Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 11:02 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

PREDICTIONS: Need your feedback

Topic closed. 50 replies. Last post 13 years ago by RJOh.

Page 1 of 4
PrintE-mailLink
Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
Chief Bottle Washer
New Jersey
United States
Member #1
May 31, 2000
23277 Posts
Online
Posted: May 25, 2004, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

I am currently writing the program code for determining winning predictions, based on the actual draw results.

In doing so, I need to come up with a standard set of "rules" for how a win is determined, and how much it will pay.

Please take a look at the rules for each game type below and (1) indicate that it looks good, or, (2) make suggestions for changing them.

I'm sure everyone has their own opinion, so please keep in mind that I may not be able to use your suggestion.  But I will definitely consider each suggestion.

Also, I am going to use one standard rule for every game, so please do not suggest multiple ways to calculate a win or credit a prize.  The idea is to create a level playing field across all games so that member stats can be fairly compared.

Every time I mention "bet", "win", "prize", "pay", and other such terms below, I am (of course) referring to a simulated bet/payout, not real money.

Thanks!







Pick 3


  • Only straight and box hits will count (no pairs).  I don't think a lot of people play pairs, and they are a very "soft" way to win.

  • All predictions are played .50 straight + .50 box ($1 total bet)

  • Straight hits will pay $250 + matching box payout.

  • 3-way box hits will pay $80.

  • 6-way box hits will pay $40.

Pick 4


  • All predictions are played .50 straight + .50 box ($1 total bet)

  • Straight hits will pay $2500 + matching box payout.

  • 4-way box hits will pay $600.

  • 6-way box hits will pay $400.

  • 12-way box hits will pay $200.

  • 24-way box hits will pay $100.

Pick 5


  • 5 of 5 will pay $50,000.

  • 4 of 5 will pay $150.

  • 3 of 5 will pay $10.

Pick 6


  • 6 of 6 will pay $5 million.

  • 5 of 6 will pay $5,000.

  • 4 of 6 will pay $100.

  • 3 of 6 will pay $5.

Mega Millions and Powerball


  • Jackpot Win: $50 million.

  • All other prize tiers will be exactly like the real game.

 

Check the State Lottery Report Card
What grade did your lottery earn?

 

Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
Help eliminate computerized drawings!

    JAP69's avatar - alas
    South Carolina
    United States
    Member #6
    November 4, 2001
    8790 Posts
    Online
    Posted: May 25, 2004, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

    Todd,
    They all look good to me.
    With pari-mutel payouts in some states and jackpot prizes at different levels all the time your choice of one set prize level was a good one.
    You have done a fine job with your site over the years to bring it to where it is today.

    Thanks

    MAGA


      United States
      Member #379
      June 5, 2002
      11296 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: May 25, 2004, 6:05 pm - IP Logged

      If only NY Lotto 6/59 had such lower-tier prizes!

        Avatar
        Poway CA (San Diego County)
        United States
        Member #3489
        January 25, 2004
        14120 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: May 25, 2004, 6:35 pm - IP Logged

        Todd,

        I don't see a problem with what you have shown, but I think your real challenge will be how to (if you are going to do this) determine who is the best predictor.  If I predict 10 pick 3 numbers and hit, do I get more credit than someone that picks 60 numbers and hits? 

        This is the real problem with determining winners. 

          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
          Chief Bottle Washer
          New Jersey
          United States
          Member #1
          May 31, 2000
          23277 Posts
          Online
          Posted: May 25, 2004, 6:58 pm - IP Logged

          CalifDude,

          I don't see any problem at all.  A 1 in 10 ratio is clearly better than 1 in 60.  And it will clearly show that.  (Also, $10 investment vs. $60 investment.  Both make a profit, but the first one makes more money.)

           

          Check the State Lottery Report Card
          What grade did your lottery earn?

           

          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19831 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: May 25, 2004, 7:13 pm - IP Logged

            Looks good,give everyones winnings the same value,however, everyone like to talk about their winnings but not about the amount spent to get those winnings.  Would that investment figure also show the amounts invested for the same game when nothing was won?

            RJOh

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              johnph77's avatar - avatar
              CA
              United States
              Member #2987
              December 10, 2003
              832 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: May 25, 2004, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

              Comments, not criticism, not in any way, shape and/or form. All Pick 5 and Pick 6 games and limits cited are only those not using bonus or power balls.

              Pick 3, Pick 4 - suggested payouts in line with standard payout percentages at or near 50%.

              Pick 5 - Smallest game currently being played is 5/31 - MN Northstar Cash, NM Roadrunner 5, WI Badger 5, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 60.03%. Largest is 5/52 - WA Quinto, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 7.44%. This excludes NV Numbers, a privately operated 5/80 game.

              Pick 6 - Smallest game currently being played is 6/25 - WV Cash 25, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 3344.66%. Largest is 6/53 - FL Lotto, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 42.05%.

