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Was that the official concession speech from Mega Millions?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 3 years ago by markp1950.

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NY
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Posted: December 11, 2013, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

An increase from 344 to an even 400 million? I'm sure the MM officials are hoping to bump the final value before the drawing, but such a small increase considering the size of the advertised jackpot demonstrates a serious lack of confidence.

Not that they've had a lot of chances to start from a similar amount in the past, but the times that they have the increase was far, far bigger. Almost exacty 3 years ago the jackpot went from 242 to 380 million (maybe that was the one that actually topped out at about 390?). Even starting from $100 million less, they saw an increase of $140 milion.  3 months later it went from 244 to 319. Not quite 2 years ago the record setting jackpot jumped from 363 to 656 million in a single shot.

Those were all under the old annutiy schedule, where each dollar the jackpot was increased was equivalent to an increase of about $1.27 today. That means those past increases should really be viewed as 242 to 417,  244 to 339, and 363 to 735. If this one doesn't bump to at least $425 before the drawing I can't imagine that the obituary for this version of the game is far off.

    Slick Nick's avatar - Lottery-035.jpg
    Rochester
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    Posted: December 11, 2013, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

    KY, I thought similar things about the Mega also. Oh well they must have their reasons. However they may think since the reduction to the Mega balls which is now only 15 balls that that may attract more players!   Type

    Money is a terrible master, but a great servant...Smile

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: December 11, 2013, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

      I wouldn't say it's a lack of confidence but rather a lack of support. They were wrong in their projections (scary since they are supposed to be conservative) and actually had a shortage of funding. I suppose this should be expected given it is only the first run in the matrix, but a shortage has occurred several times already. On top of being short in funding, the annuity factor decreased from 1.869 to 1.848. This means last night's advertised $344 million jackpot was only worth $339.1 million. They are projecting sales of about 104 million for Friday, so if they are correct and the interest factor remains the same (unlikely though) the next jackpot will start at roughly $462.5 million with cash at $250 million.

      I believe now that Mega has topped $400 million, sales will pick up. Case in example: the last two $400+ million Powerball jackpots. On the other hand, if Mega doesn't reach record levels this round, it will probably be a long time before it gets any attention again.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2017: 0% (0 tickets)
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

        rdgrnr's avatar - walt
        Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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        Posted: December 11, 2013, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

        I think a lot of players dropped out or cut back when the odds went from Extremely Unlikely to Virtually Impossible.

        It may hit a big trigger point for a lot of people at a certain level though.

          spartan1707's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
          Tucson
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          Posted: December 11, 2013, 2:14 pm - IP Logged

          Yup my thoughts as well. Though it's still a dollar the small increase just make me wonder how long this can continue.


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            Posted: December 11, 2013, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

            I think a lot of players dropped out or cut back when the odds went from Extremely Unlikely to Virtually Impossible.

            It may hit a big trigger point for a lot of people at a certain level though.

            ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

            I think the trigger point has been hit.

            I forgot to play Tuesday.  I was inebriated and in amorous affection with the number 43.

            Good thing, I saved some money on Lotto tickets.

            (but boy that bottle of Tangueray sure did cost a small fortune.)  (Good thing I am not one of those lonely money 99%ers, or a one legged ninja)

            Since friday is the next draw, this is the time when the poolies get involved. They start checking the news.  "Hey you know the JP is now $400 million?"

            They have a couple days to organize.  The start gathering at the water cooler.  They start speculating and intending.

             "Boy, you know it sure would be nice to have me a couple of Lear Jets, a lamborghini and a live in sex slave that also cooks some fabulous curry kungo po shrimp."

            Friday is payday.

            You think MUSL has not down their fair share of market research?

            They are probably here on LP trying to do it.

              Dd2160's avatar - hiro dolphin.jpg
              Allentown, Brookyn, Pa, Ny
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              Posted: December 11, 2013, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

              ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

              I think the trigger point has been hit.

              I forgot to play Tuesday.  I was inebriated and in amorous affection with the number 43.

              Good thing, I saved some money on Lotto tickets.

              (but boy that bottle of Tangueray sure did cost a small fortune.)  (Good thing I am not one of those lonely money 99%ers, or a one legged ninja)

              Since friday is the next draw, this is the time when the poolies get involved. They start checking the news.  "Hey you know the JP is now $400 million?"

              They have a couple days to organize.  The start gathering at the water cooler.  They start speculating and intending.

               "Boy, you know it sure would be nice to have me a couple of Lear Jets, a lamborghini and a live in sex slave that also cooks some fabulous curry kungo po shrimp."

              Friday is payday.

              You think MUSL has not down their fair share of market research?

