Philadelphia, PA United States
Member #153,767
March 24, 2014
8,748 Posts
Offline
I still think this week a mm ticket will happen. Perhaps Fri nite. I am going to do my pyramids to see what numbers I find. This should be interesting.
Seeking content generation for various needs including blogs, reselling, and beyond.
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Oct 15, 2018
only if the jackpots got up this this high and higher.... 1 in 302.5 Million is bad enough. I have no idea what adding a 5 more MB's would create for an odds package
True... They've got to get people to buy tickets when the jackpots are small before they can grow into a beast like this one (these two, really.) The last I checked the entire population of the US is around 300M, so the odds are like picking one American out all Americans. It would be extremely lucky to be chosen, even out of a room with only 30 people, let alone out of an entire city or country! But my philosophy is: consistently buy one ticket for every drawing (whichever is richer), maybe lightning will strike!
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by wander73 on Oct 15, 2018
I still think this week a mm ticket will happen. Perhaps Fri nite. I am going to do my pyramids to see what numbers I find. This should be interesting.
I'm thinking it'll roll Tuesday, there still doesn't seem to be enough interest in it, yet. Who knows, maybe she'll start to swell before tomorrow night?
Central TN United States
Member #121,187
January 4, 2012
7,812 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by lowellm on Oct 15, 2018
I'm thinking it'll roll Tuesday, there still doesn't seem to be enough interest in it, yet. Who knows, maybe she'll start to swell before tomorrow night?
It has got some attention in the media...Have seen it on Fox, MSN, Yahoo and a few other locations but it is a bit strange that at this dollar amount that there hasn't been more coverage. Maybe a new interview with an old winner(s)?...As far as upward $$ from this estimated JP ? I don't think so but I have been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future... It might happen....The $372.6 Million CASH. Sorry about that, what I meant to say is the $234.7 Million take home after Fed Taxes( State/City taxes not incl.) will give folks that don't play regularly, some pause to think about purchasing an extra chance. Time will tell. The fever (IMHO) would start on Wed. should there be a rollover.
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Oct 15, 2018
It has got some attention in the media...Have seen it on Fox, MSN, Yahoo and a few other locations but it is a bit strange that at this dollar amount that there hasn't been more coverage. Maybe a new interview with an old winner(s)?...As far as upward $$ from this estimated JP ? I don't think so but I have been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future... It might happen....The $372.6 Million CASH. Sorry about that, what I meant to say is the $234.7 Million take home after Fed Taxes( State/City taxes not incl.) will give folks that don't play regularly, some pause to think about purchasing an extra chance. Time will tell. The fever (IMHO) would start on Wed. should there be a rollover.
I tell ya what: She had my attention at $40M ($13.2M take-home in my state.) ;)
South Carolina United States
Member #77,165
July 15, 2009
952 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by lowellm on Oct 15, 2018
Indeed! I guess it's a fine line for them to tread: the longer the odds = larger jackpots = massive ticket sales... However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play.
especially with so few 2nd tier winners. no jackpot, a few $1 million winners--not really worth playing now.
Every champion was once a contender who refused to give up.-Rocky Balboa
“Don’t let someone who gave up on their dreams talk you out of going after yours.” – Zig Ziglar
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by zephbe on Oct 15, 2018
especially with so few 2nd tier winners. no jackpot, a few $1 million winners--not really worth playing now.
It would be nice if they could figure out a way to build massive jackpots, but make the odds of winning the lower tier prizes better. I rarely even get the lowest prize, but it sure makes me happy when I do! lol
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,314 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by lowellm on Oct 15, 2018
Indeed! I guess it's a fine line for them to tread: the longer the odds = larger jackpots = massive ticket sales... However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play.
"However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play."
The last two drawings shows it may have reached the "not worth it to play" when you compare the number of 5 + 0 wins to the number of tickets sold. With 57 million tickets sold there should be five winners, but there was only one. Lots of the weekly MM and PB players use the second prize to justify spending $2 bucks so when that gets too difficult, something has to give.
Another problem is with the every drawing players that faithfully buy their tickets four times a week and actually grow a jackpot that will probably won by the players waiting for the jackpot to reach a certain height. In this run the first seven drawings averaged slightly over 10 million tickets sold when the advertised jackpot under $100 million. The sales averaged about 3 million more until $200 million jackpot and from there ticket sales increased on average 1 million more each week. At the $400 million mark, sales increased by 6 and 7 million more ticket and then up 21 million for the last drawing. It's obvious when ticket sales increase from 10 million to 58 million it's not the every drawing players buying five times more tickets. The jackpot chasing players have a five times better chance of winning the jackpot.
Somebody is going to mention the "70% to 80% of ticket sales" are QPs guess that if even close to being true means QPs failed to win a jackpot in the last 19 drawings. And it's getting more difficult for the "jackpot chasers" to determine when the jackpot is more likely to be won. Ticket sales must triple from the last drawing just to have about a 50% chance of a winning ticket.
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,314 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by zephbe on Oct 15, 2018
especially with so few 2nd tier winners. no jackpot, a few $1 million winners--not really worth playing now.
Most lotteries have lotto games with chances to win more than $1 million with only slightly larger odds with a $1 a ticket price. The cash option of Ohio's Classic 6/47 Lotto is $2.6 million.
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by Stack47 on Oct 15, 2018
"However, at some point it's so difficult to win that it wouldn't be worth it to play."
