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New Powerplay Multiplier is a scam (again)

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 1 year ago by maximumfun.

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Jacksonville
United States
Member #153806
March 26, 2014
363 Posts
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Posted: October 14, 2015, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

I already lost a lot of interest in the Powerball with the new matrix structure.  But the MUSL tried to entice us to use the Powerplay option with a teaser 10X multiplier.  The Florida lotto website only shows the multipliers but not the odds of each multiplier occurring.  The website makes it appear that each multiplier is equally likely to occur.  However, looking at the odds below, I don't think we will see the 10X multiplier more than once a year, if that.  It is almost always going to be a paltry 2X multiplier.  I just can't think of too many other ways they can ruin the game.

 

Odds When the 10x multiplier is available

Power PlayPrize Times Power PlayOdds
10X
Prize Won Times 10
1 in 43
5X
Prize Won Times 5
1 in 21.5
4X
Prize Won Times 4
1 in 14.33
3X
Prize Won Times 3
1 in 3.31
2X
Prize Won Times 2
1 in 1.79

Odds When the 10x multiplier is not available

Power PlayPrize Times Power PlayOdds
5X
Prize Won Times 5
1 in 21
4X
Prize Won Times 4
1 in 14
3X
Prize Won Times 3
1 in 3.23
2X
Prize Won Times 2
1 in 1.75
    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
    23351 Posts
    Online
    Posted: October 15, 2015, 8:55 am - IP Logged

    <Moved to Jackpot Games forum>

    Please post in the appropriate forum ... thank you.

      ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

      United States
      Member #169277
      October 10, 2015
      630 Posts
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      Posted: October 18, 2015, 1:47 pm - IP Logged

      I already didn't like that the second prize with powerplay was capped at 2 mil,  the way the odds are skewed on picking the powerplay multiplier makes it look worse with the change. 

      At least with MM, megaplier also applies to the 5+0 prize, and 3x and 5x multipliers are more likely.  (A couple of times I have gotten the 3x multiplier with small prizes, for $15 payout instead of $5. )

      All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead.

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
        United States
        Member #146344
        September 1, 2013
        1131 Posts
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        Posted: October 18, 2015, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

        A good rule of thumb is that when lotteries make changes (even tweaks) to their games they are rarely done to the players' benefit.

        Using last years' data we would expect about 2 draws a year where the 10x multiplier hits.

        I personally think it was a mistake for them not to change the 2nd prize in some way. They made it harder to win yet it is still stuck at the $2 million. At the same time I think the only reason they made any changes to the non-jackpot tiers was to make it look like they were tweaking the game overall, when in reality they just wanted to change the odds of the top prize. Originally they planned a much more comprehensive overhaul of the game with the addition of a separate PowerPlay-esque mini game, but that proved too confusing and controversial after the failure of Monopoly Millionaires' Club.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19900 Posts
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          Posted: October 20, 2015, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

          I already didn't like that the second prize with powerplay was capped at 2 mil,  the way the odds are skewed on picking the powerplay multiplier makes it look worse with the change. 

          At least with MM, megaplier also applies to the 5+0 prize, and 3x and 5x multipliers are more likely.  (A couple of times I have gotten the 3x multiplier with small prizes, for $15 payout instead of $5. )

          All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead.

          "All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead."

          If its jackpot ever reaches a ½ billion $, I'll be able to think of one.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
            The Quantum Master
            West Concord, MN
            United States
            Member #21
            December 7, 2001
            3684 Posts
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            Posted: October 20, 2015, 1:31 pm - IP Logged

            Also note the Power Play number is RNG.

            Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
            Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
            Use at your own risk.

            Order is a Subset of Chaos
            Knowledge is Beyond Belief
            Wisdom is Not Censored
            Douglas Paul Smallish
            Jehocifer

              JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
              The Quantum Master
              West Concord, MN
              United States
              Member #21
              December 7, 2001
              3684 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: October 20, 2015, 2:14 pm - IP Logged
              Power PlayPrize Times Power Play

              Odds

              Probabilities

              10X
              Prize Won Times 10
              1 in 43
              5X
              Prize Won Times 5
              1 in 21.5
              4X
              Prize Won Times 4
              1 in 14.33
              3X
              Prize Won Times 3
              1 in 3.31
              2X
              Prize Won Times 2
              1 in 1.79

              Based on these odds probabilities.

