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Was that the official concession speech from Mega Millions?

Topic closed. 26 replies. Last post 3 years ago by markp1950.

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Milwaukee, WI
United States
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December 27, 2003
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Posted: December 12, 2013, 7:56 am - IP Logged

I think a lot of players dropped out or cut back when the odds went from Extremely Unlikely to Virtually Impossible.

It may hit a big trigger point for a lot of people at a certain level though.

Do the math..

A $2 PB ticket is odds of 1:175mil

A $2 MM ticket is odds of 1:258mil/2=1:129mil

BOTH are Virtually Impossible.

State lottery is about $1,300,000 after taxes with 1:7milor 1:3.5mil for a $2 ticket.

It's the first Mil that counts the most. Buy me a piece of land, buy me a house, buy me a car and I'm set with the extra cash.

I will be in all of them though.

    Astekblue's avatar - Tarlor
    Kentucky
    United States
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    March 12, 2006
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    Posted: December 12, 2013, 11:15 am - IP Logged

    I think you're probably right. I sometimes tend to assign a rationale more apropos for our microcosm of the lottery playing universe than of the great unwashed masses who inhabit the rest of it.

    As the elite cadre of that universe, however, we can't necessarily be faulted for a mindset far removed from it's rustic mores and trifling passions.

    Dang   it    Ridge  ......   Once    again   you   said   the  exact  same  thing  I  was   gonna   say   Wink

     

    I  hate  when  that  happens   Smile

     

     

     

     

    Good   One    El '     Elite   Cadre     ROFL

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      Posted: December 12, 2013, 3:16 pm - IP Logged

      The net effect of the new Mega Millions matrix change is positive, compared to where MM has been for the past year and a half, which was in general decline.

      It's hard to compare individual intervals here and there, of various points in the run on a different annuity. That's kind of like looking at a something big through a straw. But looking at trends and patterns, it's clear to see that sales are up since the new matrix. Maybe not enough to save MM, but they've at least arrested the dive, and have started to gain altitude. It may save the year.

      But it will not solve the underlying root cause of the problem: people have accepted Powerball's higher $2 price, and it will always have nearly twice the base/starting sales. The sales dominance by PB is not due to any indictment on MM, old or new. It's just that for a person's given budget, if they play the same numbers on both games, PB gets twice as much money. And then they play more when one or the other's JP gets big.

      The new MM may help some, as one big run can pull in an additional $1 Billion all by itself. But it cannot overcome this fundamental problem of the price difference between MM and PB.

      I'm curious what the slope for PB vs. Mega (new matrix) is. Do you think the net positive change is solely because of the switch to 30-year annuity value? That would show that they could have kept the old matrix, but simply moved to 30 years if so.

        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
        Los Angeles, California
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        Posted: December 12, 2013, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

        I'm curious what the slope for PB vs. Mega (new matrix) is. Do you think the net positive change is solely because of the switch to 30-year annuity value? That would show that they could have kept the old matrix, but simply moved to 30 years if so.

        Yeah, the annuity change could be most of the difference in sales. That's what gets people pumped up is the annuity JP value so pumping that up pumps up sales. Lots of players probably don't even know or care about the new matrix. But they did several changes at once, so it's hard to say which contributes more now and going forward.

        - increase annuity from 26 to 30 annual payments
        - change annuity payments from fixed to graduated, 5% inc per year, higher than PB 4%
        - increase JP prize pool share from 31.8% to 32.58%
        - change matrix to 75/15, more rollovers, continues to grow as PB gets hit more often (like it just did)

        They could have just done one change. But I like that they tried something different like the new matrix instead of just copying PB, who needs that? Let's see some real changes and differences and not this arms race of big annuity JP we have with this two party multi-state JP duopoly.

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
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          Posted: December 12, 2013, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

          Forgot the megaplier:

          - increase megaplier to 5x with tempting $5M 2nd prize


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            Posted: December 12, 2013, 4:21 pm - IP Logged

            I misspoke too.

            ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

             

            I meant to say ODDS SCHMODDS.

             

             

            SCMOODS is not a real word.

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
              United States
              Member #103813
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              Posted: December 12, 2013, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

              I misspoke too.

              ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

               

              I meant to say ODDS SCHMODDS.

               

               

              SCMOODS is not a real word.

              I'm glad you caught that yourself. There's people 'round here that will come after you for your posts if you don't dot all you're T's and cross all your eyes! Crazy

                rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                Posted: December 12, 2013, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                Do the math..

                A $2 PB ticket is odds of 1:175mil

                A $2 MM ticket is odds of 1:258mil/2=1:129mil

                BOTH are Virtually Impossible.

                State lottery is about $1,300,000 after taxes with 1:7milor 1:3.5mil for a $2 ticket.

                It's the first Mil that counts the most. Buy me a piece of land, buy me a house, buy me a car and I'm set with the extra cash.

                I will be in all of them though.

                Sorry mark, just trying to make a distinction between the two.

                Maybe I should have said virtually impossible and virtually impossibler?

                  rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                  Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                  April 28, 2009
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                  Posted: December 12, 2013, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                  I misspoke too.

                  ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

                   

                  I meant to say ODDS SCHMODDS.

                   

                   

                  SCMOODS is not a real word.

                  It's good that you review your ramblings after you sober up.

                    sully16's avatar - sharan
                    Ringleader
                    Michigan
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                    October 28, 2009
                    42075 Posts
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                    Posted: December 12, 2013, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

                    I misspoke too.

                    ODDS SCMOODS.  Odds is a only a guide.

                     

                    I meant to say ODDS SCHMODDS.

                     

                     

                    SCMOODS is not a real word.

                    Scmoods is not a real word ? Dang, I'll have to rethink my Christmas letter.

                     HyperBe Happy.

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
                      United States
                      Member #73904
                      April 28, 2009
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                      Posted: December 12, 2013, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

                      Dang   it    Ridge  ......   Once    again   you   said   the  exact  same  thing  I  was   gonna   say   Wink

                       

                      I  hate  when  that  happens   Smile

                       

                       

                       

                       

                      Good   One    El '     Elite   Cadre     ROFL

                      I knew you were gonna say that, AB

                      I always try to beat ya to it. Approve

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                        Milwaukee, WI
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                        December 27, 2003
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                        Posted: December 13, 2013, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                        An increase from 344 to an even 400 million? I'm sure the MM officials are hoping to bump the final value before the drawing, but such a small increase considering the size of the advertised jackpot demonstrates a serious lack of confidence.

                        Not that they've had a lot of chances to start from a similar amount in the past, but the times that they have the increase was far, far bigger. Almost exacty 3 years ago the jackpot went from 242 to 380 million (maybe that was the one that actually topped out at about 390?). Even starting from $100 million less, they saw an increase of $140 milion.  3 months later it went from 244 to 319. Not quite 2 years ago the record setting jackpot jumped from 363 to 656 million in a single shot.

                        Those were all under the old annutiy schedule, where each dollar the jackpot was increased was equivalent to an increase of about $1.27 today. That means those past increases should really be viewed as 242 to 417,  244 to 339, and 363 to 735. If this one doesn't bump to at least $425 before the drawing I can't imagine that the obituary for this version of the game is far off.

                        It went to 425 million.  They were just being cautious......