PREDICTIONS: Need your feedback

Reply #50

RJOh — Sun, 30 May 2004 07:04:48 GMT

Once the rules for crediting a win or loss are formulated, posting a summary of them would be helpful to everyones understanding of how the system works. I'm sure there are going to be some general rules that will apply to all similar type lotteries for convenience and that would be nice to know.RJOh

Reply #49

desparado — Fri, 28 May 2004 00:46:10 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on May 27, 2004RJOh,I understand your point as well, but I wouldn't dismiss what Bob is saying quite so quickly. There are some very expensive wheels out there - and some people are willing to invest more than others.However, I would generally agree with your statement that most people wouldn't post that many picks, which is why the limit - even for a Platinum member - is 50 picks.I vote for 50 picks on the poll I just started.Its the balance between winning jac... [ More ]

Reply #48

desparado — Fri, 28 May 2004 00:36:12 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by Todd on May 27, 2004If there is a demand for more picks then I can change it. Who wants to start a poll?I will

Reply #47

RJOh — Thu, 27 May 2004 20:19:28 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on May 27, 2004You really surprise me RJOh: The best way to have the winning numbers among the numbers you are playing is to play them all. With 100 lines in a Pick-6/49 game playing all the numbers I can get about 95% coverage of a 3if6 guarantee and that's before arranging the numbers within the combinations to eliminate unlikely draws. With 163 lines I can 100% guarantee at least a 3# prize every time. Ken Silver's system takes 120 lines according to the a... [ More ]

Reply #46

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 18:05:40 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by solemntruth on May 27, 2004I have a suggestion. Talk to your computer programmer friends. Ask them to design you a mathematical algorithym similar to chess software or whatever. This will eliminate any guessing at a solution. For some, who may not be familiar with the term algorithm, the Cambridge Dictionary defines it as:a set of mathematical instructions that must be followed in a fixed order, and that, especially if given to a computer, will help to calculate an an... [ More ]

Reply #45

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 18:04:47 GMT

If there is a demand for more picks then I can change it. Who wants to start a poll

Reply #44

solemntruth — Thu, 27 May 2004 18:04:32 GMT

I have a suggestion. Talk to your computer programmer friends. Ask them to design you a mathematical algorithym similar to chess software or whatever. This will eliminate any guessing at a solution. For some, who may not be familiar with the term algorithm, the Cambridge Dictionary defines it as:a set of mathematical instructions that must be followed in a fixed order, and that, especially if given to a computer, will help to calculate an answer to a mathematical problem.

Reply #43

Lucky — Thu, 27 May 2004 17:58:36 GMT

BobP - I agree with you... I also have a 100 number wheel that I play when ever I get a nice hit off the 3 digit game... on numerous occasions, with luck I have hit 4 out of 6 and one 4 out of 6 plus the bonus ball - if it is at all possible I would love to see 100 lines...Lucky

Reply #42

BobP — Thu, 27 May 2004 17:50:16 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 27, 2004Quote: Originally posted by BobP on May 27, 2004Only problem I have is the number of prediction lines allowed. For playing Pick-5 and Pick-6, you often need more then 50 lines. I realize size might be a problem if unlimited, perhaps 100 lines as the max, though 200 would be closer to allowing people to apply some of the available systems. BobPBob,I have been reading the Pick 5 and Jackpot forums since they started and I've only seen a few poster... [ More ]

Reply #41

Jani Norman — Thu, 27 May 2004 17:41:33 GMT

I guess I'd better go out and

Reply #40

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 17:32:52 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #39

konane — Thu, 27 May 2004 17:24:51 GMT

Tod

Reply #38

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 16:47:05 GMT

konane,Thanks for your comments, and I appreciate you setting the record straight on past dvents. I think once the Gold and Platinum memberships come online members will be able to post all their predictions on the Predictions page. For example, I know Lucky is a little cramped, because his system uses twelve numbers, and standard membership only offers room for ten picks. In this example, a Gold or Platinum membership will allow Lucky to post all predictions on the Predictions page - and all... [ More ]

Reply #37

konane — Thu, 27 May 2004 16:34:32 GMT

Tod

Reply #36

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 16:16:35 GMT

RJOh,I understand your point as well, but I wouldn't dismiss what Bob is saying quite so quickly. There are some very expensive wheels out there - and some people are willing to invest more than others.However, I would generally agree with your statement that most people wouldn't post that many picks, which is why the limit - even for a Platinum member - is 50 picks.

