Likelihood of a MM Winner this drawing?

Reply #58

Mariokart21 — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 20:02:15 GMT

I hope there is one winner in this world record Mega Millions drawing for Tuesday October 23rd, 2018! The Mega Millions jackpot is now up to at least $1.6 Billion dollars or $904.9 million dollars if one ticket wins the jackpot and chooses the cash value option or the one time payment lump sum making Hurricane Hung a category 5 storm with sustained winds of 160 miles per hour with gusts of 190 miles per hour everyone especially you DALVIN PAYNE Bringa Timewalkerv lowellm paneagle CDanaT WhoaMama... [ More ]

Reply #57

CDanaT — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 11:42:09 GMT

Perfect call Joey

Reply #56

Big Joey — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 05:17:21 GMT

The Megaball # 7 was drawn which is a cold number like 15. I am thinking at the moment that it will roll higher for Tuesday. #'s 7, 15 are still cold.

Reply #55

Murgatroyd — Sat, 20 Oct 2018 00:46:15 GMT

Mathematically speaking, the probability of there not being a winner is 1 in e^(T*P), where T is the number of tickets sold, P is the probability of a single ticket being a winner, and e is the base of the natural logarithm, approximately 2.718. (Assuming, of course, that the vast majority of tickets have their numbers chosen independently).

In MM, the drawing-to-drawing increase in the jackpot is approximately equal to the number of tickets sold. So, the increase of ~$333M gives right around... [ More ]

Reply #54

CDanaT — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:25:52 GMT

Just stopped and grabbed an extra MM ticket for tonight's draw. Chose the Megaball and did the QP on the 5 white balls................ Good luck tonight

Reply #53

ressuccess — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 15:56:25 GMT

Hurricane Hung could be a Category 4 storm with sustain winds of 135 miles per hour with the Mega Millions jackpot of at least $1 Billion dollars right now before the draw everyone. Right now currently it's a Category 3 storm with sustain winds of 130 miles per hour with the Mega Millions jackpot of right now before the drawing is at $970 million dollars or $548.6 million dollars if one ticket wins the jackpot and chooses the cash value option or the one time payment lump sum for Friday October... [ More ]

Reply #52

ressuccess — Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:34:33 GMT

Hurricane Hung could be a Category 4 storm with sustain winds of up to 135 miles per hour with the Mega Millions jackpot of right now at $1 Billion dollars everyone. Right now it's currently a Category 3 storm with sustain winds of 130 miles per hour with the Mega Millions jackpot of right now before the drawing is at $970 million dollars or $548.6 million dollars if one ticket wins the jackpot and chooses the cash value option or the one time payment lump sum for Friday October 19th everyone in... [ More ]

Reply #51

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 23:52:13 GMT

I voted on it a while back. I figured someone would win it back in the 400s.

Reply #50

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 23:18:19 GMT

This is the website if you want to vote on my topic lowellm: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/322932

Reply #49

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 23:17:12 GMT

Breaking News: The Mega Millions Jackpot has risen to 900 million dollars for Friday October 19th or 513.4 million dollars if one ticket wins the jackpot and chooses the cash value option everyone especially to you CDanaT and lowellm

Reply #48

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 19:58:38 GMT

Thanks, ressuccess! Best of luck to you, too

Reply #47

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 15:43:55 GMT

I hope someone wins this next jackpot on the next draw everyone especially to both of you CDanaT and lowellm

Reply #46

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 15:42:37 GMT

I actually won $4 by matching white ball 3 and the Mega Ball 9 in the last draw everyone

Reply #45

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 14:20:07 GMT

Very true! I haven't bought an Illinois Lottery ticket in a couple of years, but it is creeping up there. $17M, last I checked. That'd be about $9M after taxes and after the Lord gets His cut. I'm not sure if that $17M is an annuity or cash, though. Even so, $5M would retire me just fine

Reply #44

CDanaT — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:54:23 GMT

It's a good time to win the PB or Lotto America or your home state jackpot.... Stay under the radar, slip off into retirement

Reply #43

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:39:57 GMT

LOL! Barbara Streisand

Reply #42

CDanaT — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:34:28 GMT

I have found my reaction to winning the PB tonight and/or the MM on Friday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWSS4j3Z2R4

Reply #41

maximumfun — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:28:20 GMT

Love seeing these stats. thank you for posting them. so my wish is for the game to get up to 900 in sales... so that it has a better chance to roll. it would be lovely to see a 2B$ MM jackpot, and then watch PB chase its own tail trying to catch up.