The last two drawings shows it may have reached the "not worth it to play" when you compare the number of 5 + 0 wins to the number of tickets sold. With 57 million tickets sold there should be five winners, but there was only one. Lots of the weekly MM and PB players use the second prize to justify spending $2 bucks so when that gets too difficult, something has to give.
Another problem is with the every drawing players that faithfully buy their tickets four times a week and actually grow a jackpot that will probably won by the players waiting for the jackpot to reach a certain height. In this run the first seven drawings averaged slightly over 10 million tickets sold when the advertised jackpot under $100 million. The sales averaged about 3 million more until $200 million jackpot and from there ticket sales increased on average 1 million more each week. At the $400 million mark, sales increased by 6 and 7 million more ticket and then up 21 million for the last drawing. It's obvious when ticket sales increase from 10 million to 58 million it's not the every drawing players buying five times more tickets. The jackpot chasing players have a five times better chance of winning the jackpot.
Somebody is going to mention the "70% to 80% of ticket sales" are QPs guess that if even close to being true means QPs failed to win a jackpot in the last 19 drawings. And it's getting more difficult for the "jackpot chasers" to determine when the jackpot is more likely to be won. Ticket sales must triple from the last drawing just to have about a 50% chance of a winning ticket.
I'm one of those guys who always buys a ticket (with the multiplier) regardless of the jackpot amount. If (When) I win big, I'll still keep playing. lol... But, like you said, the odds are really in favor of the "fair weather" players, simply because they come out en masse. I hold no ill will towards them, not anymore than when it always seems like the majority of the jackpot winners come from Newark NJ, or Chicago (or some other megalopolis), but the fact is that the majority of ticket sales occur around these areas once the frenzy begins...
Having said that... I buy a $3 ticket twice per week, whichever jackpot is richer, and I very rarely win anything. That's fine & all, the dream is worth it, but it would be so much nicer if I'd win something every couple weeks instead of once every couple months. But, as I said before, I'd still play if (when) I win big, and I'll still play even if I never win at all. ;)
Central TN United States
Member #121,187
January 4, 2012
7,812 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by lowellm on Oct 15, 2018
I'm one of those guys who always buys a ticket (with the multiplier) regardless of the jackpot amount. If (When) I win big, I'll still keep playing. lol... But, like you said, the odds are really in favor of the "fair weather" players, simply because they come out en masse. I hold no ill will towards them, not anymore than when it always seems like the majority of the jackpot winners come from Newark NJ, or Chicago (or some other megalopolis), but the fact is that the majority of ticket sales occur around these areas once the frenzy begins...
Having said that... I buy a $3 ticket twice per week, whichever jackpot is richer, and I very rarely win anything. That's fine & all, the dream is worth it, but it would be so much nicer if I'd win something every couple weeks instead of once every couple months. But, as I said before, I'd still play if (when) I win big, and I'll still play even if I never win at all. ;)
lowell.... with the massive jackpot odds on both big lottery games and the recent changes to increase those odds, they altered my support level to participate. Also, looking at recent winners' jackpot sizes over $100 Million has been very consistent over the last 2 years. The one exception is for the PB back in March of 2018 for $55.9 Million. The MM had 2 separate jackpots that were won under $100 Million,the first was a year ago Oct 13,2017 for $42 Million and the 2nd was in April of 2017 for $61 Million.
Mt Sterling, IL United States
Member #192,745
October 8, 2018
199 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by CDanaT on Oct 15, 2018
lowell.... with the massive jackpot odds on both big lottery games and the recent changes to increase those odds, they altered my support level to participate. Also, looking at recent winners' jackpot sizes over $100 Million has been very consistent over the last 2 years. The one exception is for the PB back in March of 2018 for $55.9 Million. The MM had 2 separate jackpots that were won under $100 Million,the first was a year ago Oct 13,2017 for $42 Million and the 2nd was in April of 2017 for $61 Million.
So thanks for the increases from the beginning
You're surely welcome, CDanaT! ;) For the sake of full disclosure I must say that I rarely have to purchase a ticket with a jackpot below $100M, since I go with the richer of the 2 bigguns', if I may... I go with the richer jackpot, although I prefer the MM because the 2nd prize is multiplied up to 5x, as opposed to the PB which is governed down to 2x regardless of the multiplier. But, then again, my partiality probably stems back to when MM + multiplier was $2, while at the same time PB + multiplier was $3, but I digress... It's a bummer when the MM is richer, so I start buying into it; meanwhile the PB (due to her brand recognition) catches up to and surpasses the MM, in which case I must play both "bigguns'" to the end. Skin in the game & all that...
NY United States
Member #23,834
October 16, 2005
4,785 Posts
Offline
Since the jackpot wasn't bumped up today I can't imagine the final amount will be more than a very modest increase over the 654 they advertised from the beginning. Considering that the current record for a MM jackpot is only $2 million more than that I'm amazed they didn't advertise this one at 657 just so they could claim a new jackpot record.
Assuming we do see a modest bump at the end there will be about 80 million tickets sold. If all tickets had random combinations there would be about 70 million of the 302 million possible combinations would be in play. That means a 23% chance of a winner, and a 77% chance of another rollover. As we know, people who choose their own numbers increase the number of repeated combinations by playing birthday numbers, patterns, and numbers that are consecutive or multiples. The actual chance of a winner is a bit lower, but probably not by very much.
Central TN United States
Member #121,187
January 4, 2012
7,812 Posts
Offline
I could work with a rollover... I just checked the TX lottery Estimated Jackpot Calculations. Not sure when they post the new potential jackpot figures but always a good source of information.