Mega Millions odds 1:259 Million, almost half already used up..

Reply #29

Hamp101 — Wed, 18 Dec 2013 03:19:36 GMT

I don,t think over 5 people will get 5+0 numbers tonight just saying LOL

Reply #28

mrcraft — Wed, 18 Dec 2013 03:18:44 GMT

In California, the cut-off is 7:45 local time, 15 minutes prior to the draw.

Reply #27

Hamp101 — Wed, 18 Dec 2013 03:11:13 GMT

still has time to close the gap,! When is the cut off for the latest you can buy a ticket ? Saw on the National News Lines were Out the door .

Just 1 person was in line in front of me today where I went to get my 20 lines 4 ticket wager, Meeting street, downtown, Charleston SC .

I went after 8:pm lol

Reply #26

Stack47 — Wed, 18 Dec 2013 02:23:00 GMT

They are talking about being very close to record breaking sales (650 million tickets) and simply divide that by 17,259,390. Hopefully you'll get 38 five number matches. If you didn't miss the memo saying there are now just 15 bonus numbers, divide 650 million by 15. That 43.3 million five number combos for every bonus number. Based on the sales figures, there should be at least two jackpot winners.

The 12/13 sales were 167 million, divide it by 17,259,390, and let me know how close your answ... [ More ]

Reply #25

haymaker — Wed, 18 Dec 2013 00:52:57 GMT

B/C he posted that yesterday, the draw is tonight.

Reply #24

helpmewin — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 23:46:30 GMT

why

Reply #23

KY Floyd — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 22:57:32 GMT

I know you like to feel better about yourself by thinking you've got a grasp of reality, but you're the one who's making it complicated.

It's actually very simple. As a simple matter of probability, selling every combination only becoems very likely when sales are several times the number of possible combination.

What else is very simple, though a completely separate matter, is that the chance of a winner is a function of probability, and correlates directly with the percentage of combinat... [ More ]

Reply #22

Stack47 — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 19:18:54 GMT

Nope and I wasn't arguing how much in ticket sales it would take for every combination to be sold either. I know you like to feel better about yourself by making things complicated, but they will draw one bonus number and whether or not there is a jackpot winner depends on if that number is on a 5 + 0 match. For all we know the winning jackpot ticket was sold on Saturday morning.

but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0.

It doen... [ More ]

Reply #21

KY Floyd — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 17:46:51 GMT

Were you trying to make a point that's related to the part you quoted?

The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number.

The percentages favor a jackpot winner as soon as they sell 50.00001% of the combinations, but if they sell 258,890,800 combinations we could still see a rollover even if 250 people match 5+0.

Reply #20

LottoMetro — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 16:11:12 GMT

Except in limited liability lotteries, there is no limit on the number of duplicate/repeat number sets. In the case of Mega Millions, if they sell 200 million tickets, approximately 60-61 million of those will be duplicates. This assumes random selection but it is inclusive of both quick picks and personal picks. Duplicate number sets are the reason why the chance of multiple winners goes up as sales increase.

To guarantee a winner, yes technically you would need to sell all combinations. How... [ More ]

Reply #19

bigbear29 — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 06:33:46 GMT

I just don't get it! So, are we saying that repeat numbers sets are not given out with quicks picks? Are we going to have repeat number sets quick picks for this drawing? May-be it's just me that thinks this is not that simple. You have to use up all 259 million possibilities for someone to win????? If only four people played the lotto total, and one ticket won, what does that say? It's late, and I just don't get it.

Factors: Quick Picks and peoples own numbers mmmmmmmmm.......... let me... [ More ]

Reply #18

LottoMetro — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 04:24:17 GMT

Yes, it would take more than a billion to guarantee all combinations sold.....I stated well over a billion for simplicity sake. In fact to literally guarantee all combinations sold, it could take upwards of 8,769,827,519 tickets (assuming random selection and using 30 digit accuracy). Of course that is an extreme example; sales of 1 billion would have a ~98% chance of there being at least one winner, sales of 2 billion would have a 99.96% chance of there being at least one winner, and sales of 3... [ More ]

Reply #17

Stack47 — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 03:55:44 GMT

With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so.