Reply #40

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:17:28 GMT

Yep, it is strangely satisfying to see even one number on my ticket that matches the number that was drawn! Lord help me the day they all match

Reply #39

CDanaT — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 13:06:41 GMT

Had the MegaBall.....but no others.... won my money back and that is always a good thing. Come on Friday #868MillionBRING-IT

Reply #38

lowellm — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 12:07:31 GMT

YES! I got a Megaball + the 5x multiplier! $10, cha-ching! ;) That makes two wins in a row (but I'm still not tired of WINNING! Come on $868M Jackpot

Reply #37

KY Floyd — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 05:51:40 GMT

868 means sales should be about 177 million tickets. That would mean a 44% chance of a winner, with 1 winner being about 3 times as likely as multiple winners.

If it goes to an even 900 sales should be about 204 million tickets. The chance of a winner would be 49%, with a single winner being about 2.3 times as likely as multiple winners.

If it makes it to an even billion we're looking at about 294 million tickets and a 62% chance of a winner. Or winners, with 2 or more being about 2/3 as l... [ More ]

Reply #36

CDanaT — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 05:09:07 GMT

Well..... that was pretty quick to be posted. Much faster than the last time they had a large jackpot.....

3 - 45 - 49 - 61 - 69 9

Had the Megaball correct, nothing else.

Next Jackpot:$868 Million/$494.5 Million CASH

$311.53 Million NET - After 37% Federal Tax

Good luck to us all with the Powerball tonight

Reply #35

NoCompLotto! — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 04:19:31 GMT

That's the same with Michigan, Ohio and Georgia (Kicker, Booster and Multiplier). All of them have 1x as a Multiplier. It's the chance you take by purchasing that option. I've hit big on every Kicker number, including 1. What I like in Michigan though is that 2x actually has a statistically better chance of dropping than 1x.

Reply #34

Stack47 — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 03:45:21 GMT

The megaplier was 5 . Good luck

Reply #33

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 02:55:54 GMT

Good luck and I hope you win the jackpot tonight MsBee18

Reply #32

MsBee18 — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 02:51:48 GMT

I purchased 5 lines with megaplier for $15.00. I usually buy one line with the extra . Self picked 1 and 25 as a mb number. Qp the rest.

Reply #31

Stack47 — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 01:00:30 GMT

The $3 ticket should be a no brainer because you can win twice as much by betting just 50% more, but when it comes down to getting either 2 or 3 chances at the jackpot for $6, most players will choose the latter.

And speaking of multipliers, the KY Lottery believes 1 is a multiplier on their Keno game. They think players want to bet $2 for a chance to get paid the same as betting $1.

Reply #30

ressuccess — Wed, 17 Oct 2018 00:22:58 GMT

This is my side bet Mega Millions picks for tonight DALVIN PAYNE Timewalkerv Bringa wander73 Bodia77 Marcie Redd55 CDanaT and music*! They are:

A. 12-21-30-37-51 Mega 7 B. 19-27-29-62-66 Mega 10 C. 1-3-39-43-44 Mega 9 D. 24-56-57-63-65 Mega 16 E. 8-10-16-20-52 Mega 25

F. 8-10-37-61-65 Mega 4 G. 2-5-8-20-64 Mega 5 H. 35-47-50-52-55 Mega 18 I. 4-19-23-51-65 Mega 1 J. 10-17-25-34-54 Mega 21

Also Mega Millions is now in Sudden Death Level 2 as Hurricane Hung as sustained wins of 100 miles a... [ More ]

Reply #29

CDanaT — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 18:02:46 GMT

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

Sorry.....Spoke too soon... revised update with new jackpot and estimated should it roll over

Reply #28

CDanaT — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 13:31:45 GMT

I could work with a rollover... I just checked the TX lottery Estimated Jackpot Calculations. Not sure when they post the new potential jackpot figures but always a good source of information.

https://www.txlottery.org/export/sites/lottery/Games/Mega_Millions/Estimated_Jackpot.html

Reply #27

KY Floyd — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 05:19:34 GMT

Since the jackpot wasn't bumped up today I can't imagine the final amount will be more than a very modest increase over the 654 they advertised from the beginning. Considering that the current record for a MM jackpot is only $2 million more than that I'm amazed they didn't advertise this one at 657 just so they could claim a new jackpot record.

