I Maintain that the Theory Any Powerball Combo can Win Is BS

Reply #30

Tucker Black — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 18:05:56 GMT

You or the computer pick random positions on the playslip by throwing a dart at a random spot on it (if you hit a spot that you've already picked, toss that and repeat). Or another way is to have your own set of Chinese character balls at home, and reach in and grab one at random and mark off the corresponding spot on your playslip and repeat (without replacement) until you have the 5 (or whatever # needed) symbols.

In other words, lottery numbers have no special mathematical meaning to them.... [ More ]

Reply #29

SergeM — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 16:08:18 GMT

How can I skip the first 100 000 000 years

Reply #28

Tialuvslotto — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 12:13:02 GMT

I imagine they use Chinese characters in China! Or, maybe not...I bought a Pick 3 ticket while I was in Japan and it had numbers on it.

We were just discussing this topic on the Systems board: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/299642/4479815

Also, if you see the winning numbers as merely symbols with no mathematical meaning, how would you go about picking which symbols to put on your playslip? QP

Reply #27

Tucker Black — Fri, 26 Feb 2016 06:53:11 GMT

There is nothing special about consecutive numbers being drawn. The balls could have Chinese characters on them and the probability of winning would not change, yet the concepts of sum and consecutive or anything else to do with arithmetic would obviously not exist. We use numbers for the drawing because it's much easier for the players to figure out if they've won than if we used Chinese characters.

Reply #26

meenzy — Wed, 03 Feb 2016 23:13:42 GMT

Howdy RL,

Im a newbie to LP but really have enjoyed it not to mention learning lots already. I am curious why you think the balls are loaded premixed? I think that

the way they are counted and loaded are in numbered order. I googled a picture of a drawing and this is what I noticed. Its blurry but I believe i can see the numbers

15,16,17 loaded in the machine right before the 2016 record setting drawing. Not sure how much this helps but one would think it could account for the

1/2 ra... [ More ]

Reply #25

KY Floyd — Tue, 19 Jan 2016 06:23:29 GMT

Yeah your probably calling this stupid or idiotic so be it.

Of course we are. Especially since you said this:

Yes Probability wise this can happen

For any particular drawing there may be some very slight variation in how likely some combinations are. That's because there may be very minor differences in the weights of the balls, and the surfaces may have some minor variance in friction, but has absolutely nothing to do with the numbers on the balls. In the short term that's somewhat... [ More ]

Reply #24

JADELottery — Tue, 19 Jan 2016 02:11:33 GMT

Years of Playing Percent Probability of Winning

1

0.0000357133824513411%

10 0.0003571332505503120%

100 0.0035712751112360100%

1,000 0.0357070123562120000%

10,000 0.3564969237050410000%

100,000 3.5083190207180000000%

1,000,000 30.0321187328359000000%

10,000,000 97.1881818482441000000%

100,000,000 99.9999999999999691061

Reply #23

JADELottery — Tue, 19 Jan 2016 00:24:43 GMT

To have a 'p%' probability of winning you have to play for 'd' Draws or for 'y' Years.

0.00001% 29 0.28

0.00002% 58 0.56

0.00003% 88 0.84

0.00004% 117 1.12

0.00005% 146 1.40

0.00006% 175 1.68

0.00007% 205 1.96

0.00008% 234 2.24

0.00009% 263 2.52

0.00010% 292 2.80

0.00020% 584 5.60

0.00030% 877 8.40

0.00040% 1,169 11.20

0.00050% 1,461 14.00

0.00060% 1,753 16.80

0.00070% 2,045 19.60

0.00080% 2,338 22.40

0.000... [ More ]

Reply #22

dddwww — Mon, 18 Jan 2016 23:30:24 GMT

Nope, if you play the Powerball 292,201,338 times you might win on the 1st ticket, the 3,456,789th ticket or never.

You have a 292201337/292201338 chance of NOT picking the winning ticket on each draw (99.99999965777%)

If you participate in 292201338 draws they you have a (292201337/292201338)**292201338 chance of NOT winning

That's roughly a 36.8% chance of NOT winning so you have a 63.2% chance of winning

Reply #21

GoogilyMoogily — Mon, 18 Jan 2016 21:29:17 GMT

If you only played one number per draw for 292,201,338 draws, you are bound to hit at least once. Amiright?

Let's see, at 2 draws per week, that's 146,100,669 weeks of plays. Divide that by roughly 52.178 weeks a year is 2,800,013 years.

