Powerball Power Play Number Almost Always 2 ?

Reply #73

JADELottery — Mon, 12 May 2014 18:05:55 GMT

Reply #72

rdgrnr — Thu, 08 May 2014 16:24:49 GMT

No more Powerplay for me.

They can jam it.

Reply #71

JADELottery — Thu, 08 May 2014 12:57:27 GMT

the terrible 2's on a roll again.

maybe it'll go twice as long.

Reply #70

LottoMetro — Fri, 02 May 2014 19:58:01 GMT

Well, to my understanding the Cash WinFall exploit had nothing to do with a system of playing numbers but rather the actual game prize structure. This wouldn't show up in any independence test, which is likely how they got away with it for awhile. Draw game structure exploits are extremely rare situations (I can think of only 1 since the WinFall scenario, and it was eliminated last year). Even when available these usually require large bankrolls. I tend to avoid draw games simply because they ar... [ More ]

Reply #69

jimmy4164 — Fri, 02 May 2014 19:28:12 GMT

LottoMetro,

If a game proves signficantly non-independent, then would you consider testing the hypothesis of a system.

Of course. But opportunities like the Cash WinFall game in Massachusetts don't appear very often. And if you were a larcenous programmer in a lottery IT department, would you engineer draw output in a computerized game that would be useful to anyone but yourself and possibly those who were required to get it installed?

IMO if no bias exists (aka 100% indepen... [ More ]

Reply #68

LottoMetro — Fri, 02 May 2014 04:13:37 GMT

Yes, good points. My original posts were concerning tests for independence, which does not require a sample size in proportion to the population size. It only requires that the sample be greater than or equal to expected frequency of 5 (according to Handbook of Biological Statistics); I prefer 30. If a game proves signficantly non-independent, then would you consider testing the hypothesis of a system. I have run across non-independent games a few times, but the advantage was not sufficient enou... [ More ]

Reply #67

jimmy4164 — Fri, 02 May 2014 03:25:33 GMT

LottoMetro,

My recommendation is simply call the lottery and talk to them about this issue. They can probably clear this up better than anyone.

Alternatively, you could calculate the required Sample Size to be Confident to whatever degree you desire that your observations have validity. Since our sample size is number of draws, the Population Size would be the total possible outcomes of the matrix in question. Plugging this into the calculator at this site, you should be able to conv... [ More ]

Reply #66

JADELottery — Wed, 30 Apr 2014 14:57:18 GMT

We get it now.

They're just ahead of the times.

They are using Common Core to calculate these Odds.

Our take on it is based on the ol' gubment standard: Say one thing, Do another.

Reply #65

mypiemaster — Sun, 27 Apr 2014 05:15:05 GMT

I would like to see a constant 5X powerplay especially for the 2nd{RIPOFF} prize. Unfortunately, it does not work that way.

Reply #64

Jon D — Mon, 21 Apr 2014 08:22:22 GMT

JADELottery: The rest of this is just fluff to confuse the issue of odds.

Yep, LottoMetro does a lot fluff as you so nicely put it. (BS could also be used)

LottoMetro: There's only been 26 draws of Power Play and you already believe it's rigged/bogus/biased

Yep, this is typical LottoMetro tactics. I've dealt with this guy many times before, and he's always got the arrogance and condescending knobs turned up to 10 all the time, whether he's right or wrong. And like above, he'll make insu... [ More ]

Reply #63

Jon D — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 22:24:45 GMT

Such foulmouthed namecalling. Shame on you LottoMetro.

I think everyone can see and decide for themselves, and your posts just continue to confirm your malady. And I only respond to you when you are making false statements, misinforming the LP populace, or just being a bully to other LP members. Frankly any interaction with you is quite nauseating, so I keep it to a minimum, but someone has to do it.

Why don't you come clean and stop being a deceitful snake in the grass LottoMetro? You ca... [ More ]

Reply #62

LottoMetro — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 21:12:57 GMT

You did not use the term frequency in the original statement but instead expressed a form of odds that used frequency as its basis. Close enough.