Assuming we do see a modest bump at the end there will be about 80 million tickets sold. If all tickets had random combinations there would be about 7... [ More ]

Reply #26

lowellm — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 01:47:13 GMT

You're surely welcome, CDanaT! ;) For the sake of full disclosure I must say that I rarely have to purchase a ticket with a jackpot below $100M, since I go with the richer of the 2 bigguns', if I may... I go with the richer jackpot, although I prefer the MM because the 2nd prize is multiplied up to 5x, as opposed to the PB which is governed down to 2x regardless of the multiplier. But, then again, my partiality probably stems back to when MM + multiplier was $2, while at the same time PB + multi... [ More ]

Reply #25

CDanaT — Tue, 16 Oct 2018 01:18:53 GMT

lowell.... with the massive jackpot odds on both big lottery games and the recent changes to increase those odds, they altered my support level to participate. Also, looking at recent winners' jackpot sizes over $100 Million has been very consistent over the last 2 years. The one exception is for the PB back in March of 2018 for $55.9 Million. The MM had 2 separate jackpots that were won under $100 Million,the first was a year ago Oct 13,2017 for $42 Million and the 2nd was in April of 2017 for... [ More ]

Reply #24

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 23:06:18 GMT

I'm one of those guys who always buys a ticket (with the multiplier) regardless of the jackpot amount. If (When) I win big, I'll still keep playing. lol... But, like you said, the odds are really in favor of the fair weather players, simply because they come out en masse. I hold no ill will towards them, not anymore than when it always seems like the majority of the jackpot winners come from Newark NJ, or Chicago (or some other megalopolis), but the fact is that the majority of ticket sales occu... [ More ]

Reply #23

Stack47 — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:57:50 GMT

Most lotteries have lotto games with chances to win more than $1 million with only slightly larger odds with a $1 a ticket price. The cash option of Ohio's Classic 6/47 Lotto is $2.6 million.

Reply #22

Stack47 — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 21:44:02 GMT

However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play.

The last two drawings shows it may have reached the not worth it to play when you compare the number of 5 + 0 wins to the number of tickets sold. With 57 million tickets sold there should be five winners, but there was only one. Lots of the weekly MM and PB players use the second prize to justify spending $2 bucks so when that gets too difficult, something has to give.

Another problem is with the every... [ More ]

Reply #21

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 20:30:45 GMT

It would be nice if they could figure out a way to build massive jackpots, but make the odds of winning the lower tier prizes better. I rarely even get the lowest prize, but it sure makes me happy when I do! lol

Reply #20

zephbe — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 20:12:40 GMT

especially with so few 2nd tier winners. no jackpot, a few $1 million winners--not really worth playing now.

Reply #19

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 14:54:27 GMT

I tell ya what: She had my attention at $40M ($13.2M take-home in my state.

Reply #18

CDanaT — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 14:42:18 GMT

It has got some attention in the media...Have seen it on Fox, MSN, Yahoo and a few other locations but it is a bit strange that at this dollar amount that there hasn't been more coverage. Maybe a new interview with an old winner(s)?...As far as upward $$ from this estimated JP ? I don't think so but I have been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future... It might happen....The $372.6 Million CASH. Sorry about that, what I meant to say is the $234.7 Million take home after Fed Taxes( Sta... [ More ]

Reply #17

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 14:10:21 GMT

I'm thinking it'll roll Tuesday, there still doesn't seem to be enough interest in it, yet. Who knows, maybe she'll start to swell before tomorrow night

Reply #16

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 14:03:54 GMT

True... They've got to get people to buy tickets when the jackpots are small before they can grow into a beast like this one (these two, really.) The last I checked the entire population of the US is around 300M, so the odds are like picking one American out all Americans. It would be extremely lucky to be chosen, even out of a room with only 30 people, let alone out of an entire city or country! But my philosophy is: consistently buy one ticket for every drawing (whichever is richer), maybe lig... [ More ]

Reply #15

wander73 — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 14:03:41 GMT

I still think this week a mm ticket will happen. Perhaps Fri nite. I am going to do my pyramids to see what numbers I find. This should be interesting.