It only takes 2.8 million years. Easy peasy mac and cheesy.

Just saying the odds are astronomical.

Doesn't stop me from dropping a buck or two occasionally.

Gotta dip that toe into the pool of chance.

Reply #20

TooTallLuke — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 18:46:04 GMT

A few years ago I had a program that a friend wrote for me to simulate 649 draws.

The program would generating about 60 million draws per hour, 1.5 billion draws per day.

I would select the combination and let the program run for a couple of days.

Didn't matter what combination I used (1 2 3 4 5 6, 2 4 6 8 10 12, 1 5 14 23 24 39) the results of how many times each combination would show up were always pretty much the same.

I'll check around and see if I still have the program on one... [ More ]

Reply #19

dddwww — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 14:37:28 GMT

Now for something fun.

Since the new Powerball went into affect with only 26 balls there have been exactly 29 drawings.

If I told you that insiders have been cheating and have never used a ball number 26 and instead replaced it with a 2nd ball numbered 10 can you determine from the statistics of those 29 drawings that there is something anomalous with the 26 ball and the 10 ball?

Nope, even though the 10 ball has been picked 4 times and the 26 ball never that tells us exactly NOTHI... [ More ]

Reply #18

dddwww — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 14:15:10 GMT

Powerball also uses multiple picking machines and multiple sets of balls, chosen randomly prior to the game. So to compare with roulette, it is like watching the numbers from multiple roulette tables, not knowing what numbers come from which, and trying to determine some wheel bias based on that and then use that to be on a table that likely won't be the one with the bias.

Reply #17

dddwww — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 13:54:32 GMT

A sequence like 1-2-3-4-5-6 will likely never be drawn not because it is a sequential set of numbers but because ANY set of 6 powerball numbers will likely never be drawn.

A random number generator need not be based on mathematics , ie a formula.

Roulette is a very random process and powerball has orders of magnitude more randomness to it that a single steel ball traveling around a rail on a rotating roulette wheel and no there is no proof that some numbers are more likely than

Reply #16

Zebekyia — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 04:51:17 GMT

I agree that a sequence like 1-2-3-4-5-6 will never be drawn. With math and probability you can prove that it would with say a random number generator. However, Powerball is a ball drawn game which doesn't follow the mathematics of a RNG. If you were to truly look at the possible combinations in Powerball you would have to study the machine that is used to draw them including the timing, the order the balls are dropped, and the behavior of how the balls are mixed. Trying to evaluate something wi... [ More ]

Reply #15

amber123 — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 04:05:33 GMT

The last PB winning numbers were 4-8-19-27-34--10

I'll bet anyone who is willing any amount they choose, that this combination won't show again for many millions of simulations. Just like 1-2-3-4-5 and 6,

Everywhere love is all around

Reply #14

amber123 — Sat, 16 Jan 2016 03:52:44 GMT

I Maintain that the Theory Any Powerball Combo can Win Is BS

1-2-3-4-5 and PB 6 have the same chance as any other combination. Just because you feel that sequence is unlikely to happen, doesn't change the fact that it still has the same chance as any other combination.

Reply #13

dddwww — Fri, 15 Jan 2016 06:32:59 GMT

All combinations are equally likely.

In Powerball there is a 1 in 292 million chance of 1-2-3-4-5-6 being chosen

There is also a 1 in 292 million chance of 4-8-19-27-34-10 being chosen

Pointing out that 1-2-3-4-5-6 has never come up before is of exactly as much value as pointing out that

4-18-19-27-34-10 had never come up before

Go ahead, run a simulation and tell us how long on average it takes for 4-18-19-27-34-10 to come up,

or 18-19-20-46-51-12 or ANY other c... [ More ]

Reply #12

SergeM — Wed, 13 Jan 2016 17:29:37 GMT

1 apple + 1 banana = 2 fruitcakes

Reply #11

SergeM — Wed, 13 Jan 2016 17:21:46 GMT

Not every combination will win, that is sure. If the game lives for 1000 drawings, maximum 1000 distinct combinations could have paid the jackpot or shared a jackpot.

Eventually one combination will repeat continuously and it is likely that the shut down the game if that happens.

