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I Maintain that the Theory Any Powerball Combo can Win Is BS

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 9 months ago by Tucker Black.

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Posted: January 10, 2016, 8:32 am - IP Logged

Is there any College to Contact that would run a non-stop Powerball Computer Simulation for say a year shooting out winning combinations every 10 seconds or so? The law of probability says all numbers have equal chance of winning. I say this is BS I maintain that if Powerball Lasted 1000 years you'd still never see a winner with 5 consecutive numbers in a row or even 6 numbers in a row ( i.e. Powerball __ 1,2,3,4,5  or Powerball __ 19,20,21,22,23 and so on or 1 Powerball 2,3,4,5,6   Yes Probability wise this can happen but the reality is it never has or won't.  I know this sounds like nonsense but is it?

I don't know what a name for what I'm saying is called. I say the same in things like the JFK Assassination as what are the odds that The Magic Bullet Theory would happen in an Assassination Attempt meaning while the odds of the Magic Bullet Theory happening by itself are quite large, the odds of it happening during a Presidential Assassination, are astronomical. 

Yeah your probably calling this stupid or idiotic so be it.

    Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
    Texas
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    Posted: January 10, 2016, 10:08 am - IP Logged

    Why so defensive?  You are right -- these events are extremely unlikely. 

    What you are missing, however, is the nature of randomness.  5 consecutive could happen in 256 years or it could happen in the next draw and again 12 draws after that.  Or anything else in between.

    "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

    ~Robert A. Heinlein

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      Posted: January 10, 2016, 4:19 pm - IP Logged

      according to excel combin function there are a few more than 11 million combinations .  there are 65 ways that 5 numbers in sequence could occur. so 11 million divided by 65 gives about 169000, so a sequential draw should occur sometime within the next 3254 yrs. 

      out of curiosity i used excels random function to see how long it would take to spit out a sequential combination.  after 4 runs   198456,  70812,  156783, and 141966  fairly close to the expected 

      a sequential number group could be in the next draw.  every combination has the same probability.

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        Posted: January 11, 2016, 7:17 am - IP Logged

        Haven't used excel in years. So you simulated powerball drawings and you actually "physically" came up with 5 consecutive numbers on one simulated drawing?

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          Posted: January 11, 2016, 9:48 am - IP Logged

          Haven't used excel in years. So you simulated powerball drawings and you actually "physically" came up with 5 consecutive numbers on one simulated drawing?

          I just set the program to generate 5 random numbers 1-69. then checked to see if they were consecutive numbers and keep looping until they were.  in 4 trials (not very scientific) i had these results: 1 st run took  198456 simulated drawings, 2nd run 70812,  3rd run 156783, and 4 th run 141966 .  so yes, 5 consecutive numbers in 1 draw. math says this should happen every 169000 drawings +- .  there over 11 million possible combinations there are 65 combinations with 5 sequential numbers.  11 million/65=169000 and change.

          the math is good to know but as you see you need a lot more to get a playable number.

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            Posted: January 11, 2016, 11:24 am - IP Logged

            Why don't you test this theory out yourself. There is a good simulator online that is like a monte carlo simulation. You input your numbers and it will do 1,000's of random draws each second and tracks your ROI, Years Played, and some other metrics. If you do an Internet search for "Adam Lottery Simulator" and chose the first hit you can find the simulator in that post. I think in the post the guy mentions it took 13k years to hit 1,2,3,4,5 PB:6.

            Let us know what your study shows.

              lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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              Posted: January 11, 2016, 11:40 am - IP Logged

              I'm going to play some consecutive numbers for the next pb draw.

              Lurking

              How about them cowboys!

               

               

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                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                Posted: January 11, 2016, 4:52 pm - IP Logged

                A couple years ago PA had a drawing with the numbers 1-2-3-4-5.  I think there were thousands of winners

                who all won a few bucks.  Playing consecutive numbers is a bad idea for this reason but as far as the odds

                go, it's a possibility and as such it can and does happen.   These sort of sets look impossible to show but

                that's purely an illusion.  Take any set you choose and the chances are that it has never been drawn by any

                lottery.  If we look we can find lines that have hit more than once but that's also within the realm if possibility.

                In most ball-drop lotteries the balls are not entered into the hopper in any sort of order so it's not like the

                balls 1-2-3-4-5 etc.. go from order to chaos then back to order.  Math can be used to assess these sort of

                assumption and derive the truth.   Many deem the lottery completely random and as such anyone attempting

                to predict their numbers must be lacking math skills and or is delusional.  I don't think true random exist so 

                I fall somewhere in the middle of possible and impossible.     

