets people pumped up is the annuity JP value so pumping that up pumps up sales. Lots of players probably don't even know or care about the new matrix. But they did several changes at once, so it's hard to say which contributes more now and going forward.

- increase annuity from 26 to 30 annual payments

- change annuity payments from fixed to graduated, 5% inc per year, higher than PB 4%

- increase JP prize p... [ More ]

Reply #17

Toronto — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 20:16:13 GMT

I'm curious what the slope for PB vs. Mega (new matrix) is. Do you think the net positive change is solely because of the switch to 30-year annuity value? That would show that they could have kept the old matrix, but simply moved to 30 years if so.

Reply #16

Astekblue — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 16:15:36 GMT

Dang it Ridge ...... Once again you said the exact same thing I was gonna say

I hate when that happens

Good One El ' Elite Cadre

Reply #15

markp1950 — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 12:56:33 GMT

Do the math..

A $2 PB ticket is odds of 1:175mil

A $2 MM ticket is odds of 1:258mil/2=1:129mil

BOTH are Virtually Impossible.

State lottery is about $1,300,000 after taxes with 1:7milor 1:3.5mil for a $2 ticket.

It's the first Mil that counts the most. Buy me a piece of land, buy me a house, buy me a car and I'm set with the extra cash.

I will be in all of them though.

Reply #14

rdgrnr — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 10:19:12 GMT

I think you're probably right. I sometimes tend to assign a rationale more apropos for our microcosm of the lottery playing universe than of the great unwashed masses who inhabit the rest of it.

As the elite cadre of that universe, however, we can't necessarily be faulted for a mindset far removed from it's rustic mores and trifling passions.

Reply #13

RedStang — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 06:31:46 GMT

These large jackpots attract players that don't usually play, and their probably just finding out the new changes. I also think it's bad timing with xmas coming up.

Reply #12

Jon D — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:53:02 GMT

I really can't, it's just too hard to go by individual intervals of the JP. Who knows what was happening then: PB JP values, Friday versus Tues,(Friday inc is higher) holiday, terrorist attack, etc. The JP is a derivative value from the main value I'm looking at: Sales.

My other graphs were a big picture detailed look at one run imposed over another, showing the sales increase through the run as time goes by on new matrix, compared to the preceding run.

I have another big big picture view... [ More ]

Reply #11

LottoMetro — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:19:25 GMT

You're correct, I mispoke in my post suggesting the next jackpot would be $462.5 M. The sales projections are what fuels the advertised jackpots, which means whatever MUSL projects for next Tuesday will be added to Friday's current levels if indeed the draw rolls (I will have those numbers Friday afternoon). Anyway, there was a shortage between the projected sales and the actual sales for yesterday. When sales fall short they do not have enough money to fund the advertised amount. This combined,... [ More ]

Reply #10

KY Floyd — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:07:06 GMT

The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive

Then perhaps you'd like to explain why, when the effect of the new annuity schedule is accounted for, the increases from any particular amount are now smaller.

Reply #9

KY Floyd — Thu, 12 Dec 2013 00:02:45 GMT

That the cash/annuity ratio is different for this drawing than the last one doesn't guarantee that a changing rates resulted in an inability to fund the previously advertised annuity. I'm assuming that the announce the jackpot based on expected sales and a commitment for the annuity value based on the cash expected to fund it. Do you have specific information to the contrary? Assuming they do get acommitment, that would mean that rather than having a shortfall if there had been a winner (and the... [ More ]

Reply #8

Jon D — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 21:55:59 GMT

The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive, compared to where MM has been for the past year and a half, which was in general decline.

It's hard to compare individual intervals here and there, of various points in the run on a different annuity. That's kind of like looking at a something big through a straw. But looking at trends and patterns, it's clear to see that sales are up since the new matrix. Maybe not enough to save MM, but they've at least arrested the dive, an... [ More ]

Reply #7

LottoBoner — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 21:45:06 GMT

Aww shucks.

I am trying to limit my nefarious use of the term wise guy , and actully impart some real wisdom to the world.

You know I am not Italian, but I do love pizza! (Especially with some sauteed mushrooms, onions, peppers and sausage)

I hope that you guys play some real wheels, if you can. I know poolies are very inexperienced lottery players. They mostly salivate over the increasing zeros.

This is one time when I wish I was still a wage slave (although running the pool was mi... [ More ]

Reply #6

Dd2160 — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 21:32:19 GMT

LB you are one wise guy...:) the office pool is in full effect....as for me I get ONE (1) ticket only it doesn't take two tickets to win the Jackpot

Reply #5

LottoBoner — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 21:08:56 GMT

ODDS SCMOODS. Odds is a only a guide.

I think the trigger point has been hit.

I forgot to play Tuesday. I was inebriated and in amorous affection with the number 43.

Good thing, I saved some money on Lotto tickets.

(but boy that bottle of Tangueray sure did cost a small fortune.) (Good thing I am not one of those lonely money 99%ers, or a one legged ninja)

Since friday is the next draw, this is the time when the poolies get involved. They start checking the news. Hey you know the

Reply #4

spartan1707 — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 19:14:01 GMT

Yup my thoughts as well. Though it's still a dollar the small increase just make me wonder how long this can continue.

Reply #3

rdgrnr — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 18:58:01 GMT

I think a lot of players dropped out or cut back when the odds went from Extremely Unlikely to Virtually Impossible.

It may hit a big trigger point for a lot of people at a certain level though.

Reply #2

LottoMetro — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 18:48:43 GMT

I wouldn't say it's a lack of confidence but rather a lack of support. They were wrong in their projections (scary since they are supposed to be conservative) and actually had a shortage of funding. I suppose this should be expected given it is only the first run in the matrix, but a shortage has occurred several times already. On top of being short in funding, the annuity factor decreased from 1.869 to 1.848. This means last night's advertised $344 million jackpot was only worth $339.1 million.... [ More ]

Reply #1

Slick Nick — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 18:47:54 GMT

KY, I thought similar things about the Mega also. Oh well they must have their reasons. However they may think since the reduction to the Mega balls which is now only 15 balls that that may attract more players

Was that the official concession speech from Mega Millions?

KY Floyd — Wed, 11 Dec 2013 18:38:36 GMT

An increase from 344 to an even 400 million? I'm sure the MM officials are hoping to bump the final value before the drawing, but such a small increase considering the size of the advertised jackpot demonstrates a serious lack of confidence.

Not that they've had a lot of chances to start from a similar amount in the past, but the times that they have the increase was far, far bigger. Almost exacty 3 years ago the jackpot went from 242 to 380 million (maybe that was the one that actually toppe... [ More ]