I do not understand your confusion, but your perspective of the lottery is different, so I can see how confusion is possible. My recommendation is simply call the lottery and talk to them about this issue. They can probably clear this up better than anyone

Reply #61

LottoMetro — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 21:10:19 GMT

P.S. Don't mind LottoMetro's arrogant condescending remark from above:

There's only been 26 draws of Power Play and you already believe it's rigged/bogus/biased....despite me providing statistical evidence to the contrary.

LottoMetro can't help acting like a jerk if anyone dares question him. He has even admitted this himself in a previous post: I admit my social skills are lacking.

But since LottoMetro lacks that sensitivity chip, he's the last one to be evaluating wherther or not he's... [ More ]

Reply #60

JADELottery — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 17:45:16 GMT

I've never seen a lottery that had a number frequency matching its odds of appearance exactly. Randomness keeps this from happening. As such anything is game for the short run.....streaks, skips, whatever.

We did not say the frequency would match exactly. If we did, show it by quote.

The rest of this is just fluff to confuse the issue of odds.

There's only been 26 draws of Power Play and you already believe it's rigged/bogus/biased....despite me providing statistical evidence to th... [ More ]

Reply #59

Jon D — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 16:53:52 GMT

JADE,

I think the discrepancy you're seeing is just due to the fundamental problem with the lottery industry referring to probability as odds.

I posted about this many times before, eg:

https://www.lotterypost.com/news/267366/3307806

Basically:

probability = chances for / total chances (or x in y)

odds = chances for : chances against (or x to y)

So for Powerplay, what the lottery calls odds is really the probability:

2x - 1 in 2 (or 5 in 10)

3x - 1 in 3.33 (or 3 in 10... [ More ]

Reply #58

LottoMetro — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 16:22:52 GMT

I've never seen a lottery that had a number frequency matching its odds of appearance exactly. Randomness keeps this from happening. As such anything is game for the short run.....streaks, skips, whatever.

There's only been 26 draws of Power Play and you already believe it's rigged/bogus/biased....despite me providing statistical evidence to the contrary. Honestly I don't think there have been enough draws to reach this conclusion. Last night Power Play number 5 came up.

On an unrelated no... [ More ]

Reply #57

JADELottery — Sun, 20 Apr 2014 15:17:01 GMT

Alright, here we go.

Throughout this topic odds have made an appearance and have been used to explain the occurrences of the various multiplier selections.

The Megaplier does have problems, but it seems to benefit the player more than the Power Play multiplier does.

For now we'll focus on the Power Play multiplier.

There are 3 different odds to work with: Stated, Calculated and Estimated.

The Stated and Calculated should always be in exact agreement with each other.... [ More ]

Reply #56

JADELottery — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 17:45:32 GMT

Now the problem.

We'll start with a simple view of odds.

When odds are stated, they generally refer to the likely chance the event or selection will happen, not it won't happen.

Examples are:

You don't hear it phrased as Your odds of Not being struck by lightening are ... , it's Your odds of being struck by lightening are ...

You don't hear it talked about as Your odds of Not dieing in a plane crash is ..

You don't read about Your odds of Not being in a car ac... [ More ]

Reply #55

JADELottery — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 17:44:35 GMT

No, but good guess.

We're not quite that greedy.

Just enough to keep us happy and pay the bills; with a little leftover for fun.

Reply #54

CARBOB — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 17:36:22 GMT

x=10

Reply #53

JADELottery — Sat, 19 Apr 2014 17:32:38 GMT

we're working on it.

we just had a very intense work week.

just another $X,000.00 take home pay check.

the X you'll have to guess.

Reply #52

THRIFTY — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 16:10:25 GMT

Time to take a break from playing the lottery? You can still buy 1 Powerplay ticket monthly or yearly.