Maybe I think more than you do. Get off that beer and cigarette or whatever you are smoking, drinking, sniffing, eating or putting on yourself

Reply #10

Deo-nonfortuna — Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:29:11 GMT

I agree, but like any other lotto games PB gotta follow certain rules like most/least frequently appearing digits, due pairs, triads, consecutive, PW # etc. Maybe stats can help.

Powerball Statistics

Powerball

Powerball Statistics

This Powerball statistics page displays a full list of useful numerical information from this popular lottery. Included on this page are the most common Powerball numbers, most overdue numbers and those drawn the least, as well as information on the... [ More ]

Reply #9

BrunoDog4 — Tue, 12 Jan 2016 13:13:00 GMT

Thanks for the info I will

Reply #8

sthl129 — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 23:26:46 GMT

I heard about the 1-2-3-4-5 in the PA lottery and tons of people winning. Exactly why playing a sequence of numbers is a bad idea. I have been running a monte carlo simulation all day on one set of numbers (not sequential) and I have simulated 47,134,000 and counting random draws which would take about 450,000 years using the current PB schedule. The results? I have spent around 94,000,000 dollars and won around 16,000,000 for a -83% ROI. I have won 1 million dollars only 5 times (5 white balls

Reply #7

RL-RANDOMLOGIC — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 21:52:16 GMT

A couple years ago PA had a drawing with the numbers 1-2-3-4-5. I think there were thousands of winners

who all won a few bucks. Playing consecutive numbers is a bad idea for this reason but as far as the odds

go, it's a possibility and as such it can and does happen. These sort of sets look impossible to show but

that's purely an illusion. Take any set you choose and the chances are that it has never been drawn by any

lottery. If we look we can find lines that have hit more than onc... [ More ]

Reply #6

lakerben — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:40:02 GMT

I'm going to play some consecutive numbers for the next pb draw.

Reply #5

sthl129 — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 16:24:44 GMT

Why don't you test this theory out yourself. There is a good simulator online that is like a monte carlo simulation. You input your numbers and it will do 1,000's of random draws each second and tracks your ROI, Years Played, and some other metrics. If you do an Internet search for Adam Lottery Simulator and chose the first hit you can find the simulator in that post. I think in the post the guy mentions it took 13k years to hit 1,2,3,4,5 PB:6.

Let us know what your study shows.

Reply #4

phileight — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 14:48:11 GMT

I just set the program to generate 5 random numbers 1-69. then checked to see if they were consecutive numbers and keep looping until they were. in 4 trials (not very scientific) i had these results: 1 st run took 198456 simulated drawings, 2nd run 70812, 3rd run 156783, and 4 th run 141966 . so yes, 5 consecutive numbers in 1 draw. math says this should happen every 169000 drawings +- . there over 11 million possible combinations there are 65 combinations with 5 sequential numbers. 11 million/6... [ More ]

Reply #3

BrunoDog4 — Mon, 11 Jan 2016 12:17:27 GMT

Haven't used excel in years. So you simulated powerball drawings and you actually physically came up with 5 consecutive numbers on one simulated drawing

Reply #2

phileight — Sun, 10 Jan 2016 21:19:40 GMT

according to excel combin function there are a few more than 11 million combinations . there are 65 ways that 5 numbers in sequence could occur. so 11 million divided by 65 gives about 169000, so a sequential draw should occur sometime within the next 3254 yrs.

out of curiosity i used excels random function to see how long it would take to spit out a sequential combination. after 4 runs 198456, 70812, 156783, and 141966 fairly close to the expected

a sequential number group could be in t... [ More ]

Reply #1

Tialuvslotto — Sun, 10 Jan 2016 15:08:02 GMT

Why so defensive? You are right -- these events are extremely unlikely.

What you are missing, however, is the nature of randomness. 5 consecutive could happen in 256 years or it could happen in the next draw and again 12 draws after that. Or anything else in between.

I Maintain that the Theory Any Powerball Combo can Win Is BS

BrunoDog4 — Sun, 10 Jan 2016 13:32:25 GMT

Is there any College to Contact that would run a non-stop Powerball Computer Simulation for say a year shooting out winning combinations every 10 seconds or so? The law of probability says all numbers have equal chance of winning. I say this is BS I maintain that if Powerball Lasted 1000 years you'd still never see a winner with 5 consecutive numbers in a row or even 6 numbers in a row ( i.e. Powerball __ 1,2,3,4,5 or Powerball __ 19,20,21,22,23 and so on or 1 Powerball 2,3,4,5,6 Yes Probability... [ More ]