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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                  Posted: January 11, 2016, 6:26 pm - IP Logged

                  A couple years ago PA had a drawing with the numbers 1-2-3-4-5.  I think there were thousands of winners

                  who all won a few bucks.  Playing consecutive numbers is a bad idea for this reason but as far as the odds

                  go, it's a possibility and as such it can and does happen.   These sort of sets look impossible to show but

                  that's purely an illusion.  Take any set you choose and the chances are that it has never been drawn by any

                  lottery.  If we look we can find lines that have hit more than once but that's also within the realm if possibility.

                  In most ball-drop lotteries the balls are not entered into the hopper in any sort of order so it's not like the

                  balls 1-2-3-4-5 etc.. go from order to chaos then back to order.  Math can be used to assess these sort of

                  assumption and derive the truth.   Many deem the lottery completely random and as such anyone attempting

                  to predict their numbers must be lacking math skills and or is delusional.  I don't think true random exist so 

                  I fall somewhere in the middle of possible and impossible.     

                  RL

                  I heard about the 1-2-3-4-5 in the PA lottery and tons of people winning. Exactly why playing a sequence of numbers is a bad idea. I have been running a monte carlo simulation all day on one set of numbers (not sequential) and I have simulated 47,134,000 and counting random draws which would take about 450,000 years using the current PB schedule. The results? I have spent around 94,000,000 dollars and won around 16,000,000 for a -83% ROI. I have won 1 million dollars only 5 times (5 white balls) and have yet to hit the jackpot.... Just puts things in perspective on how unlikely it is to win the powerball.

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                    Posted: January 12, 2016, 8:13 am - IP Logged

                    Thanks for the info I will

                      Deo-nonfortuna's avatar - hqdefault
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                      Posted: January 12, 2016, 8:29 am - IP Logged

                      I agree, but like any other lotto games PB gotta follow certain rules like most/least frequently appearing digits, due pairs, triads, consecutive, PW # etc. Maybe stats can help.

                       

                      Powerball Statistics

                      › Powerball Statistics

                      This Powerball statistics page displays a full list of useful numerical information from this popular lottery. Included on this page are the most common Powerball numbers, most overdue numbers and those drawn the least, as well as information on the most common pairs, triplets and which groups of numbers are commonly drawn consecutively.

                      The statistics on this page include all Powerball draws up to and including Saturday January 9th 2016.

                      Powerball main Numbers Frequency Table

                      1= 3413= 4025= 3737= 2649= 3961= 1
                      2= 3814= 4426= 3738= 3250= 3062= 4
                      3= 3315= 3127= 2639= 4151= 2963= 3
                      4= 3016= 3628= 4040= 3552= 3564= 3
                      5= 3617= 3729= 4241= 3353= 3065= 2
                      6= 3418= 3030= 3442= 3254= 4466= 2
                      7= 3919= 3731= 3943= 2955= 3967= 2
                      8= 4220= 2732= 3644= 3656= 3768= 4
                      9= 3821= 2433= 3245= 3757= 3569= 3
                      10= 3822= 3334= 3546= 3558= 33   
                      11= 3823= 3835= 2847= 3059= 35   
                      12= 3624= 3436= 3448= 3660= 1   

                      Powerball number Frequency Table

                      1= 152= 103= 94= 75= 136= 11
                      7= 178= 79= 910= 1311= 1212= 11
                      13= 1314= 1215= 1216= 1517= 1718= 15
                      19= 1220= 1421= 822= 1323= 1224= 11
                      25= 1226= 1027= 1328= 1229= 2030= 7
                      31= 432= 1233= 1634= 835= 14   

                      Most Common Powerball Winning Numbers

                      Ball Number5414829391329
                      Frequency44444242414020
                      Last Drawn13
                      days
                      ago
                      12/30/15
                      31
                      days
                      ago
                      12/12/15
                      111
                      days
                      ago
                      9/23/15
                      10
                      days
                      ago
                      1/02/16
                      104
                      days
                      ago
                      9/30/15
                      38
                      days
                      ago
                      12/05/15
                      213
                      days
                      ago
                      6/13/15

                      Most Overdue Numbers

                      Ball Number13352485131
                      Last Drawn237
                      days
                      ago
                      5/20/15
                      122
                      days
                      ago
                      9/12/15
                      122
                      days
                      ago
                      9/12/15
                      118
                      days
                      ago
                      9/16/15
                      111
                      days
                      ago
                      9/23/15
                      111
                      days
                      ago
                      9/23/15
                      465
                      days
                      ago
                      10/04/14