Reply #51

THRIFTY — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 15:21:21 GMT

Winning the lottery is a numbers game. Buy more lottery tickets per drawing to increase your chances of winning instead of playing Powerplay.

Reply #50

JADELottery — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 10:07:53 GMT

However, we see a problem.

We'll get back in a bit.

Reply #49

JADELottery — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 02:15:19 GMT

Hmm.

Hmm, hmm.

Hmm, hmm, hmm.

Yes.

Reply #48

LottoMetro — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 01:04:27 GMT

There are 10 total virtual PowerPlay balls:

1 for 5X 1 for 4X 3 for 3X 5 for 2X

5X = 1/10 = 10%

4X = 1/10 = 10%

3X = 3/10 = 30%

2X = 5/10 = 50%

Total 100%

Aside from the simple method, using percentages above, you can use the Ei = N/n like so: E(2X) = 24 (drawings) * 5 (x2 balls) / 10 (total balls) = 12

Calculating chi for 2X where observed = 16 and expected = 12:

x2 = (16-12)2/12 = 1.3333

p-value is essentially 1, Excel says 0.9982

Other chi results:

x2

Reply #47

JADELottery — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 01:00:41 GMT

You're sure you want to go with those values?

We see a problem.

Reply #46

LottoMetro — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 00:54:43 GMT

Since PowerPlay is only 1 digit it's pretty simple: the expected frequency is derived from the proportion of digits that are theoretically supposed to come up. For the case of x2, the odds are 1 in 2. This means the expected frequency is 50% of drawings. For x3, the expected frequency is about 30% of drawings.

For x2

24 drawings = 12 expected

26 drawings = 13 expected

For x3

24 drawings = 7.21 expected

26 drawings = 7.81 expected

etc.

Obviously, 7.21 exact appearances is... [ More ]

Reply #45

JADELottery — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 00:09:08 GMT

Χ2 ah, yes.

test, hmm, good.

within the test, what are you using as an expected frequency?

or better yet, how are you deriving the expected frequency?

observations we have, it's that pesky expectedness we like to see.

Reply #44

THRIFTY — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:39:43 GMT

Players are getting paid less relative to the chances of winning.

Reply #43

THRIFTY — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:38:11 GMT

Is playing the lottery evil

Reply #42

THRIFTY — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:36:36 GMT

Spend more money to win more.LOL

Reply #41

THRIFTY — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:35:18 GMT

Buy regular powerball tickets, and your problem will be solved.

Reply #40

LottoMetro — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 20:35:02 GMT

Chi-squared analysis. It's the same exact test used by lottery auditors, whose sole purpose, by the way, is to determine if the drawings are rigged/biased.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi-squared_test

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson%27s_chi-squared_test

There are also other tests for smaller samples, i.e. auditing when a game has just been launched.

Reply #39

JADELottery — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 20:28:22 GMT

oh, you have a formula for this.

great, let's see it.

Reply #38

LottoMetro — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 20:02:39 GMT

right now, based on the estimated odds, it appears the stated odds are bogus; or at least the odds for the x2 power play.

You can choose to believe me or not, but statistically speaking there is nothing unusual or bogus about the current frequency of Power Play numbers.

The expected number of appearances for #2 is 12, and although there have been 16, it still isn't a big enough difference to be significant. It would have to show up for the next 4 consecutive drawings before it will be cons... [ More ]

Reply #37

JADELottery — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 19:42:05 GMT

we always thought that was a strange way of selecting the power play with a wheel like that.

now it's, odda sight, odda mind.

there is no way to tell how they bias the power play selection.

however, the more samples they make, the more we can guess what's wrong.

right now, based on the estimated odds, it appears the stated odds are bogus; or at least the odds for the x2 power play.

one good thing about the power play is we don't play powerball ever since it went to $2.

now we h... [ More ]

Reply #36

Jon D — Tue, 15 Apr 2014 01:19:47 GMT

Maybe they should just do a ball draw for the Powerplay multiplier.