              They are probably here on LP trying to do it.

              LB you are one wise guy...:) the office pool is in full effect....as for me I get ONE (1) ticket only it doesn't take two tickets to win the Jackpot!

              Trouble aint easy...oui pa pa!!


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                Posted: December 11, 2013, 4:45 pm - IP Logged

                LB you are one wise guy...:) the office pool is in full effect....as for me I get ONE (1) ticket only it doesn't take two tickets to win the Jackpot!

                Aww shucks.Embarassed

                I am trying to limit my nefarious use of the term "wise guy", and actully impart some real wisdom to the world.

                You know I am not Italian, but I do love pizza!  (Especially with some sauteed mushrooms, onions, peppers and sausage)

                I hope that you guys play some real wheels, if you can.  I know poolies are very inexperienced lottery players.  They mostly salivate over the increasing zeros. 

                This is one time when I wish I was still a wage slave Wink(although running the pool was mildly stressful.)Sad Cheers

                5 is a lucky number for me, and also 13, so I might be thowing some of those in the mix. 

                Anyway good luck to your poolie team, and a most happy and placid retirement to you when you win!!

                  Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                  Los Angeles, California
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                  Posted: December 11, 2013, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

                  The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive, compared to where MM has been for the past year and a half, which was in general decline.

                  It's hard to compare individual intervals here and there, of various points in the run on a different annuity. That's kind of like looking at a something big through a straw. But looking at trends and patterns, it's clear to see that sales are up since the new matrix. Maybe not enough to save MM, but they've at least arrested the dive, and have started to gain altitude. It may save the year.

                  But it will not solve the underlying root cause of the problem: people have accepted Powerball's higher $2 price, and it will always have nearly twice the base/starting sales. The sales dominance by PB is not due to any indictment on MM, old or new. It's just that for a person's given budget, if they play the same numbers on both games, PB gets twice as much money. And then they play more when one or the other's JP gets big.

                  The new MM may help some, as one big run can pull in an additional $1 Billion all by itself. But it cannot overcome this fundamental problem of the price difference between MM and PB.

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                    Posted: December 11, 2013, 7:02 pm - IP Logged

                    I wouldn't say it's a lack of confidence but rather a lack of support. They were wrong in their projections (scary since they are supposed to be conservative) and actually had a shortage of funding. I suppose this should be expected given it is only the first run in the matrix, but a shortage has occurred several times already. On top of being short in funding, the annuity factor decreased from 1.869 to 1.848. This means last night's advertised $344 million jackpot was only worth $339.1 million. They are projecting sales of about 104 million for Friday, so if they are correct and the interest factor remains the same (unlikely though) the next jackpot will start at roughly $462.5 million with cash at $250 million.

                    I believe now that Mega has topped $400 million, sales will pick up. Case in example: the last two $400+ million Powerball jackpots. On the other hand, if Mega doesn't reach record levels this round, it will probably be a long time before it gets any attention again.

                    That the cash/annuity ratio is different for this drawing than the last one doesn't guarantee that a changing rates resulted in an inability to fund the previously advertised annuity. I'm assuming that the announce the jackpot based on expected sales and a commitment for the annuity value based on the cash expected to fund it. Do you have specific information to the contrary? Assuming they do get acommitment, that  would mean that rather than having a shortfall if there had been a winner (and they chose the  promised annuity), the current increase is simply based on $60.9 million instead of $56 million in order to fund the advertised annuity.

                    As for selling 104 million tickets, with $0.32577 from each ticket funding the jackpot, they would then be expecting a cash increase of about $33.9 million. Using your figure of 1.848 as the annuity factor means in increase in the annuity value of about $62.6 million. Applying that to the (now) lower value of the previously advertised annuity would mean their actual expectation is that Friday's jackpot should reach $401.7 million. The cash option would then be a bit shy of $217.4 million.

                    Assuming you're saying that $462.5 million is what the jackpot would be for next Tuesday, assuming we get another rollover, that would be a further increase of only $61 million. Slighty more if we figure that another change in interest rates decreases the annuity value of the cash collected so far. If you're suggesting that  they're actually expecting this drawing to finish in the $460 million range then they'd have to be expecting sales to be about  200 million tickets.

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                      Posted: December 11, 2013, 7:07 pm - IP Logged

                      The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive, compared to where MM has been for the past year and a half, which was in general decline.

                      It's hard to compare individual intervals here and there, of various points in the run on a different annuity. That's kind of like looking at a something big through a straw. But looking at trends and patterns, it's clear to see that sales are up since the new matrix. Maybe not enough to save MM, but they've at least arrested the dive, and have started to gain altitude. It may save the year.