Reply #35

RJOh — Thu, 27 May 2004 15:51:55 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by BobP on May 27, 2004Only problem I have is the number of prediction lines allowed. For playing Pick-5 and Pick-6, you often need more then 50 lines. I realize size might be a problem if unlimited, perhaps 100 lines as the max, though 200 would be closer to allowing people to apply some of the available systems. BobPBob,I have been reading the Pick 5 and Jackpot forums since they started and I've only seen a few posters post that many numbers and they weren't a syst... [ More ]

Reply #34

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 11:24:29 GMT

Bob,I understand. The problem I think we'll have if we allow that many predictions is that first it will take an enormous amount of space on the screen, and secondly, I think it will make a lot of people upset. I'm trying to strike a balance between flexibility for the predictor and friendliness for all the members.If you can start a poll on this, and if there is a good deal of support for expanding the upper limit, I will do it. Otherwise I'll keep it as it is.

Reply #33

BobP — Thu, 27 May 2004 05:13:21 GMT

Only problem I have is the number of prediction lines allowed. For playing Pick-5 and Pick-6, you often need more then 50 lines. I realize size might be a problem if unlimited, perhaps 100 lines as the max, though 200 would be closer to allowing people to apply some of the available systems. BobP

Reply #32

desparado — Thu, 27 May 2004 03:59:58 GMT

I was refering to the format of the red-colored one compared to the blue ones.

Reply #31

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 02:58:38 GMT

I can expand to 10 past draws, but the color coding is too specific, and is not consistent with the rest of the results. I do give you the option of selecting just midday or just evening if you want to separate them.

Reply #30

desparado — Thu, 27 May 2004 02:29:29 GMT

Illinois D

Reply #29

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 00:39:19 GMT

I asked for some feedback on how we were going to credit wins on the predictions page. I have no problem with you asking about the existence of the page at all. Am I not allowed to voice my opinion like you can? Jeez, it seems every time I voice an opinion I get jumped all over. I am spending countless hours on programming all this stuff, so I think I'm entitled to say a thing or two. It's not like I ever stop anyone from saying whatever they want.I guess the answer is NO, I did not do a po... [ More ]

Reply #28

NBey6 — Thu, 27 May 2004 00:32:28 GMT

Quote: O

Reply #27

Todd — Thu, 27 May 2004 00:25:41 GMT

NEB,I do not understand your observation. If you (or anyone else) doesn't want to use the Predictions page, then don't. There is no coercion to use it.However, I think you'll be missing out on some nice features if you don't.I think if you prefer to leaf through multiple topic threads to weed out picks for your state, as opposed to going to one single page for them all together, then you'd be in the minority. Again, there is no force to do it either way, but I think it's clear which method mo... [ More ]

Reply #26

NBey6 — Thu, 27 May 2004 00:03:50 GMT

Have you polled to see how many people actually use the predictions page, because I have seen some people post that they don't even look at that page? Are you attempting to get people to go there as opposed to looking through the forum for picks to play? Is there any reason why you are going back before the day this feature was completely operational? That basically means that the people who posted predictions on the predictions page prior will not be on an even playing field with the people wh... [ More ]

Reply #25

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 23:47:59 GMT

It Worked!The Wisconsin Pick 3 results were 863, and my program code correctly identified that Lucky had a 6-way box with 386 ($40) and ms5pennie had a straight + 6-way box with 863 ($290).We're getting closer! I'm now busy writing the program code to determine winners for the other games as well (all the non-standard games).