The probability is 1 five number match for every 17,259,390 tickets sold and a billion in sales should create 58 five number matches. Each five number match has a 1 in 15 chance of winning the jackpot and 518 million in sales creates 30 five number matches. The percentages favor at least one of those 30 combos matching the bonus number. It's possible 15 five number matches could each match a different bonus nu... [ More ]

Reply #16

Six balls — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 03:31:32 GMT

I agree, Metro. At the current CV/JP ratio (which has been advertised at a consistent 53-54% since the annuity change), JP value would have to exceed $872 mil to break the $471 mil CV record. That's a far reach from where we're at.

In the event of a single ticket winner, Gloria's $370.9 mil record would be broken at $687 mil. Also a stretch, but a Wee, record JP! frenzy might pull it off.

Reply #15

LottoMetro — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 02:37:20 GMT

The cash jackpot record will not be broken Tuesday. Friday, maybe.

I actually don't think the current annuity record will be broken Tuesday either. I'm thinking it will rise to $600 million.

MM director is predicting 65-70% of combinations will be sold. She verified that they have NEVER sold every Mega Millions combination for any drawing. With the new matrix, they would have to sell well over a billion tickets to do so. She also said the annuity will most certainly be $1 billion or more i... [ More ]

Reply #14

tony869 — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 02:16:23 GMT

So this means 1.? Million combinations are left to play and I really wonder if 259. Million can be sold before drawing deadline tomorrow.....

Reply #13

ryanm — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 01:52:01 GMT

I wonder if the record CASH OPTION jackpot will be surpassed as well on Tuesday. Remember the annuity is larger at any given cash value now, since they now pay in graduated installments, whereas under the old record, it was paid in equal installments.

Reply #12

RedStang — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 00:26:52 GMT

I want to see a ticket that says: 1 2 3 4 5-- (6), then i'll believe all combos were sold.

Reply #11

haymaker — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 00:25:57 GMT

CoinToss, if this is true then I'm correct about there being 2 or 3 winners, as I stated in another thread.

B/C I hav'nt bought my tix. yet,

and that means someone already has the #s I will get on a QP,

that is unless the w/held combo is whats drawn.

If that happens then you're going to hear a lot about how it must be fixed.

Reply #10

haymaker — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 00:16:40 GMT

Impossible to win tonight, maybe you have a time machine

Reply #9

gnozahs — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:57:38 GMT

Based on that alone, someone is bound to win it.

Reply #8

tony869 — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:45:32 GMT

Locking out the last one? Does that mean the last combo numbers is going to be the winning numbers

Reply #7

Saylorgirl — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:44:30 GMT

If you would win it tonight it would be news to everyone!! I wouldn't have even had time to purchase my ticket

Reply #6

tony869 — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:40:56 GMT

Oh wow then for sure someone will win it tonight and hope it's me..

Reply #5

Coin Toss — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:33:33 GMT

DATELINE: Urbandale, Iowa

Mega Millions officials have just announced that 258,890,849 combinations have been sold and they are locking out the last one.

The Superbook in Vegas says No Action on that combination as they consider it a lock, and nothing in Vegas has ever been a lock.

Reply #4

tony869 — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:30:35 GMT

Paula Otto, executive director of the Virginia Lottery and Mega Millions' lead director, told the Associated Press on Sunday that sales were up by as much as 20 percent over weekend numbers and were expected to spike on Tuesday, the day of the drawing.

I think we'll be very close to the record, and maybe even surpass it, Otto said, adding that sales are difficult to predict.

Lotto players are procrastinators. They tend to buy on the day of the draw, she said.

As of Friday, players had... [ More ]

Reply #3

Coin Toss — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:20:13 GMT

Mega Millions odds 1:259 Million, almost half already used up..

Which half

Reply #2

IPlayWeekly — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 22:15:22 GMT

Tomorrow will be interesting

Reply #1

Saylorgirl — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 20:25:20 GMT

If over half of the combos have been purchased already and we still have 30 plus hours to go I suspect it will be hit tomorrow night.

Mega Millions odds 1:259 Million, almost half already used up..

tony869 — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 20:12:32 GMT

Just read online today from Mega Millions reps and they just said half of the 259 million possible numbers have been bought so far.. So this means the other 50% combos have not been bought up.. Well i think there will be no winners tomorrow or Fridays drawings.. HOLYYYYYYYYY Smokessss Folks are you ready to see a 1.2 Billion Jackpot? I can only imagine if that comes it it and i can see long lines all over the USA even our neighbor Canucks will drive over to buy tickets..

Let's get ready to R... [ More ]