Reply #14

CDanaT — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 13:47:01 GMT

only if the jackpots got up this this high and higher.... 1 in 302.5 Million is bad enough. I have no idea what adding a 5 more MB's would create for an odds package

Reply #13

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 13:10:21 GMT

Indeed! I guess it's a fine line for them to tread: the longer the odds = larger jackpots = massive ticket sales... However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play.

Reply #12

CDanaT — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 12:51:29 GMT

or added 5 more Mega balls

Reply #11

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 12:19:37 GMT

Thanks, Stack47, I'll try that. It's hard to believe that so many possible outcomes can come from just 6 numbers. Imagine how difficult it would be to win it if they were to add a 7th number, lol.

Reply #10

Stack47 — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 04:09:34 GMT

Considering jackpots start at $40 million, you're 100% correct.

Reply #9

Stack47 — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 04:06:51 GMT

Do a search of mega million ticket sales by state and you should find the overall ticket sales too. Because you can count on your hand the number of times tickets sales matched or were more than the number of possible outcomes, at best we can say the more tickets sold, the more likelyhood of a winner . If history proves anything, ticket sales gradualy increase up to the $400 million level and then increase by about 50% or more.

All that being said, mathematically when ticket sales match 50% o... [ More ]

Reply #8

lowellm — Mon, 15 Oct 2018 00:01:42 GMT

I hear ya, Big Joey, normally I would expect a buying frenzy when the MM is this high, but the Powerball has been stealing some of the thunder from MM ticket sales. I agree with you about the player pools, and if the jackpot starts to swell before Tuesday then she might pick a winner. If she doesn't swell, I'll bet she'll roll over to an $850M jackpot for next Friday.

Reply #7

Big Joey — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 23:46:23 GMT

It could roll again to Friday's drawing. I would think it depends on player pools buying large amounts of tickets. IRS form 5754.

Reply #6

lowellm — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 23:10:51 GMT

I hear ya, ressuccess! I think she might have one more roll left in her, anyway. Good Luck

Reply #5

ressuccess — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 23:01:33 GMT

I think it's going to roll until someone will hit a jackpot of over $1.6 million dollars lowellm

Reply #4

lowellm — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 22:33:46 GMT

That's true, but somewhere there are statistics that calculate the probability of a set of numbers being drawn based upon projected sales. That factors in duplicate numbers, and people picking their birthdays or whatever... For example, for the sake of argument let's say there are 63M tickets sold for this drawing. The overall odds being 302M to one, 63M unique sets of numbers would imply that there is about a 20% chance that one of those 63M sets of numbers will be drawn. However, if 63M ticket... [ More ]

Reply #3

MsBee18 — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 21:51:17 GMT

Doesn't matter how many tickets are sold. Most are QP's with probably a few duplicates. It all boils down to one (5 + 1) set of numbers. One ticket sold could be a match.

Reply #2

lowellm — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 19:36:00 GMT

Ok, thankya! There is a lot of good info on that site, but I haven't quite found what I'm looking for, yet.

Reply #1

CDanaT — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 19:28:07 GMT

Probably on the USAMEGA site. Not exactly sure where

Likelihood of a MM Winner this drawing?

lowellm — Sun, 14 Oct 2018 19:16:43 GMT

The cash in the pot for Friday's drawing was around $309M, if my memory serves, and the cash in the pot for next Tuesday's drawing currently is $372M. A difference of $63M cash... I've read posts that quoted the statistical odds of a winner being drawn based on the estimated ticket sales. Where can I find these statistics