Reply #24

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 22:14:27 GMT

John,Absolutely. If you post 123 five times for one draw/game and 123 hits, you will get credit for five separate 123 picks. If you choose to lay it all out on one number, your risk will be rewarded

Reply #23

JAP69 — Wed, 26 May 2004 22:10:11 GMT

Todd,I have this question about the results data. I see that their has been statements about the hit percentile and how a player may be ahead or below on their winnings.we are currently limited to ten picks. If I post ten separate picks I may win or loose on that day. You may have seen my worksheet I post and their are certain numbers in there that may prove to be a good winner. If I post say 5 or 10 straight positions for one pick will I be credited for the 5 or 10 straight hits on that day if

Reply #22

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 22:01:31 GMT

The first test didn't tell me too much. No one predicted correctly in California Midday, so I have to wait until the next games occur. I'll give another update later.As for Gold and Platinum memberships, I can't yet give a date, but it's within weeks. I've finished about 70%-80% of the code required.

Reply #21

Lucky — Wed, 26 May 2004 21:20:43 GMT

Sounds great Todd - How did the first test fair? also , when do you think you will start the Gold and Platinum memberships

Reply #20

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 19:12:28 GMT

Well, I have completed my first draft of the code, and it is now in test! As of right now, when new results come in for the games, all predictions for those games are immediately checked for winners.(The next games to be checked will be California Midday 3 and Oregon 1pm results.)There's no way for the membership to see the checked results yet, because I have yet to create the pages to see them. But I'll be looking to make sure everything is testing OK.A bonus will be that I will process ALL... [ More ]

Reply #19

RJOh — Wed, 26 May 2004 18:08:06 GMT

I like that idea of showing multiple statistics for each member. I have alway believed that a player would show a negative gain until he/she won a top prize, but some players claim that is not true. It will be interesting to see if any players ever cover their cost to play without winning a top prize.RJOh

Reply #18

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 16:58:23 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 26, 2004Todd,How long will these negative numbers be shown. Personally, I track my own win loss/win every year and even in the year that I matched 5of6 for $1,500, I ended the year with -$1,200 and I don't play everyday. I prefer to start each new year with a new calender with a new balance of $0, it's more entertaining that way.RJOhThat's a good point, and I'm open to suggestions. Personally, I think the way to go is to show multiple statistics for eac... [ More ]

Reply #17

RJOh — Wed, 26 May 2004 16:43:00 GMT

Todd,How long will these negative numbers be shown. Personally, I track my own win loss/win every year and even in the year that I matched 5of6 for $1,500, I ended the year with -$1,200 and I don't play everyday. I prefer to start each new year with a new calender with a new balance of $0, it's more entertaining that way.RJOh

Reply #16

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 11:46:04 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by desparado on May 26, 2004What if someone's prediction makes him(her) lose more money than earned,will it be shown somewhere?Yes, negative numbers will certainly be shown.

Reply #15

desparado — Wed, 26 May 2004 11:11:39 GMT

What if someone's prediction makes him(her) lose more money than earned,will it be shown somewhere

Reply #14

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 04:13:54 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by whodeani on May 25, 2004Looks good to me except how do you discern between someone who would hit 6/6 on a 6/49 Pick 6 and a 6/6 on a 6/36 Pick 6???? Shouldn't someone who hits a 6/49 be worth more than someone who hits a 6/36. Other than that everything looks good to me.If someone hits a 6 of 6, I could easily manually enter the exact amount. I would think it would be very rare, so I'm not too worried about it.

Reply #13

whodeani — Wed, 26 May 2004 03:36:58 GMT

Looks good to me except how do you discern between someone who would hit 6/6 on a 6/49 Pick 6 and a 6/6 on a 6/36 Pick 6???? Shouldn't someone who hits a 6/49 be worth more than someone who hits a 6/36. Other than that everything looks good to me.