                      Least Often Picked Numbers

                      Ball Number61606566676331
                      Frequency1122234
                      Last Drawn13
                      days
                      ago
                      12/30/15
                      80
                      days
                      ago
                      10/24/15
                      17
                      days
                      ago
                      12/26/15
                      45
                      days
                      ago
                      11/28/15
                      20
                      days
                      ago
                      12/23/15
                      6
                      days
                      ago
                      1/06/16
                      465
                      days
                      ago
                      10/04/14

                      Most common pairs and most common consecutive pairs


                      Ball Pairs:Consecutive Ball Pairs:
                      NumbersFrequency
                      324133
                      152632
                      152732
                      92331
                      154331
                      NumbersFrequency
                      7830
                      151630
                      444527
                      141525
                      131424

                      Most common triplets and most common consecutive triplets


                      Common Triplets:Consecutive Triplets:
                      NumbersFrequency
                      1018458
                      125296
                      213356
                      412386
                      522366
                      NumbersFrequency
                      3738393
                      7892
                      1415162
                      2021222
                      4344452
                      Powerball Shocked Lady
                      $1.4 Billion!
                      Draw Date: Wednesday January 13th 2016
                      days1hours10mins36secs46
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                      Close ×
                        SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                        Posted: January 13, 2016, 12:21 pm - IP Logged

                        Not every combination will win, that is sure. If the game lives for 1000 drawings, maximum 1000 distinct combinations could have paid the jackpot or shared a jackpot.

                        Eventually one combination will repeat continuously and it is likely that the shut down the game if that happens.

                        Maybe I think more than you do. Get off that beer and cigarette or whatever you are smoking, drinking, sniffing, eating or putting on yourself!

                          SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                          Posted: January 13, 2016, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

                          I agree, but like any other lotto games PB gotta follow certain rules like most/least frequently appearing digits, due pairs, triads, consecutive, PW # etc. Maybe stats can help.

                           

                          Powerball Statistics

                          › Powerball Statistics

                          This Powerball statistics page displays a full list of useful numerical information from this popular lottery. Included on this page are the most common Powerball numbers, most overdue numbers and those drawn the least, as well as information on the most common pairs, triplets and which groups of numbers are commonly drawn consecutively.

                          The statistics on this page include all Powerball draws up to and including Saturday January 9th 2016.

                          Powerball main Numbers Frequency Table

                          1= 3413= 4025= 3737= 2649= 3961= 1
                          2= 3814= 4426= 3738= 3250= 3062= 4
                          3= 3315= 3127= 2639= 4151= 2963= 3
                          4= 3016= 3628= 4040= 3552= 3564= 3
                          5= 3617= 3729= 4241= 3353= 3065= 2
                          6= 3418= 3030= 3442= 3254= 4466= 2
                          7= 3919= 3731= 3943= 2955= 3967= 2
                          8= 4220= 2732= 3644= 3656= 3768= 4
                          9= 3821= 2433= 3245= 3757= 3569= 3
                          10= 3822= 3334= 3546= 3558= 33   
                          11= 3823= 3835= 2847= 3059= 35   
                          12= 3624= 3436= 3448= 3660= 1   

                          Powerball number Frequency Table

                          1= 152= 103= 94= 75= 136= 11
                          7= 178= 79= 910= 1311= 1212= 11
                          13= 1314= 1215= 1216= 1517= 1718= 15
                          19= 1220= 1421= 822= 1323= 1224= 11
                          25= 1226= 1027= 1328= 1229= 2030= 7
                          31= 432= 1233= 1634= 835= 14   

                          Most Common Powerball Winning Numbers

                          Ball Number5414829391329
                          Frequency44444242414020
                          Last Drawn13
                          days
                          ago
                          12/30/15
                          31
                          days
                          ago
                          12/12/15
                          111
                          days
                          ago
                          9/23/15
                          10
                          days
                          ago
                          1/02/16
                          104
                          days
                          ago
                          9/30/15
                          38
                          days
                          ago
                          12/05/15
                          213
                          days
                          ago
                          6/13/15