              Suggested payouts for Powerball and MegaMillions games yield payout percentages in the 55% range.

              Looks good.....gl. Any help needed or wanted, let me know - I've got spreadsheets.....

              Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

              Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

               =^.^=

                Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                Chief Bottle Washer
                New Jersey
                United States
                Member #1
                May 31, 2000
                23277 Posts
                Online
                Posted: May 25, 2004, 7:40 pm - IP Logged
                Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on May 25, 2004



                Looks good,give everyones winnings the same value,however, everyone like to talk about their winnings but not about the amount spent to get those winnings.  Would that investment figure also show the amounts invested for the same game when nothing was won?

                RJOh




                Yes.

                 

                Check the State Lottery Report Card
                What grade did your lottery earn?

                 

                Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                  Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                  Chief Bottle Washer
                  New Jersey
                  United States
                  Member #1
                  May 31, 2000
                  23277 Posts
                  Online
                  Posted: May 25, 2004, 7:43 pm - IP Logged
                  Quote: Originally posted by johnph77 on May 25, 2004



                  Comments, not criticism, not in any way, shape and/or form. All Pick 5 and Pick 6 games and limits cited are only those not using bonus or power balls.

                  Pick 3, Pick 4 - suggested payouts in line with standard payout percentages at or near 50%.

                  Pick 5 - Smallest game currently being played is 5/31 - MN Northstar Cash, NM Roadrunner 5, WI Badger 5, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 60.03%. Largest is 5/52 - WA Quinto, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 7.44%. This excludes NV Numbers, a privately operated 5/80 game.

                  Pick 6 - Smallest game currently being played is 6/25 - WV Cash 25, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 3344.66%. Largest is 6/53 - FL Lotto, suggested payouts yield payout percentage of 42.05%.

                  Suggested payouts for Powerball and MegaMillions games yield payout percentages in the 55% range.

                  Looks good.....gl. Any help needed or wanted, let me know - I've got spreadsheets.....





                  Thanks for the comments!  Your are correct Pick 5/6 numbers are NOT those games with bonus balls.  I'm not going to worry about those yet (since I'll probably just use the exact prize structures for those games.  There's also a ton of miscellaneous games that I'm ignoring right now, but those will happen after the basics are done.

                   

                  Check the State Lottery Report Card
                  What grade did your lottery earn?

                   

                  Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                  Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                    Johannesburg
                    South Africa
                    Member #4640
                    May 12, 2004
                    178 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: May 25, 2004, 9:23 pm - IP Logged

                    how many  draws could we post per game at most?

                      Avatar
                      seabrook n.h
                      United States
                      Member #3650
                      February 9, 2004
                      102 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: May 25, 2004, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

                      This looks good to me can`t wait to see the results.  jeff

                        Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                        Chief Bottle Washer
                        New Jersey
                        United States
                        Member #1
                        May 31, 2000
                        23277 Posts
                        Online
                        Posted: May 25, 2004, 9:39 pm - IP Logged
                        Quote: Originally posted by desparado on May 25, 2004



                        how many  draws could we post per game at most?




                        Click on Predictions in the blue bar above and your question is answered fully there.

                         

                        Check the State Lottery Report Card
                        What grade did your lottery earn?

                         

                        Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                        Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                          Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                          Chief Bottle Washer
                          New Jersey
                          United States
                          Member #1
                          May 31, 2000
                          23277 Posts
                          Online
                          Posted: May 25, 2004, 10:57 pm - IP Logged

                          For triples (Pick 3) and quads (Pick 4): my thoughts are to pay double the straight payout, because that would be in keeping with the standard "straight and box" wager for each pick.  (It would be two straight bets in this case.)

                          What do you think?

                           

                          Check the State Lottery Report Card
                          What grade did your lottery earn?

                           

                          Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                          Help eliminate computerized drawings!

                            whodeani's avatar - lightening

                            United States
                            Member #2484
                            October 9, 2003
                            212 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: May 25, 2004, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Looks good to me except how do you discern between someone who would hit 6/6 on a 6/49 Pick 6 and a 6/6 on a 6/36 Pick 6???? Shouldn't someone who hits a 6/49 be worth more than someone who hits a 6/36. Other than that everything looks good to me.

                              Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
                              Chief Bottle Washer
                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #1
                              May 31, 2000
                              23277 Posts
                              Online
                              Posted: May 26, 2004, 12:13 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by whodeani on May 25, 2004


                              Looks good to me except how do you discern between someone who would hit 6/6 on a 6/49 Pick 6 and a 6/6 on a 6/36 Pick 6???? Shouldn't someone who hits a 6/49 be worth more than someone who hits a 6/36. Other than that everything looks good to me.


                              If someone hits a 6 of 6, I could easily manually enter the exact amount.  I would think it would be very rare, so I'm not too worried about it.

                               

                              Check the State Lottery Report Card
                              What grade did your lottery earn?

                               

                              Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
                              Help eliminate computerized drawings!