New Powerplay Multiplier is a scam (again)

Reply #11

maximumfun — Fri, 23 Oct 2015 17:11:50 GMT

nicely done.

Reply #10

JADELottery — Fri, 23 Oct 2015 02:04:52 GMT

Just a what if.

Yeah, that's how they suck ya in, consistent inconsistency.

What'd you think you were going to win BIG.... ha-ha-ha-haaa.

Meet my little friend...

Reply #9

gatorsrok — Fri, 23 Oct 2015 01:51:54 GMT

The disimulation is pretty cool. It has one flaw and that is the 10X multiplier goes away once the jackpot hits $150M. But it looks like the 10X may hit once a year if we are lucky. Not particularly impressive.

Reply #8

ArizonaDream — Wed, 21 Oct 2015 00:34:29 GMT

I don't think 500 mil would make me any happier than 50 mil would. Heck, I'd be ecstatic with the 15 mil MM starting jackpot, 5 mil cash after taxes.

Reply #7

JADELottery — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 18:43:10 GMT

We ran a one year Disimulation on those distributions.

Index Date Disimulated Power Play

1 2015-10-07 3x

2 2015-10-10 2x

3 2015-10-14 2x

4 2015-10-17 3x

5 2015-10-21 10x

6 2015-10-24 2x

7 2015-10-28 2x

8 2015-10-31 2x

9 2015-11-04 2x

10 2015-11-07 2x

11 2015-11-11 4x

12 2015-11-14 3x

13 2015-11-18 5x

14 2015-11-21 3x

15 2015-11-25 2x

16 2015-11-28 2x

17 2015-12-02 2x

18 2015-12-05 2x

19 2015-1... [ More ]

Reply #6

JADELottery — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 18:14:38 GMT

Power Play Prize Times Power Play Odds

Probabilities

10X Prize Won Times 10

1 in 43

5X Prize Won Times 5

1 in 21.5

4X Prize Won Times 4

1 in 14.33

3X Prize Won Times 3

1 in 3.31

2X Prize Won Times 2

1 in 1.79

Based on these odds probabilities.

The pseudo balls would be:

10x 1 ball

5x 2 balls

4x 3 balls

3x 13 balls

2x 24 balls

But, as we all know, RNG

Reply #5

JADELottery — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 17:31:25 GMT

Also note the Power Play number is RNG.

Reply #4

RJOh — Tue, 20 Oct 2015 17:19:22 GMT

All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead.

If its jackpot ever reaches a billion $, I'll be able to think of one.

Reply #3

LottoMetro — Sun, 18 Oct 2015 18:06:25 GMT

A good rule of thumb is that when lotteries make changes (even tweaks) to their games they are rarely done to the players' benefit.

Using last years' data we would expect about 2 draws a year where the 10x multiplier hits.

I personally think it was a mistake for them not to change the 2nd prize in some way. They made it harder to win yet it is still stuck at the $2 million. At the same time I think the only reason they made any changes to the non-jackpot tiers was to make it look like they... [ More ]

Reply #2

ArizonaDream — Sun, 18 Oct 2015 17:47:33 GMT

I already didn't like that the second prize with powerplay was capped at 2 mil, the way the odds are skewed on picking the powerplay multiplier makes it look worse with the change.

At least with MM, megaplier also applies to the 5+0 prize, and 3x and 5x multipliers are more likely. (A couple of times I have gotten the 3x multiplier with small prizes, for $15 payout instead of $5. )

All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead... [ More ]

Reply #1

Todd — Thu, 15 Oct 2015 12:55:49 GMT

New Powerplay Multiplier is a scam (again)

gatorsrok — Thu, 15 Oct 2015 03:28:50 GMT

I already lost a lot of interest in the Powerball with the new matrix structure. But the MUSL tried to entice us to use the Powerplay option with a teaser 10X multiplier. The Florida lotto website only shows the multipliers but not the odds of each multiplier occurring. The website makes it appear that each multiplier is equally likely to occur. However, looking at the odds below, I don't think we will see the 10X multiplier more than once a year, if that. It is almost always going to be a paltr... [ More ]