How does anyone know what the code or algorithm is for the PP computer selection? They don't. Isn't that why they do ball draws for Powerball in the first place, so people can see the selection method?

So they go to all the trouble to make the multipler odds ball draw equivalent but yet do a computer draw. They could make the odds just about anything they want. Heck, they could offer a 10X multipler, but the odds would be... [ More ]

Reply #35

rdgrnr — Mon, 14 Apr 2014 18:23:46 GMT

The Powerplay has been 2X for ten of the last twelve drawings now.

They have too many dam* 2's in the mix.

Startin' to git my hackles up.

Reply #34

Jon D — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 14:13:28 GMT

Well, that explains it!

Playing Powerball with PowerPlay is contributing to Satan's cause.

I never play PowerPlay.

Reply #33

THRIFTY — Wed, 09 Apr 2014 12:42:53 GMT

The lottery is in the business of making money. Spending $2 SOMEDAY for any powerball jackpot makes economic sense.

Reply #32

JADELottery — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 15:22:03 GMT

There's a quick way to check if the odds are valid for this type of selection.

If the correct odds are:

1 in w

1 in x

1 in y

1 in z

Then the following expression will become 0:

w x y z - w x - w y - w z - x y - x z - y z - 2 w - 2 x - 2 y - 2 z - 3

The dot, , is shorthand for multiply.

In the previous A, B, C, D ball example, the exact odds are:

Ball Odds

A 1 in 9

B 1 in 4

C 1 in 7/3

D 1 in 3/2

This makes w... [ More ]

Reply #31

JADELottery — Sun, 06 Apr 2014 20:31:50 GMT

Here's something interesting.

Multiply Powerball's Power Play Odds.

2 x 3.33 x 10 x 10 = ???

666

Reply #30

mypiemaster — Sat, 05 Apr 2014 23:17:10 GMT

Been all pi$$ed off about the PB not having a multiplier for 2nd prize, and the stupid 2x multiplier which makes absolutely no sense. When I think about it, I get all-pi$$ed-off again, so I quit thinking about it. Now I'm all pi$$ed off again.

Reply #29

JADELottery — Thu, 03 Apr 2014 11:03:36 GMT

If you're going to play a multiplier game, Mega Millions is the way to go.

Reply #28

JADELottery — Thu, 03 Apr 2014 11:00:33 GMT

2 again last night, 2014-04-02.

yep, the decepti-con is in full force.

we are glad we don't play this game.

Reply #27

JADELottery — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 22:20:29 GMT

The other odd thing about the Power Play is we cannot find any combination of positive, non-zero integers that can match or even come close to matching the stated odds.

Power Play Odds Stated Odds

2 1 in (B + C + D) / A 1 in 2

3 1 in (A + C + D) / B 1 in 3.33

4 1 in (A + B + D) / C 1 in 10

5 1 in (A + B + C) / D 1 in 10

A, B, C, D can be any value {1, 2, 3, ...

Reply #26

JADELottery — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 20:00:04 GMT

As of today, 2014-04-01, the sample frequencies for the Power Play and Megaplier is as follows:

Power Play Frequency

2 13

3 4

4 2

5 1

Megaplier Frequency

2 7

3 17

4 9

5 13

Their estimated odds can be compared to the stated odds we posted earlier.

Power Play Odds Estimated Odds

2 1 in 2 1 in 0.54

3 1 in 3.33 1 in 4

4 1 in 10 1 in 9

5 1 in 10 1 in 19

Megaplier Odds Estimated Odd... [ More ]

Reply #25

JADELottery — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 19:14:37 GMT

Sampled odds are determined the same way as calculated odds, however, we use the frequency of each selection to estimate the odds.

If we used the same 100 balls with 10 A balls, 20 B balls, 30 C balls and 40 D balls, then made repeated selections and putting back in to the mix the ball we select, we can track the frequency of our selections for each A, B, C and D picks.