              The pseudo balls would be:

              10x 1 ball
              5x 2 balls
              4x 3 balls
              3x13 balls
              2x24 balls

              But, as we all know, RNG has no balls.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

                JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                The Quantum Master
                West Concord, MN
                United States
                Member #21
                December 7, 2001
                3684 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: October 20, 2015, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                We ran a one year Disimulation on those distributions.

                 

                IndexDateDisimulated Power Play
                12015-10-073x
                22015-10-102x
                32015-10-142x
                42015-10-173x
                52015-10-2110x
                62015-10-242x
                72015-10-282x
                82015-10-312x
                92015-11-042x
                102015-11-072x
                112015-11-114x
                122015-11-143x
                132015-11-185x
                142015-11-213x
                152015-11-252x
                162015-11-282x
                172015-12-022x
                182015-12-052x
                192015-12-093x
                202015-12-123x
                212015-12-162x
                222015-12-193x
                232015-12-234x
                242015-12-262x
                252015-12-302x
                262016-01-022x
                272016-01-063x
                282016-01-092x
                292016-01-132x
                302016-01-163x
                312016-01-202x
                322016-01-232x
                332016-01-273x
                342016-01-302x
                352016-02-032x
                362016-02-063x
                372016-02-102x
                382016-02-134x
                392016-02-173x
                402016-02-202x
                412016-02-242x
                422016-02-275x
                432016-03-023x
                442016-03-053x
                452016-03-092x
                462016-03-122x
                472016-03-162x
                482016-03-193x
                492016-03-232x
                502016-03-2610x
                512016-03-303x
                522016-04-023x
                532016-04-062x
                542016-04-094x
                552016-04-132x
                562016-04-162x
                572016-04-202x
                582016-04-232x
                592016-04-272x
                602016-04-302x
                612016-05-043x
                622016-05-072x
                632016-05-113x
                642016-05-143x
                652016-05-182x
                662016-05-213x
                672016-05-252x
                682016-05-282x
                692016-06-013x
                702016-06-042x
                712016-06-083x
                722016-06-113x
                732016-06-152x
                742016-06-182x
                752016-06-222x
                762016-06-252x
                772016-06-292x
                782016-07-022x
                792016-07-062x
                802016-07-092x
                812016-07-132x
                822016-07-163x
                832016-07-202x
                842016-07-233x
                852016-07-273x
                862016-07-303x
                872016-08-032x
                882016-08-062x
                892016-08-102x
                902016-08-133x
                912016-08-173x
                922016-08-203x
                932016-08-242x
                942016-08-273x
                952016-08-314x
                962016-09-035x
                972016-09-072x
                982016-09-104x
                992016-09-142x
                1002016-09-173x
                1012016-09-213x
                1022016-09-242x
                1032016-09-282x
                1042016-10-012x

                Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                Use at your own risk.

                Order is a Subset of Chaos
                Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                Wisdom is Not Censored
                Douglas Paul Smallish
                Jehocifer

                  ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #169277
                  October 10, 2015
                  630 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: October 20, 2015, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                  "All in all, I can't think of a single reason to spend $2 (or $3) on powerball instead of choosing MM instead."

                  If its jackpot ever reaches a ½ billion $, I'll be able to think of one.

                  I don't think 500 mil would make me any happier than 50 mil would.  Heck, I'd be ecstatic with the 15 mil MM starting jackpot, 5 mil cash after taxes.

                    Avatar
                    Jacksonville
                    United States
                    Member #153806
                    March 26, 2014
                    363 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 22, 2015, 9:51 pm - IP Logged

                    We ran a one year Disimulation on those distributions.