                      But it will not solve the underlying root cause of the problem: people have accepted Powerball's higher $2 price, and it will always have nearly twice the base/starting sales. The sales dominance by PB is not due to any indictment on MM, old or new. It's just that for a person's given budget, if they play the same numbers on both games, PB gets twice as much money. And then they play more when one or the other's JP gets big.

                      The new MM may help some, as one big run can pull in an additional $1 Billion all by itself. But it cannot overcome this fundamental problem of the price difference between MM and PB.

                      "The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive"

                      Then perhaps you'd like to explain why, when the effect of the new annuity schedule is accounted for,  the increases from any particular amount are now smaller.

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                        Happyland
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                        Posted: December 11, 2013, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

                        That the cash/annuity ratio is different for this drawing than the last one doesn't guarantee that a changing rates resulted in an inability to fund the previously advertised annuity. I'm assuming that the announce the jackpot based on expected sales and a commitment for the annuity value based on the cash expected to fund it. Do you have specific information to the contrary? Assuming they do get acommitment, that  would mean that rather than having a shortfall if there had been a winner (and they chose the  promised annuity), the current increase is simply based on $60.9 million instead of $56 million in order to fund the advertised annuity.

                        As for selling 104 million tickets, with $0.32577 from each ticket funding the jackpot, they would then be expecting a cash increase of about $33.9 million. Using your figure of 1.848 as the annuity factor means in increase in the annuity value of about $62.6 million. Applying that to the (now) lower value of the previously advertised annuity would mean their actual expectation is that Friday's jackpot should reach $401.7 million. The cash option would then be a bit shy of $217.4 million.

                        Assuming you're saying that $462.5 million is what the jackpot would be for next Tuesday, assuming we get another rollover, that would be a further increase of only $61 million. Slighty more if we figure that another change in interest rates decreases the annuity value of the cash collected so far. If you're suggesting that  they're actually expecting this drawing to finish in the $460 million range then they'd have to be expecting sales to be about  200 million tickets.

                        You're correct, I mispoke in my post suggesting the next jackpot would be $462.5 M. The sales projections are what fuels the advertised jackpots, which means whatever MUSL projects for next Tuesday will be added to Friday's current levels if indeed the draw rolls (I will have those numbers Friday afternoon). Anyway, there was a shortage between the projected sales and the actual sales for yesterday. When sales fall short they do not have enough money to fund the advertised amount. This combined, with a reduced annuity factor, meant yesterday's actual jackpot was only $339.1 M. So if someone had won that is what they would've received. This case is similiar to where in the past a $600 million jackpot actually turn out to be $590 million etc.

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
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                          Posted: December 11, 2013, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

                          "The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive"

                          Then perhaps you'd like to explain why, when the effect of the new annuity schedule is accounted for,  the increases from any particular amount are now smaller.

                          I really can't, it's just too hard to go by individual intervals of the JP. Who knows what was happening then: PB JP values, Friday versus Tues,(Friday inc is higher) holiday, terrorist attack, etc. The JP is a derivative value from the main value I'm looking at: Sales.

                          My other graphs were a big picture detailed look at one run imposed over another, showing the sales increase through the run as time goes by on new matrix, compared to the preceding run.

                          I have another big big picture view of just Sales, over a longer period, from the last record MM run and peak sales in Mar/2012, just after the PB change to $2. You can see the general steady decline in MM sales, mainly looking at the low points of the early/mid stages of the run but also overall. (1 sales data point is off the chart: the $651M peak sales. too hard to see detail otherwise)

                          The trendlines kind of tell the story, but the real trend is somewhere in the middle. After the matrix change, there is an uptick in sales. Higher rate of increase of sales,(steeper slope) and higher sales values attained than at any time since 3/2012.(and still going) The background grey lines shows the PB JP value relative to MM sales.

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                            Posted: December 12, 2013, 1:31 am - IP Logged

                            I think a lot of players dropped out or cut back when the odds went from Extremely Unlikely to Virtually Impossible.

                            It may hit a big trigger point for a lot of people at a certain level though.

                            These large jackpots attract players that don't usually play, and their probably just finding out the new changes. I also think it's bad timing with xmas coming up.

                              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                              Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                              Posted: December 12, 2013, 5:19 am - IP Logged

                              These large jackpots attract players that don't usually play, and their probably just finding out the new changes. I also think it's bad timing with xmas coming up.

                              I think you're probably right. I sometimes tend to assign a rationale more apropos for our microcosm of the lottery playing universe than of the great unwashed masses who inhabit the rest of it.

                              As the elite cadre of that universe, however, we can't necessarily be faulted for a mindset far removed from it's rustic mores and trifling passions.