Let's say to keep this simple we sampled 100 selections and we got the following selection counts for each A, B, C... [ More ]

Reply #24

JADELottery — Tue, 01 Apr 2014 18:35:44 GMT

So, everyone had some time to see the posts we made.

Good, let's move on.

First, let's go over Odds and how to calculate Odds.

Don't worry; this is not going to be a mental mathematical juggernaut.

All we will be using are: add, subtract, multiply, divide and a fancy word, ratio, meaning to relate one number to another.

Odds is basically defined as the ratio of Success (S) to Failure (F).

S is the total possible outcomes or probability an event will occur and... [ More ]

Reply #23

JADELottery — Mon, 31 Mar 2014 19:08:17 GMT

The Original Power Play Selection Method

Reply #22

THRIFTY — Sun, 30 Mar 2014 14:13:43 GMT

Do not play the Powerball Lottery.

Reply #21

sflottolover — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 21:02:23 GMT

Yes, I also keep playing at basical about 2~4 games every, mostly at two games at every time!

It is not so easy to follow up in chasing its numbers, even I have marked them in my note book with simple stastics. The mega is the most important one (if not included in the game). You will never win big rewrds, if there is no mega number in your game!

It is so easy to loss

Reply #20

LottoMetro — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 18:28:01 GMT

The charts he posted are the ones posted by the lottery. Go back to my post here: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273839/3540130. You will see the Megaplier stated in terms of 15. There are six 5s, three 4s, four 3s, and two 2s. The lottery simplifies this to terms of odds of 1 in.... by just dividing.

MM is still the better play per dollar, you have to think of it by cost because it's not really fair to compare a $2 ticket to a $3 one. The current Power Play actually returns less than the... [ More ]

Reply #19

Callahan — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 13:33:48 GMT

Ok, I have a question on the charts posted by JADELottery ... tell me if I am seeing or figuring these numbers and odds correctly.

With PowerPlay it seems pretty clear ... there are a total of 10 numbers in the digital mix with only one 5 and one 4 ... three 3s and five 2s for a total of 10 numbers.

Now with Megaplier ... there are a total of 15 numbers in the digital mix ... this is where I am getting mixed up or don't understand the odds. The number 5 has odds of 1 in 2.5 ... am I correc... [ More ]

Reply #18

bigbear29 — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 21:53:59 GMT

I like that on the same line, no manipulations and the word programmed.

Reply #17

JADELottery — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 21:43:00 GMT

From:

http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_prizes.asp

http://www.megamillions.com/how-to-play

Reply #16

JADELottery — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 19:50:09 GMT

Observation noted.

We're looking.

Reply #15

LottoMetro — Fri, 28 Mar 2014 00:12:27 GMT

No manipulations necessarily.....the 2 ball is programmed to hit 50% of the time and the 3 ball about 30% of the time. So 80% of all the time, your winnings will be multiplied by 3 or less. That's without any interference. Not such a great bet after all

The fact they won't even go past $2 million for second prize is just sad.

Reply #14

Callahan — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 23:14:43 GMT

Thanks rdgrnr, I was getting ready to reply as you did but I wasn't sure if temptustoo didn't know or was joking around. It's all random and digital and if dollars are scarce with the jackpots not growing very large, as many people wait for a larger jackpot before they start buying tickets ... might they manipulate the lower numbers (2 and 3) to hit more often?

I don't know ... that's the only part of the PB drawing that could be messed with since the other numbers are balls bouncing around i... [ More ]

Reply #13

rdgrnr — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 22:54:47 GMT

You can't play the multiplier picks.

Reply #12

temptustoo — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 22:42:18 GMT

just start playing the 2 's ... better than being pissed on.......... unless u like that sort of thing...

Reply #11

rdgrnr — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 22:31:22 GMT

At $3 a line with Power Play, they oughta get rid of a couple of those 2 balls in the mix.

Especially since PP doesn't affect the 2nd prize.

All these 2's are startin' to piss me off.