Reply #12

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 02:57:34 GMT

For triples (Pick 3) and quads (Pick 4): my thoughts are to pay double the straight payout, because that would be in keeping with the standard straight and box wager for each pick. (It would be two straight bets in this case.)What do you think

Reply #11

Todd — Wed, 26 May 2004 01:39:13 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by desparado on May 25, 2004how many draws could we post per game at most?Click on Predictions in the blue bar above and your question is answered fully there.

Reply #10

mach1 — Wed, 26 May 2004 01:28:24 GMT

This looks good to me can`t wait to see the results. jeff

Reply #9

desparado — Wed, 26 May 2004 01:23:36 GMT

how many draws could we post per game at most

Reply #8

Todd — Tue, 25 May 2004 23:43:04 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by johnph77 on May 25, 2004Comments, not criticism, not in any way, shape and/or form. All Pick 5 and Pick 6 games and limits cited are only those not using bonus or power balls.Pick 3, Pick 4 - suggested payouts in line with standard payout percentages at or near 50%.Pick 5 - Smallest game currently being played is 5/31 - MN Northstar Cash, NM Roadrunner 5, WI Badger 5, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 60.03%. Largest is 5/52 - WA Quinto, suggested payouts y... [ More ]

Reply #7

Todd — Tue, 25 May 2004 23:40:18 GMT

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 25, 2004Looks good,give everyones winnings the same value,however, everyone like to talk about their winnings but not about the amount spent to get those winnings. Would that investment figure also show the amounts invested for the same game when nothing was won?RJOhYes.

Reply #6

johnph77 — Tue, 25 May 2004 23:15:29 GMT

Comments, not criticism, not in any way, shape and/or form. All Pick 5 and Pick 6 games and limits cited are only those not using bonus or power balls.Pick 3, Pick 4 - suggested payouts in line with standard payout percentages at or near 50%.Pick 5 - Smallest game currently being played is 5/31 - MN Northstar Cash, NM Roadrunner 5, WI Badger 5, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 60.03%. Largest is 5/52 - WA Quinto, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 7.44%. This excludes NV Nu... [ More ]

Reply #5

RJOh — Tue, 25 May 2004 23:13:38 GMT

Looks good,give everyones winnings the same value,however, everyone like to talk about their winnings but not about the amount spent to get those winnings. Would that investment figure also show the amounts invested for the same game when nothing was won?RJOh

Reply #4

Todd — Tue, 25 May 2004 22:58:04 GMT

CalifDude,I don't see any problem at all. A 1 in 10 ratio is clearly better than 1 in 60. And it will clearly show that. (Also, $10 investment vs. $60 investment. Both make a profit, but the first one makes more money.

Reply #3

CalifDude — Tue, 25 May 2004 22:35:53 GMT

Todd,I don't see a problem with what you have shown, but I think your real challenge will be how to (if you are going to do this) determine who is the best predictor. If I predict 10 pick 3 numbers and hit, do I get more credit than someone that picks 60 numbers and hits? This is the real problem with determining winners.

Reply #2

CASH Only — Tue, 25 May 2004 22:05:32 GMT

If only NY Lotto 6/59 had such lower-tier prizes

Reply #1

JAP69 — Tue, 25 May 2004 21:51:14 GMT

Todd,They all look good to me. With pari-mutel payouts in some states and jackpot prizes at different levels all the time your choice of one set prize level was a good one.You have done a fine job with your site over the years to bring it to where it is today.Thanks

PREDICTIONS: Need your feedback

Todd — Tue, 25 May 2004 21:19:18 GMT

I am currently writing the program code for determining winning predictions, based on the actual draw results.In doing so, I need to come up with a standard set of rules for how a win is determined, and how much it will pay.Please take a look at the rules for each game type below and (1) indicate that it looks good, or, (2) make suggestions for changing them.I'm sure everyone has their own opinion, so please keep in mind that I may not be able to use your suggestion. But I will definitely con... [ More ]