                     

                    IndexDateDisimulated Power Play
                    12015-10-073x
                    22015-10-102x
                    32015-10-142x
                    42015-10-173x
                    52015-10-2110x
                    62015-10-242x
                    72015-10-282x
                    82015-10-312x
                    92015-11-042x
                    102015-11-072x
                    112015-11-114x
                    122015-11-143x
                    132015-11-185x
                    142015-11-213x
                    152015-11-252x
                    162015-11-282x
                    172015-12-022x
                    182015-12-052x
                    192015-12-093x
                    202015-12-123x
                    212015-12-162x
                    222015-12-193x
                    232015-12-234x
                    242015-12-262x
                    252015-12-302x
                    262016-01-022x
                    272016-01-063x
                    282016-01-092x
                    292016-01-132x
                    302016-01-163x
                    312016-01-202x
                    322016-01-232x
                    332016-01-273x
                    342016-01-302x
                    352016-02-032x
                    362016-02-063x
                    372016-02-102x
                    382016-02-134x
                    392016-02-173x
                    402016-02-202x
                    412016-02-242x
                    422016-02-275x
                    432016-03-023x
                    442016-03-053x
                    452016-03-092x
                    462016-03-122x
                    472016-03-162x
                    482016-03-193x
                    492016-03-232x
                    502016-03-2610x
                    512016-03-303x
                    522016-04-023x
                    532016-04-062x
                    542016-04-094x
                    552016-04-132x
                    562016-04-162x
                    572016-04-202x
                    582016-04-232x
                    592016-04-272x
                    602016-04-302x
                    612016-05-043x
                    622016-05-072x
                    632016-05-113x
                    642016-05-143x
                    652016-05-182x
                    662016-05-213x
                    672016-05-252x
                    682016-05-282x
                    692016-06-013x
                    702016-06-042x
                    712016-06-083x
                    722016-06-113x
                    732016-06-152x
                    742016-06-182x
                    752016-06-222x
                    762016-06-252x
                    772016-06-292x
                    782016-07-022x
                    792016-07-062x
                    802016-07-092x
                    812016-07-132x
                    822016-07-163x
                    832016-07-202x
                    842016-07-233x
                    852016-07-273x
                    862016-07-303x
                    872016-08-032x
                    882016-08-062x
                    892016-08-102x
                    902016-08-133x
                    912016-08-173x
                    922016-08-203x
                    932016-08-242x
                    942016-08-273x
                    952016-08-314x
                    962016-09-035x
                    972016-09-072x
                    982016-09-104x
                    992016-09-142x
                    1002016-09-173x
                    1012016-09-213x
                    1022016-09-242x
                    1032016-09-282x
                    1042016-10-012x

                    The "disimulation" is pretty cool.  It has one flaw and that is the 10X multiplier goes away once the jackpot hits $150M.  But it looks like the 10X may hit once a year if we are lucky.  Not particularly impressive.

                      JADELottery's avatar - YingYangYong 01.PNG
                      The Quantum Master
                      West Concord, MN
                      United States
                      Member #21
                      December 7, 2001
                      3684 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 22, 2015, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                      The "disimulation" is pretty cool.  It has one flaw and that is the 10X multiplier goes away once the jackpot hits $150M.  But it looks like the 10X may hit once a year if we are lucky.  Not particularly impressive.

                      Just a what if.

                      Yeah, that's how they suck ya in, consistent inconsistency.

                      What'd you think you were going to win BIG....  ha-ha-ha-haaa.

                      Meet my little friend...

                      Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                      Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                      Use at your own risk.

                      Order is a Subset of Chaos
                      Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                      Wisdom is Not Censored
                      Douglas Paul Smallish
                      Jehocifer

                        maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
                        Lavender Rocket

                        United States
                        Member #124616
                        March 16, 2012
                        2642 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: October 23, 2015, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

                        Just a what if.

                        Yeah, that's how they suck ya in, consistent inconsistency.

                        What'd you think you were going to win BIG....  ha-ha-ha-haaa.

                        Meet my little friend...

                        Hurray! nicely done.  :)