Reply #10

maringoman — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 22:24:18 GMT

Interesting observation. The MP for MM is all over the place but the PP seems stuck at 2.

Reply #9

Callahan — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 18:27:03 GMT

Thanks for the greet noise-gate ... I didn't know CA didn't have the extra dollar. I normally don't play Powerball and Mega Millions all that much since all these new changes with higher odds. However, when March started I decided to play both games with the extra dollar for the whole month ... so I have these tickets and have won nothing to date ... still have Fri and Sat ... but I started to notice all the 2s coming out this month for the Power Play option. If I hadn't already spent the money... [ More ]

Reply #8

noise-gate — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 17:00:31 GMT

Welcome Callahan- you also get stars for getting your feet wet in the forum.

Unfortunately for us, California wants nothing to do with that extra dollar you speak of.

Peace.

Reply #7

LottoMetro — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:52:57 GMT

This info is in the official rules but it isn't publicized by most lotteries....they just want you to hear the potential multiplied amounts.

And yes, the odds on the lottery's charts are for 1 in ...

2X = 15/2 = 7.5

3X = 15/4 = 3.75

4X = 15/3 = 5

5X = 15/6 = 2.5

Reply #6

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:47:09 GMT

According to the MM how to play chart on Texas Lottery's website the odds for the megaplier are as follows:

2=1:7.5

3=1:3.75

4=1:5

5=1:2.5

Reply #5

Callahan — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:39:18 GMT

OK ... so there are more 2s and 3s knocking a person's chance that the extra dollar will probably be a smaller hit ... so the odds say. I rarely play the extra dollar so I never gave it much thought that there are more 2s and 3s in the mix and that my hoping for a 4 or 5 was slim to none or just slimmer.

I didn't see that information anywhere that you posted on the odds of the five numbers ... thanks for posting and also posting about the Mega Millions. So each of us can figure if the extra d... [ More ]

Reply #4

LottoMetro — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:21:28 GMT

As you mentioned, it is RNG drawn. Neither the multipliers in Power Play or Megaplier have all-equal chances of occurring.

Power Play Probability of Prize Increase

5X 1 in 10

4X 1 in 10

3X 1 in 3.33

2X 1 in 2

With odds of 1 in 2 for the 2X Power Play, it's no surprise that it is showing up so often.

Megaplier Probability of Prize Increase

5X 6 in 15

4X 3 in 15

3X 4 in 15

2X 2 in 15

Megaplier is definitely the better deal. Recall... [ More ]

Reply #3

Callahan — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 15:05:25 GMT

That's what I can't seem to find out ... been searching around over the last few weeks to try and find out if there is just one number each for the 1 through 5 Power Play pick or are there a bunch of 2s and 3s over the 4s and 5s. I think it should be only one number for each number 1 - 5. If that is so then it might not be a fair draw ... especially since it is digital and moves so fast.

If there are more 2s in the mix then why would anyone play the extra dollar if your odds are much better a... [ More ]

Reply #2

helpmewin — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 12:11:45 GMT

Welcome Callahanand Good Luck to you

Reply #1

rcbbuckeye — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 11:51:33 GMT

I have noticed that too. Looking at the odds there are more chances for 2 than the other powerplay numbers. I also don't pay the extra dollar, especially since the second prize payout would only be $2 million. Actually, the whole prize payout is out of wack on this game. Can't figure out what they were thinking when they made the changes.

Powerball Power Play Number Almost Always 2 ?

Callahan — Thu, 27 Mar 2014 11:07:05 GMT

Hi ... just joined LP today ... been reading for some time. I have been waiting for someone to make a comment about the PB Power Play number almost always being a 2 . I don't usually play the extra dollar but for some reason I did for the whole month of March. Seems to be kind of a waste playing the extra dollar.

Is PB controlling that in someway or are there more 2s than 4s and 5s in the mix of numbers. Is each number from 1 to 5 equal in the draw or are there more 2s than any other number.... [ More ]