                          Most Overdue Numbers

                          Ball Number13352485131
                          Last Drawn237
                          days
                          ago
                          5/20/15
                          122
                          days
                          ago
                          9/12/15
                          122
                          days
                          ago
                          9/12/15
                          118
                          days
                          ago
                          9/16/15
                          111
                          days
                          ago
                          9/23/15
                          111
                          days
                          ago
                          9/23/15
                          465
                          days
                          ago
                          10/04/14

                          Least Often Picked Numbers

                          Ball Number61606566676331
                          Frequency1122234
                          Last Drawn13
                          days
                          ago
                          12/30/15
                          80
                          days
                          ago
                          10/24/15
                          17
                          days
                          ago
                          12/26/15
                          45
                          days
                          ago
                          11/28/15
                          20
                          days
                          ago
                          12/23/15
                          6
                          days
                          ago
                          1/06/16
                          465
                          days
                          ago
                          10/04/14

                          Most common pairs and most common consecutive pairs


                          Ball Pairs:Consecutive Ball Pairs:
                          NumbersFrequency
                          324133
                          152632
                          152732
                          92331
                          154331
                          NumbersFrequency
                          7830
                          151630
                          444527
                          141525
                          131424

                          Most common triplets and most common consecutive triplets


                          Common Triplets:Consecutive Triplets:
                          NumbersFrequency
                          1018458
                          125296
                          213356
                          412386
                          522366
                          NumbersFrequency
                          3738393
                          7892
                          1415162
                          2021222
                          4344452
                          Powerball Shocked Lady
                          $1.4 Billion!
                          Draw Date: Wednesday January 13th 2016
                          days1hours10mins36secs46
                          Play Now
                          Close ×

                          1 apple  + 1 banana = 2 fruitcakes

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                            Posted: January 15, 2016, 1:32 am - IP Logged

                            All combinations are equally likely.

                             

                            In Powerball there is a 1 in 292 million chance of 1-2-3-4-5-6 being chosen

                            There is also a 1 in 292 million chance of  4-8-19-27-34-10 being chosen

                             

                            Pointing out that 1-2-3-4-5-6 has never come up before is of exactly as much value as pointing out that

                            4-18-19-27-34-10 had never come up before

                             

                            Go ahead, run a simulation and tell us how long on average it takes for 4-18-19-27-34-10 to come up,

                            or 18-19-20-46-51-12 or ANY other combination.

                             

                            The answer will be the same, every combination comes up on average once in 292 million trials

                             

                            And the odds that 4-18-19-27-34-10 will come up on again Saturday's drawing is EXACTLY the same as any other set of numbers.

                            It is neither less likely or more likely to repeat.

                             

                            The person in Chino who bought the winning ticket on Wed has EXACTLY the same chance of winning again on Sat if he buys the same number of tickets.

                            His odds won't decrease if he buys his tickets in Vermont instead of California and someone who lives in Vermont will not improve their odds of winning by buying their tickets in California.

                             

                            Play Powerball long enough and you will lose $1.80 out of every $2 ticket you buy. Fipping a coin may lead to a streak of 20 heads in a row but over a large number of flips the number of heads will approach 50%.   Pennies don't remember how they were last flipped and balls don't remember which ball was picked last time.  Balls who were picked last week don't get shy and avoid getting picked this week and balls that haven't been picked in a long time don't push to the front of the line and get picked more often in the future.

                              amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                              Posted: January 15, 2016, 10:52 pm - IP Logged

                              Is there any College to Contact that would run a non-stop Powerball Computer Simulation for say a year shooting out winning combinations every 10 seconds or so? The law of probability says all numbers have equal chance of winning. I say this is BS I maintain that if Powerball Lasted 1000 years you'd still never see a winner with 5 consecutive numbers in a row or even 6 numbers in a row ( i.e. Powerball __ 1,2,3,4,5  or Powerball __ 19,20,21,22,23 and so on or 1 Powerball 2,3,4,5,6   Yes Probability wise this can happen but the reality is it never has or won't.  I know this sounds like nonsense but is it?

                              I don't know what a name for what I'm saying is called. I say the same in things like the JFK Assassination as what are the odds that The Magic Bullet Theory would happen in an Assassination Attempt meaning while the odds of the Magic Bullet Theory happening by itself are quite large, the odds of it happening during a Presidential Assassination, are astronomical. 

                              Yeah your probably calling this stupid or idiotic so be it.

                              I Maintain that the Theory Any Powerball Combo can Win Is BS

                              1-2-3-4-5 and PB 6 have the same chance as any other combination. Just because you feel that sequence is unlikely to happen, doesn't change the fact that it still has the same chance as any other combination.